tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6841517706627642172024-03-12T19:08:35.833-05:00The Original Weather BlogWe didn't invent the weather (God did that)....just the weather blog...Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1956125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-43431019959368977612017-09-22T11:59:00.000-05:002017-09-22T11:59:41.476-05:00We'll be back soon...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com137tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-21055634603766319912013-12-11T09:40:00.003-06:002013-12-11T09:40:46.391-06:00Are Computer Models Getting Better with Snow Forecasts?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSO9NJMNAR8Pv9Z3max2pKG3j6Od4pgOkJ0ckKP4OHEu6uNtro7MrsrWZAHTSFz8mIaU_v4d46QPMQp3XNqdF72eoOoxSOKU1IX09FA2EqNuztkCtSPYiqoE5hZ3SFDVK3HMdxx7_xJh0/s1600/chi_snow.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSO9NJMNAR8Pv9Z3max2pKG3j6Od4pgOkJ0ckKP4OHEu6uNtro7MrsrWZAHTSFz8mIaU_v4d46QPMQp3XNqdF72eoOoxSOKU1IX09FA2EqNuztkCtSPYiqoE5hZ3SFDVK3HMdxx7_xJh0/s400/chi_snow.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I've been tweeting off and on for the last few days about the upcoming snow event for Chicago this morning (photo above courtesy CBS Chicago, shows slick road conditions in Bolingbrook - a Southern suburb of Chicago).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This was the second snow event in the last 10 days (the first was in Minneapolis last week) where nearly all of the short to medium range computer forecast models were very consistent in their snowfall forecasts from a relatively lengthy period out from the event, and did not fluctuate as the event approached. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Long time followers and weather buffs know that the computer models typically have a hard time with snow events, and tend to show large swings from run to run, especially a few days out. So the consistency here was impressive, if not even a bit scary at times...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The screen shot below (click to enlarge) shows a composite of the computer model snowfall forecast runs since midday yesterday. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This particular view is centered on the western suburbs of Chicago, but it applies to most of the city in this particular case.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTx-jlULW_udlbj4384HxdrZ5fYV4_dbdLyYS1A-7xX5AhDplRnlF4wLP1VIGwYKkZytl0_C1pEvk1k-3hIoSpl55btqIOpwBBYbHvy-jjZxE8v4KhxUOPOq73KLe4zQh39O3MZ62S8js/s1600/composite.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTx-jlULW_udlbj4384HxdrZ5fYV4_dbdLyYS1A-7xX5AhDplRnlF4wLP1VIGwYKkZytl0_C1pEvk1k-3hIoSpl55btqIOpwBBYbHvy-jjZxE8v4KhxUOPOq73KLe4zQh39O3MZ62S8js/s400/composite.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I've circled in red the computer model forecast "cluster" of values which generally called for up to 1 inch of snow, on average, this morning. The green line above the red circle, calling for 2-3 inches of snow, is the National Weather Service forecast that most of the public and media are accustomed to using.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Actual snowfall this morning averaged 0.5-1.0 inch at most Chicago area reporting stations. So, t</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">he long and short of this story is that the short to medium range forecast models nailed this one - and they had been forecasting similar values for at least the last 3 days, very consistently.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A similar situation took place in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area on Wednesday of last week, with an actual snowfall of 2 inches at most locations in the central and eastern metro (see map below), and an "official" NWS forecast of as many as 4-6 inches leading up to and during the event. There again, the model runs were very consistent in calling for amounts near 2 inches well ahead of the event and showed very little fluctuation throughout.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2x2kSNK05FpBOV_c6136QB87gU5HPWg4Qkd97oj7Rr2tb0suOwftVmoeFcUau6xFyn7mz7sQGSzfMDIYOeoyHu6hR0Cj-Y8w1ztc-iJYPmcpjCiG4RaUiWOkO1Nhq8aNVvGmZVPBiPzQ/s1600/msp_snow_1204.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2x2kSNK05FpBOV_c6136QB87gU5HPWg4Qkd97oj7Rr2tb0suOwftVmoeFcUau6xFyn7mz7sQGSzfMDIYOeoyHu6hR0Cj-Y8w1ztc-iJYPmcpjCiG4RaUiWOkO1Nhq8aNVvGmZVPBiPzQ/s400/msp_snow_1204.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So, are the short to medium range models getting better at handling snow forecasts? Various tweaks, software and hardware upgrades were made to most of the models over the last 6-12 months, and I think we are indeed seeing some positive results.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is obviously not a scientific study by any means. I only use the 2 most recent cases in the Chicago and Minneapolis areas because my company provides forecast and storm warning services for snow removal companies, hospitals and schools in both of those areas, so I naturally keep a close eye on them.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I will say that I am very impressed with how the models have handled the smaller, fast moving (and typically more difficult to forecast) events so far this young season. Granted, we have yet to see a "major" storm in either area, and I am anxious to see how the models will perform leading up to a larger event this winter. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Stay tuned for more!</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-18730576261202360632013-11-17T07:06:00.002-06:002013-11-17T07:10:02.225-06:00Rare "High Risk" for Tornadoes/Severe Storms Midwest & OH Valley Today...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrV569gBjfetsJo2WzA8MqDG3qI7ZWaSRFux6SzEmp4B7kBkrjZSGuQqqV_iwKee8j_jmT5mPI2_DyfZQO6UifAPD0r6-RyoJQOhb8b3shAROY2NFFIgDSiysPkd0hdr0TuECNOFqd_c8/s1600/high_spc.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrV569gBjfetsJo2WzA8MqDG3qI7ZWaSRFux6SzEmp4B7kBkrjZSGuQqqV_iwKee8j_jmT5mPI2_DyfZQO6UifAPD0r6-RyoJQOhb8b3shAROY2NFFIgDSiysPkd0hdr0TuECNOFqd_c8/s400/high_spc.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A rarely issued (especially for November) "High Risk" of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms has been issued by the SPC for today in the Midwest and Ohio Valley region.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As we mentioned yesterday, please stay very alert in this region today. Storms will be fast moving, and due to the threat of extensive and intense wind damage with any severe storm, I highly recommend that you <span style="color: red;"><b>treat a Severe Thunderstorm Warning just as you would normally treat a Tornado Warning today</b></span>, taking the same sheltering action when in harms way.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Thunderstorms will get underway by mid morning near the Western edge of the outlook areas, and race East/Northeast this afternoon and evening. The highest risk of tornadoes is within the "High" risk area, with widespread wind damage the primary threat otherwise, and extending throughout the "moderate" and "high" risk areas.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If you or someone you know will be attending the Ravens/Bears game in Chicago today, please make sure to <a href="http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/2011/06/severe-weather-safety-and-preparedness.html"><span style="color: blue;">identify sheltering options</span></a> as you enter the stadium and move there quickly if your smartphone app indicates that a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Warning has been issued for that location.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Below is a forecast radar image from the high resolution HRRR model valid at kick-off (12 Noon CST):</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVrwg4z2XgqG4CXSpVcIFINyJdz3BK3HyTqJ__89kGfUsnqeWX4J-m1MXS2eToh9Pzfm9jS_LuCut8auZqtfDV30KZS7UCna7lefrvtxfuhAbZ1mrIeJ_74wJoGTFa5k1ghqbG_v4HGMU/s1600/chi_hrrr.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVrwg4z2XgqG4CXSpVcIFINyJdz3BK3HyTqJ__89kGfUsnqeWX4J-m1MXS2eToh9Pzfm9jS_LuCut8auZqtfDV30KZS7UCna7lefrvtxfuhAbZ1mrIeJ_74wJoGTFa5k1ghqbG_v4HGMU/s400/chi_hrrr.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If this model verifies, and there is a good chance it will, several possible supercell thunderstorms will be approaching the stadium from the West at kick-off.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The situation will evolve rapidly from midday, with a squall line forecast to develop across much of the moderate/high risk area by 3pm CST:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpEW5SU3LoMy5hi59dEL9ClJ-WH_q_fklSgimQwbCDeEuUM4Nx3vy5gl2lN_7G9jxerwBPnF3nK2Sa_I6evulLXky7Uam_HXsgvJvNHxIrGHNr0oi6vCBP8uPrLcPDcji27ZpPmOUNtj8/s1600/hrrr_21z.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpEW5SU3LoMy5hi59dEL9ClJ-WH_q_fklSgimQwbCDeEuUM4Nx3vy5gl2lN_7G9jxerwBPnF3nK2Sa_I6evulLXky7Uam_HXsgvJvNHxIrGHNr0oi6vCBP8uPrLcPDcji27ZpPmOUNtj8/s400/hrrr_21z.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The highest tornado potential will be with isolated storms that form initially from mid to late morning, and then isolated cells ahead of the line this afternoon. Widespread, potentially significant, wind damage can be expected with all severe storms today, and especially as the more solid line forms this afternoon.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Thunderstorms will be very fast moving today across the entire threat area, so there will be little reaction time available. If a warning is issued for your area, please seek immediate shelter.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For more information from 'The Original</span><i style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:</i></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-78696497746855171722013-11-16T10:40:00.003-06:002013-11-16T10:42:33.346-06:00Regional Severe Weather Episode Likely for N. MO, S.E. IA and W. IL Tonight....<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For good reason, a lot of attention is being paid to the expected severe weather episode across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region for tomorrow. As I mentioned in a <a href="http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/2013/11/significant-severe-weather-episode.html"><span style="color: blue;">post earlier this morning</span></a>, that event has the potential to impact a large number of people with widespread, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">With all of the attention being paid to tomorrow, I'm afraid that another event that appears to be taking shape for late this evening and tonight is being flat overlooked or quickly "brushed over". Below is the latest WeatherGuidance severe weather outlook for this evening and tonight:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4C6R7_V5ZIEhyphenhyphenphT_onTdeVFFPM0lcKkPMMUbDctpJ83gZzO6YoNpkT_4GJJN_DvxnbXesVoyEVltXBekFhaMhyphenhyphenp4mU51GqKCOUGVD42Hhl1rIfSiI-I2QcS64u3VEolvM4fOb7cAs9k/s1600/svr_day1_pvw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4C6R7_V5ZIEhyphenhyphenphT_onTdeVFFPM0lcKkPMMUbDctpJ83gZzO6YoNpkT_4GJJN_DvxnbXesVoyEVltXBekFhaMhyphenhyphenp4mU51GqKCOUGVD42Hhl1rIfSiI-I2QcS64u3VEolvM4fOb7cAs9k/s400/svr_day1_pvw.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;"><b>I am particularly concerned because 100% of the associated threat will take place after dark, and a significant portion of the threat will take place after Midnight</b></span>, into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Below is a forecast radar image from the high resolution NAM computer model, valid 8:00 PM this evening. While it's important not to take the indicated storm positions literally, you get the idea that there will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms beginning to develop over northwestern Missouri around or shortly after that time period:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzTSUPWKsfvZN1pPfEdU3voO73gm9QvZ_TZ_H-Opm4iDZZ12MnVq8tqmrYBeXe6CIAcp27WHALbOJZwLCmmqV30Vm0cIc6K8Um4P-4_PT_fXhMTsG5O3EVxnGlp0na5dOgmtbzTpPiQ_4/s1600/nam_02z_sun.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzTSUPWKsfvZN1pPfEdU3voO73gm9QvZ_TZ_H-Opm4iDZZ12MnVq8tqmrYBeXe6CIAcp27WHALbOJZwLCmmqV30Vm0cIc6K8Um4P-4_PT_fXhMTsG5O3EVxnGlp0na5dOgmtbzTpPiQ_4/s400/nam_02z_sun.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Jump ahead to 12 Midnight CST, and quite a cluster of strong to severe storms is depicted over southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBR607gZOLuDV8tqDlrcf7jJIQJFFPRGqZCa2ik6AfYWaGEyGfP_ODw-oZ7hBYAdbDy2bJudSk5aq-aLwB2VBSFZfKgDvxkz779BpR9QVpfJuOR5zFdPtRxgrnKdv4uYpe5YCEzAz6HBk/s1600/nam_06z_sun.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBR607gZOLuDV8tqDlrcf7jJIQJFFPRGqZCa2ik6AfYWaGEyGfP_ODw-oZ7hBYAdbDy2bJudSk5aq-aLwB2VBSFZfKgDvxkz779BpR9QVpfJuOR5zFdPtRxgrnKdv4uYpe5YCEzAz6HBk/s400/nam_06z_sun.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As these storms initially form late this evening and early tonight, large hail will be the primary threat. As we move on in time toward and after 12 Midnight, a risk of tornadoes will also increase, as low to mid level wind profiles become more favorable for such development.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As I pointed out earlier, it is important not to take the forecast radar positions literally, so in general, folks across the Northern third of Missouri, the Southeastern third of Iowa, and west-central/northwest Illinois should be particularly alert for thunderstorm development late this evening and tonight.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If you live in or near the green shaded area on the top image, <a href="http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/make-sure-that-you-have-way-to-receive.html"><span style="color: blue;">please make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings overnight</span></a> tonight, and have a sheltering plan in place before you go to bed, that way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.</span><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-9460466990663508952013-11-16T09:17:00.001-06:002013-11-16T09:43:04.375-06:00Significant Severe Weather Episode Likely Sunday Across the OH/TN Valley Region...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjXPur41UvveH3Yp_7VtDgXrJTXAQWOlejp2l7IKMt1i35j2hqk3k8nzk7h3VQQULjko3zPJZwWMcK56tAKC6tS5jJg6cKIAnxLYjDsXdZ9wzK4ktAxgYXuEDG4JHWsKFsjgSp0SfYWao/s1600/svr_day2_pvw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjXPur41UvveH3Yp_7VtDgXrJTXAQWOlejp2l7IKMt1i35j2hqk3k8nzk7h3VQQULjko3zPJZwWMcK56tAKC6tS5jJg6cKIAnxLYjDsXdZ9wzK4ktAxgYXuEDG4JHWsKFsjgSp0SfYWao/s400/svr_day2_pvw.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Late fall is known for an occasional outbreak of severe weather, and unfortunately it looks like tomorrow will be just such a case. While the threat of severe weather will exist generally along and East of the Mississippi River, the most widespread and potentially dangerous situation appears to be taking shape for much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region, as indicated in yellow on the above image.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">By far, wind damage will be the primary threat from this event. <b><span style="color: red;">The potential exists for widespread, significant wind damage</span></b>, particularly within the yellow shaded area on the image above.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A few tornadoes will also be possible, particularly early in the event when a few isolated storms may form along or ahead of the main line. All storms, as well as any tornadoes, will be very fast moving, which will further increase the risk of people being caught off guard if they're not paying attention to the weather. The primary risk will occur from afternoon into the evening, then spreading East overnight.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Below is the NAM forecast model depiction of what the radar may look like at 3:00 PM CST tomorrow:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQrGPSqdXaI18_wFkLNvUyXGMQLW8GR3PV2_W6f1RonULiX-XlMVx9TvVSOqrWcPaW7jS4kVDBYbCz08IxKG9MRdBfG5w_rZZo_PmYFoM5G-gJF77_E1vsUVVbrfF4vhExrBH4IYFniRs/s1600/nam_21z_sun.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQrGPSqdXaI18_wFkLNvUyXGMQLW8GR3PV2_W6f1RonULiX-XlMVx9TvVSOqrWcPaW7jS4kVDBYbCz08IxKG9MRdBfG5w_rZZo_PmYFoM5G-gJF77_E1vsUVVbrfF4vhExrBH4IYFniRs/s400/nam_21z_sun.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As you can see, the model is already depicting a line of severe thunderstorms along the cold front by that time, but if you look closely toward the Southern end of the line, you'll see a few isolated cells, as well as a few isolated cells ahead of the line over Indiana and Kentucky. While it's important not to focus on the exact locations of where storms are depicted by the model, it does give us a good idea as to the overall scenario that is likely to take shape. Any isolated storms that form would need to be watched closely for tornado potential.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In addition to the "traditional" tornado threat associated with any isolated supercells that are able to form ahead of the main line, this is likely to be a situation where numerous "spin-ups" will occur along bowing segments within the overall line of storms throughout the event. While any tornado touch downs with these line segments are likely to be brief, the associated wind damage potential will be intense.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If you live across the areas indicated above or have travel plans into this region on Sunday, especially from midday Sunday into the afternoon and evening, <a href="http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/make-sure-that-you-have-way-to-receive.html"><span style="color: blue;">please stay aware of the weather</span></a> and be ready to seek immediate shelter if you find yourself in a dangerous situation. Storms will be very fast moving, so there will be little time to react in many cases, unfortunately. <span style="color: red;"><b>Due to the potential for intense damaging winds, I also recommend treating a Severe Thunderstorm Warning as you would a Tornado Warning</b></span>, especially in the yellow shaded area on the top image.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-74471894245413137292013-10-04T10:39:00.002-05:002013-10-04T10:42:04.177-05:00Potent Round of Severe Weather Likely Later Today/Tonight...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEida7F5_eqCDVcTiLHMInYsKXsw3U21hNA9Esu81R_PWHGKuzHWQg2FdE9pw5PvZJbqOPzRogg6Qo5buDR_kChWSGTU1dYAWbwQdS9gp1ZJZS14uvJTX6XyWowmcwCLkLIbYYar5jwgQb4/s1600/spc_tor.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEida7F5_eqCDVcTiLHMInYsKXsw3U21hNA9Esu81R_PWHGKuzHWQg2FdE9pw5PvZJbqOPzRogg6Qo5buDR_kChWSGTU1dYAWbwQdS9gp1ZJZS14uvJTX6XyWowmcwCLkLIbYYar5jwgQb4/s400/spc_tor.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">After a preview yesterday evening in southeast Nebraska, severe weather activity has waned a bit over the last several hours. However, folks in the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the Midwest should not let their guards down - an even more potent threat of severe weather is on tap later this afternoon into this evening and tonight.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today and tonight, and is the portion that specifically addresses the potential for tornadoes, which will be highest within the brown and yellow shaded areas. A strong tornado or two is also possible, mainly within the black hatched area.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A threat for large hail and damaging winds will extend well to the South into portions of Oklahoma and northwest Texas as well, with some of the hail likely to exceed 2 inches in diameter in the black hatched areas on this image:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWpo_2BI_vHyACiFk-pYxRf_6Ln32b1tPs99WTKW2sZBTjOQAvZL-7B7diBOMEw-ofggrXV_XTQzohcU6MuxzyzxFFD4ScbkalzRKp5lm7iQJ7FuBmUqh0NVUjVco-DTQ73drLFTlSgtM/s1600/spc_hail.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWpo_2BI_vHyACiFk-pYxRf_6Ln32b1tPs99WTKW2sZBTjOQAvZL-7B7diBOMEw-ofggrXV_XTQzohcU6MuxzyzxFFD4ScbkalzRKp5lm7iQJ7FuBmUqh0NVUjVco-DTQ73drLFTlSgtM/s400/spc_hail.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It's been awhile since we've seen a pronounced severe weather threat across a good chunk of the nation, so please be sure to keep an eye to the sky and listen for local updates and warnings as the afternoon and evening progresses.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Unfortunately, a good deal of the activity will take place after dark and into tonight. If you live across this region, please make sure that you <a href="http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/make-sure-that-you-have-way-to-receive.html"><span style="color: blue;">have a way to receive weather warnings at night</span></a>.</span><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-81905090340053871512013-10-02T13:07:00.002-05:002013-10-02T13:08:42.879-05:00Tropical System Forming Near Cuba Bears Watching...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU8MdhcI4vilZLBRYEpwX9I2kmWjHEgJf2_TdwGlDr6UnAQ58fJ088lDccL_mM2R0wfwPtd1Fq33N9OY1kFbO19OqH1SvgOCHmvfGh2owzTjUpOT-YjsQnhxoPxSztfhChyWaew6KIFbA/s1600/invest.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU8MdhcI4vilZLBRYEpwX9I2kmWjHEgJf2_TdwGlDr6UnAQ58fJ088lDccL_mM2R0wfwPtd1Fq33N9OY1kFbO19OqH1SvgOCHmvfGh2owzTjUpOT-YjsQnhxoPxSztfhChyWaew6KIFbA/s400/invest.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The tropical system forming just Southwest of the Western tip of Cuba (as shown in the visible satellite image above) is becoming much better organized as of early afternoon today.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I fully expect this system to be named a Depression or Tropical Storm later today.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This system could eventually impact portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast, most likely from Mississippi on Eastward:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-fuj3Pa7Kv0IPds-qHczHgLPzZVRcz3WkT16EH-uJUGV0mRisQGq4SaW7AkKRjL_F-2Zj_zWYeb2_UDLu59zBIZRv5WMD2gjHLECeo56QwcC5ztHSfqAa9Qkx5r2zlIbY5j_TttXhR90/s1600/invest_track.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-fuj3Pa7Kv0IPds-qHczHgLPzZVRcz3WkT16EH-uJUGV0mRisQGq4SaW7AkKRjL_F-2Zj_zWYeb2_UDLu59zBIZRv5WMD2gjHLECeo56QwcC5ztHSfqAa9Qkx5r2zlIbY5j_TttXhR90/s400/invest_track.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There are many variables still at play here, but at this time it appears the most likely U.S. impacts would take place during the 2nd half of this weekend into the first part of next week.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If you live along the U.S. Gulf Coast in the indicated areas, please keep an eye on this system over the coming days. We'll post pertinent information as it becomes better organized...</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-15777881089731502492013-09-27T10:05:00.000-05:002013-09-27T10:05:08.936-05:00Spring-Like Severe Weather Threat Later Today...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtGwdA64gC4VyChKNfuOuyTP6tQYFcEZF8tqBuUohLbl5GhKG3qDIYpvrHB0L4HPOROd43w3_UmA2bw3WUcudcu7Bq9SPGBKKCMPReYykRjUaIB4Bt_v6JksDnlDd_coIHfnaIAqPHUiI/s1600/tor_fri.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtGwdA64gC4VyChKNfuOuyTP6tQYFcEZF8tqBuUohLbl5GhKG3qDIYpvrHB0L4HPOROd43w3_UmA2bw3WUcudcu7Bq9SPGBKKCMPReYykRjUaIB4Bt_v6JksDnlDd_coIHfnaIAqPHUiI/s400/tor_fri.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A spring-like severe weather situation is expected to take shape later this afternoon and this evening across the Plains, including a threat for tornadoes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Large hail and damaging winds can be expected with severe storms that fire from western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle region later today, and a few tornadoes are possible, especially within the green and brown shaded areas on the image above.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is a situation where the highest tornado potential may not develop for 2-3 hours after storms initially form, so i</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">f you plan to attend a high school football game in the area this evening, be sure to dust off the </span><a href="http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/make-sure-that-you-have-way-to-receive.html" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">severe weather alert app</span></a><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> just in case, and keep an eye to the sky!</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-6868405976869964182013-09-26T17:22:00.002-05:002013-09-26T17:22:22.111-05:00First "Big" Snow of the Season in Butte, MT<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivCU9VZZRQxN2MbXg8jVhGFbiWe1iayXJzCvd3wvuMwjTNNyXWEqtrCb2m7VCFHa7R5YpyOktx6XEm0AoO0rBQhcLUAUtrSharuM6JD62p_54LhrXllFl0hVCxGoteWJX_3d9HieGZzlc/s1600/butte_snow.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivCU9VZZRQxN2MbXg8jVhGFbiWe1iayXJzCvd3wvuMwjTNNyXWEqtrCb2m7VCFHa7R5YpyOktx6XEm0AoO0rBQhcLUAUtrSharuM6JD62p_54LhrXllFl0hVCxGoteWJX_3d9HieGZzlc/s400/butte_snow.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">...where 18 inches of the white stuff fell overnight and this morning (photo taken just South of town, via twitter).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The latest run of the ECMWF ("European") computer forecast model calls for the first locally heavy snows of the season to spread Southeast across much of the remainder of the central and northern Rockies over the next 5-10 days:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJheDkrMiI6Z61h05Ynar_ddMmPQwi8G25YGWCrS1jaFUfrR9n1sFvhqJqbZmpmX_qQrkVNAD4pMch9tnAuOty7SptHBvs1mZIzXgQdXScungwuO2bB9_a6tZbN_51UrT_vQtwqj4O6Q0/s1600/ecmwf_snow.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJheDkrMiI6Z61h05Ynar_ddMmPQwi8G25YGWCrS1jaFUfrR9n1sFvhqJqbZmpmX_qQrkVNAD4pMch9tnAuOty7SptHBvs1mZIzXgQdXScungwuO2bB9_a6tZbN_51UrT_vQtwqj4O6Q0/s400/ecmwf_snow.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-32645505299102479702013-09-21T17:10:00.001-05:002013-09-21T17:10:36.296-05:00"Hurricane Drought" Continues In the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico...<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">...and the only people complaining about it are a select few of the "usual suspects" in the mainstream media.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The system that I blogged about at the beginning of the week (or last weekend?) in the Gulf of Mexico is in the process of being absorbed by a cool front at this time, so it no longer poses a threat of organizing into a tropical system:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGH1hM_gfiqeWXbqn9K3BdhLZ2wSy1h5tvZHlYiwdCqiJSj8_r79zcT7NadARufat6E_3t2Yuque5XPkyUOfCHTG68iSnNyQiPVmTlK_vlmYVOHDjIHzzjpsRwU5UnOta57JgNmehRm_E/s1600/gulf_stlt.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGH1hM_gfiqeWXbqn9K3BdhLZ2wSy1h5tvZHlYiwdCqiJSj8_r79zcT7NadARufat6E_3t2Yuque5XPkyUOfCHTG68iSnNyQiPVmTlK_vlmYVOHDjIHzzjpsRwU5UnOta57JgNmehRm_E/s400/gulf_stlt.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Moisture from this system as well as the remnants of a tropical system in the Pacific did produce widespread, beneficial rainfall across much of southcentral and eastern Texas on Thursday and Friday, with 3-6 inches deposited in a good chunk of the Edwards Aquifer recharge zone (which lies immediately to the West of the Austin/San Antonio corridor).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The image below is the storm total rainfall estimate from the dual-pol radar at the New Braunfels airport (between Austin and San Antonio, scale in inches at the left hand side):</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieWd0Err_sQwjUWq_rzwlwfOg7HGMylGLqnHVZUiCd2M2TP8T8sVk5YOP130jvC6oW0w5AvbAEiAbyROnc1u139pAusdKXnE1oZPmfOPPfmANfdzHG2Ae5LeexsWsPdG4uHg_FSLjJlLo/s1600/ewx_rafl.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieWd0Err_sQwjUWq_rzwlwfOg7HGMylGLqnHVZUiCd2M2TP8T8sVk5YOP130jvC6oW0w5AvbAEiAbyROnc1u139pAusdKXnE1oZPmfOPPfmANfdzHG2Ae5LeexsWsPdG4uHg_FSLjJlLo/s400/ewx_rafl.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So, what are the prospects for organized tropical weather in the upcoming week to 10 days? Pretty low the way it looks right now, but we'll keep an eye on it...</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-64965150254255720542013-09-18T11:17:00.000-05:002013-09-18T11:17:00.166-05:00Keeping an Eye on 1st Hurricane Potential of Season for U.S. Gulf Coast...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvaD_3FHxGUjfD2CdYm6xn286bbD7EmRYdHK9Jk5WU4nOAGHtlS95Zd4zNmOpp5kBAr6vdFVsrKJcj0SWX1BiEgfx6aEwVhvy8LaVkGJpwWrAmfuJfmktZm77TpiDVakEjHNyanr0yKk4/s1600/gulf_stlt.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="345" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvaD_3FHxGUjfD2CdYm6xn286bbD7EmRYdHK9Jk5WU4nOAGHtlS95Zd4zNmOpp5kBAr6vdFVsrKJcj0SWX1BiEgfx6aEwVhvy8LaVkGJpwWrAmfuJfmktZm77TpiDVakEjHNyanr0yKk4/s400/gulf_stlt.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">An area of disturbed weather is taking shape in the tropics near the Yucatan Peninsula today (red circled area on the visible satellite image above). A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit the region this afternoon, and this system is very likely to be named a Tropical Depression or Storm in the next 24-48 hours.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Computer model forecast solutions are all over the place with this system so far, but the general consensus in the last 12-18 hours is focusing on eventual, direct impacts on the northcentral or northeast Gulf Coast (and I agree with that assessment at this time):</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiEqRR7ng2ymaLYwBPFdA5YTbx7brIgUIuVDdCG2RqNKyOOikAmL7IxlzL3YMrzaTq8EWF3VeXSr6L_Fieb623AvF93AM_EqFHHDYU7stIGMO4nTnkdEgtSAP7RZ2RqIf3opsCm0K_Q-s/s1600/95L_spag.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiEqRR7ng2ymaLYwBPFdA5YTbx7brIgUIuVDdCG2RqNKyOOikAmL7IxlzL3YMrzaTq8EWF3VeXSr6L_Fieb623AvF93AM_EqFHHDYU7stIGMO4nTnkdEgtSAP7RZ2RqIf3opsCm0K_Q-s/s400/95L_spag.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The HWRF computer model is the most "bullish" so far, forecasting a hit by a formidable hurricane along the Florida coast late this weekend or early next week:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjJydowrLed58arms6JXGgVjfnlCNVvugXBIAlvDMYbJEXwNkLNejvEgV_yYji_qCA4xksmIBgGygtkxMteEg9N3xG0w2u8VN6kP9VFKTXMvLTrV8Sk4-LslWGboYgFdwK0u3jGE57ozo/s1600/95l_hwrf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjJydowrLed58arms6JXGgVjfnlCNVvugXBIAlvDMYbJEXwNkLNejvEgV_yYji_qCA4xksmIBgGygtkxMteEg9N3xG0w2u8VN6kP9VFKTXMvLTrV8Sk4-LslWGboYgFdwK0u3jGE57ozo/s400/95l_hwrf.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I would caution that "upgrades" in the HWRF model earlier this year seem to have resulted in its drastically "over forecasting" the intensity of just about every tropical system so far this season. With that said, folks along the Gulf Coast need to keep a close eye on the development of this system, as some degree of impact from what will likely be a hurricane can be expected later this weekend or early next week. The good news is that we still have some time to watch the system and gauge its true intensity before it directly impacts the U.S. coast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In the meantime, moisture from this system will spread West into an already water logged eastern Mexico, as well as much of southern Texas and eventually the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next 2-3 days. The accumulated rainfall forecast from the WPC for the period today through 7pm CDT Saturday is shown below:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfUUof3NwY0nMrik2STrBNAZDLuFcVj5NFdexQNj1RytGwjnAt038wYgDxVW_R9scuStEy843XpfG9EibwGzsPkKomJe8E1VLMiYE3bquQsj0047SgJ6VpGyWTIR49QK2rb4NdMB9BgE0/s1600/qpf_00z_sun.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfUUof3NwY0nMrik2STrBNAZDLuFcVj5NFdexQNj1RytGwjnAt038wYgDxVW_R9scuStEy843XpfG9EibwGzsPkKomJe8E1VLMiYE3bquQsj0047SgJ6VpGyWTIR49QK2rb4NdMB9BgE0/s400/qpf_00z_sun.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Again, if you live across the Gulf Coast from Texas through Florida, and especially the northcentral and northeastern parts of the Gulf Coast, please keep a very close eye on this system over the coming days. As always, you can track the progression of this and any other system with potential U.S. impacts on WeatherGuidance's <a href="http://www.weatherguidance.com/Tropical_Atlantic_Home.html"><span style="color: blue;">Tropical Weather Homepage</span></a>.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-67152334571092530162013-09-18T10:34:00.001-05:002013-09-18T10:34:46.976-05:00"Shocking" Photo Illustrates Lightning Danger at Outdoor Arenas<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinT2Zc8Q_hr11J52kAkuWE8tQuMoghBCnMvZWi-PMOG8bmEg_zKwaBYsEFX6NToUnd-OROzudpi09bPWIAhb-_ZmeG_2vN0rjAF-FEZo837lNHfUWb7Hd-lUDcd__X_6gDhlMdGQig_B4/s1600/ltg_football.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinT2Zc8Q_hr11J52kAkuWE8tQuMoghBCnMvZWi-PMOG8bmEg_zKwaBYsEFX6NToUnd-OROzudpi09bPWIAhb-_ZmeG_2vN0rjAF-FEZo837lNHfUWb7Hd-lUDcd__X_6gDhlMdGQig_B4/s400/ltg_football.JPG" width="275" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lightning struck a tree literally feet away from the bleachers at a high school football game in Orlando, FL this past Friday.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For full details, please read the post on <a href="http://weatherguidance.blogspot.com/"><span style="color: blue;">WeatherGuidance's blogpage</span></a>.</span><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-42381352089724569392013-09-04T12:13:00.002-05:002013-09-04T12:13:49.384-05:00Another Way to Look at Tornado Coverage<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">University of Florida Geography Professor James Elsner posted an <a href="http://hurricaneclimate.blogspot.com/2013/08/total-area-covered-by-tornadoes-by-year.html"><span style="color: blue;">interesting .gif animation</span></a> on his blog recently. It shows the approximate area of all U.S. tornadoes by year from 1950-2011, using a red circle centered on Oklahoma City as a point of reference:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBOuEa1dWkmYXhUAdm4CCoiEpLnoMLSL3ZqRagzsUMzGnlTfMcyGUhZneATAp4-SEjAepigRZB1exRLb1PcLpnZ1ueeOuPrv_wBSyT9pndgy02dPVxiv3sGUsbDMnrxdP2Lsw9h6-J1Rg/s1600/elsner_tors.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBOuEa1dWkmYXhUAdm4CCoiEpLnoMLSL3ZqRagzsUMzGnlTfMcyGUhZneATAp4-SEjAepigRZB1exRLb1PcLpnZ1ueeOuPrv_wBSyT9pndgy02dPVxiv3sGUsbDMnrxdP2Lsw9h6-J1Rg/s400/elsner_tors.png" width="381" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I didn't choose 1988 for any particular reason, it just happened to be the year that was up on the rotation when I took the screen shot. To view James' blog post with the full .gif animation, please <a href="http://hurricaneclimate.blogspot.com/2013/08/total-area-covered-by-tornadoes-by-year.html"><span style="color: blue;">go here</span></a>.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-56068870179740946432013-09-03T09:51:00.001-05:002013-09-03T09:51:59.858-05:00From the "Don't Try This At Home" Dept. - Waterspout near Pensacola, FL Yesterday...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This boater (egged on by the videographer/passenger you can hear in the background) got way too close for comfort to a waterspout near Pensacola, FL yesterday. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While waterspouts may seem weaker than a land-based tornado, they can very, very easily flip a boat over before you even know what hit you (literally).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For more information from 'The Original</span><i style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:</i></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-4579773593802885532013-09-02T10:03:00.001-05:002013-09-02T10:04:59.242-05:00Tornado Strikes Koshigaya, Saitama Region - Near Tokyo...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNFICbsuTH5QYRJJKLMvyL1x4rLkpSzL3696GzhPqHT8m-BJ8K6yc_MdPwBD3NpSlKCnBWowHV0vhq_cuSJv3yOurUOW8W0W2y2FR97dgsL_xafHcssi6VpLoRFdFyaQhKjdOgzDQrk2Y/s1600/tokyo_screen_grab.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNFICbsuTH5QYRJJKLMvyL1x4rLkpSzL3696GzhPqHT8m-BJ8K6yc_MdPwBD3NpSlKCnBWowHV0vhq_cuSJv3yOurUOW8W0W2y2FR97dgsL_xafHcssi6VpLoRFdFyaQhKjdOgzDQrk2Y/s400/tokyo_screen_grab.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A strong tornado struck the Koshigaya region in Saitama Prefecture, to the North of Tokyo, Japan earlier today (local time). The above screen grab was taken from the following video that was recently posted to YouTube:</span><br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/sbfV0A2kGns" width="420"></iframe>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Here is another YouTube video of the tornado from a different perspective (videography is not as good as the one above, but still revealing at times):</span><br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/uc4aXSZatFU" width="420"></iframe>
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Damage is reported as widespread in the region, with regional media indicating 400+ buildings damaged and over 60 people injured.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The following photos of some of the damage were posted to twitter by Robert Speta, a U.S. meteorologist who is working in the area:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV1guAp2PtefOFWPo9m6mLlLECv4FZ66z-4gPeuvv10_v6TPVSJryMidfChAYi0IzpdAifXKJJsI1iyiX-dcIfCWs1XoW-hPrbf9h9ZQlbHXPagoF-_QQqqVrYvWmmex4f9-LpBeGSy_o/s1600/saitama_dmg_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV1guAp2PtefOFWPo9m6mLlLECv4FZ66z-4gPeuvv10_v6TPVSJryMidfChAYi0IzpdAifXKJJsI1iyiX-dcIfCWs1XoW-hPrbf9h9ZQlbHXPagoF-_QQqqVrYvWmmex4f9-LpBeGSy_o/s400/saitama_dmg_1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwG212qdHMai_xnk7K-A-CC_j6OFPEuQDFQkZf_cAF0tcw2SrG6LFSdAYYHNdzsoEF_Rn_lPxxcmSU9sm0r2E8NcLex7ojF1dapC3agQckfBBgSpIvMVton3VQcGqkrG2T0DFmv2UuOvY/s1600/dmg_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwG212qdHMai_xnk7K-A-CC_j6OFPEuQDFQkZf_cAF0tcw2SrG6LFSdAYYHNdzsoEF_Rn_lPxxcmSU9sm0r2E8NcLex7ojF1dapC3agQckfBBgSpIvMVton3VQcGqkrG2T0DFmv2UuOvY/s400/dmg_2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Asahi Shimbun news agency posted the following damage photos:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidwHIUuCPwNXytspl8sgQqPCeX-kWwmh1oSM2yKTpE_TZ_ZmJu3aDdZZYWGlcOBg41QEc9ezYcO4AxeW-eofmV1NamYJSlUog0PP4EHt2S1J7FnKy66Zsc36vEYwx6Rc2fmDORBubo7_I/s1600/tokyo_dmg_3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidwHIUuCPwNXytspl8sgQqPCeX-kWwmh1oSM2yKTpE_TZ_ZmJu3aDdZZYWGlcOBg41QEc9ezYcO4AxeW-eofmV1NamYJSlUog0PP4EHt2S1J7FnKy66Zsc36vEYwx6Rc2fmDORBubo7_I/s400/tokyo_dmg_3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMXZ8BRYVrqqyTyopPxml6-ryFcgEb12fOD9yliIwWTMa1SCwCna7cb75HtBZ2hamvRAqTPF4YIGx-KI7NfUexPuSNkXhrZbY4oaboxAfXYrinzIp3Z8p6Qm6omiljjUNC75gtmR8e754/s1600/tokyo_dmg_4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMXZ8BRYVrqqyTyopPxml6-ryFcgEb12fOD9yliIwWTMa1SCwCna7cb75HtBZ2hamvRAqTPF4YIGx-KI7NfUexPuSNkXhrZbY4oaboxAfXYrinzIp3Z8p6Qm6omiljjUNC75gtmR8e754/s400/tokyo_dmg_4.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Local radar (via Robert Speta on twitter) showed an apparent hook echo as the storm moved Northeast across the area:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhN7nBIURC3asDwbFBybD65DyfFflB2vI-HZw1VJ1_0dakwHVXhcUFHemRUwst0uqlVo8QMZVUQkI9XAACTmDhgUzXgXaM20IcCz63mRfGL_lvvs4s7GXJzVjayxcBR_8XhjDDrSx-1LcI/s1600/tokyo_radar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhN7nBIURC3asDwbFBybD65DyfFflB2vI-HZw1VJ1_0dakwHVXhcUFHemRUwst0uqlVo8QMZVUQkI9XAACTmDhgUzXgXaM20IcCz63mRfGL_lvvs4s7GXJzVjayxcBR_8XhjDDrSx-1LcI/s400/tokyo_radar.jpg" width="396" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Reportedly, over 30,000 households continue to be without power at this time.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Tornadoes are not unheard of in this area, but are unusual, especially compared to activity in the U.S. The most deadly tornado in recent years took place on November 7, 2006 when 9 people were killed as a tornado struck the Saroma, Hokkaido region.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">On May 6 of last year, a tornado struck the Tsukuba, Ibaraki region, killing a 14 year old boy and damaging over 800 homes. An article on that tornado was posted on this blog at the time and <a href="http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/strong-tornado-strikes-tsukuba-japan.html"><span style="color: blue;">can be found here</span></a>.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-4796500915211863942013-08-28T10:10:00.001-05:002013-08-28T11:33:39.265-05:0023 Years Ago: The Only F-5 Tornado to Occur in August: Plainfield, IL<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcAWOMouFv9HPBPCdQ5dol33KUYXcSrxXHtxfS9PtMw11bltwjqZqKt1nykEwNBtvUDlkYZ0DHtXIfhO3i1Vo2fefQM2ZjLflyVNnpOVFbS94ZfA_cpK9keuqCVqUSeY75H1jkF-qsH5E/s1600/plainfield_aerial_1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcAWOMouFv9HPBPCdQ5dol33KUYXcSrxXHtxfS9PtMw11bltwjqZqKt1nykEwNBtvUDlkYZ0DHtXIfhO3i1Vo2fefQM2ZjLflyVNnpOVFbS94ZfA_cpK9keuqCVqUSeY75H1jkF-qsH5E/s400/plainfield_aerial_1.png" width="268" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">On this date in 1990, an F-5 tornado struck the community of Plainfield, IL, causing extensive damage. The tornado killed 29 people and injured over 300 more. To this day it is still the only F-5 (<a href="http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/2010/08/weather-resource-ef-scale-of-tornado.html"><span style="color: blue;">now called EF-5</span></a>) tornado known to occur anytime during the month of August in the United States.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Steve L., the pilot of a Cessna 172, took the aerial photos above and below along the damage path in Plainfield a few days after the tornado took place:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtx1-X-jYvN8SGjBG7YciCnmeVpkYEAEvOTvrpN3g4mWNUlMKJjqtsZLvWw7Wp-t38FOufh4y0I3doBMdV9uhwLa76U8grMd1rJn-qfsyvDcqQ4LSG8-xSIMuCMCjEbaWs3P6aD_qrhFs/s1600/plainfield_aerial_2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtx1-X-jYvN8SGjBG7YciCnmeVpkYEAEvOTvrpN3g4mWNUlMKJjqtsZLvWw7Wp-t38FOufh4y0I3doBMdV9uhwLa76U8grMd1rJn-qfsyvDcqQ4LSG8-xSIMuCMCjEbaWs3P6aD_qrhFs/s400/plainfield_aerial_2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix6MbYklZAdVwxylO6h9smE4Qn6VISwyHBWxJC9J85HCumhcbig-u77RBGmSfSr4ISCWVfTRP121j4jcNIkp2g65uRi0W6EnVzSvKYMo6KpFJHGOM9PVXK7I7LWbO5S1tiKRoPh9ZZElE/s1600/plainfield_aerial_3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix6MbYklZAdVwxylO6h9smE4Qn6VISwyHBWxJC9J85HCumhcbig-u77RBGmSfSr4ISCWVfTRP121j4jcNIkp2g65uRi0W6EnVzSvKYMo6KpFJHGOM9PVXK7I7LWbO5S1tiKRoPh9ZZElE/s400/plainfield_aerial_3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The path of destruction was 16 miles long and 600 yards wide at one point as the tornado tracked from Northwest to Southeast across the area during the late afternoon hours:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv9tCxOQOJ8p5V9cXbuIxUEO7FkRnCcNmf-_eW0PaPjEsg31-vnE_ng2KPX2c5blxaMhlVdUPjPMF1YimOucrkItaO5BLblSUpHt14RcEU1iJ8P7AnHYbV2yF6sT8dHnpzWeSSYCN0CLc/s1600/plainfield_track.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv9tCxOQOJ8p5V9cXbuIxUEO7FkRnCcNmf-_eW0PaPjEsg31-vnE_ng2KPX2c5blxaMhlVdUPjPMF1YimOucrkItaO5BLblSUpHt14RcEU1iJ8P7AnHYbV2yF6sT8dHnpzWeSSYCN0CLc/s400/plainfield_track.jpg" width="321" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The National Weather Service (NWS) was heavily criticized for failing to warn of the tornado in this particular event. Back at the time, the area that is now covered solely by the NWS Office in Chicago was split between that office and one in Rockford, IL. The Rockford office performed quite well, giving advanced warning of a tornado that was produced by the same thunderstorm over that part of the region. As the storm moved into NWS Chicago's area of responsibility, the warning performance degraded significantly.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The NWS's own "service assessment" report following the event was rightfully hard on the Chicago office, as you can see in the excerpt below:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6JIqMBB5XAWp2X-Q4XxzAQ9cOATEDAapUAWeZaxTOtZH-d84_EkNOgQrvr9pRwIxuLCKtN5vWbgB7_ma-aM3_QEgqrThSkCa02xEm6m4dzr46h9_7oKWo2SIvMSO2cFfj1oeEG-lEm-4/s1600/plainfield_excerpt.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6JIqMBB5XAWp2X-Q4XxzAQ9cOATEDAapUAWeZaxTOtZH-d84_EkNOgQrvr9pRwIxuLCKtN5vWbgB7_ma-aM3_QEgqrThSkCa02xEm6m4dzr46h9_7oKWo2SIvMSO2cFfj1oeEG-lEm-4/s400/plainfield_excerpt.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">At the time that was the harshest criticism I had ever read in a NWS service assessment (of itself), and I don't think it's been surpassed to this date (if anything, the NWS has become "easier" on itself in subsequent service assessments).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">In its defense, the NWS in Chicago pointed out that the Storm Prediction Center (which was then called the National Severe Storms Forecast Center) had issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch instead of a Tornado Watch for the region that afternoon.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While "only" one supercell storm produced tornadoes within the watch area on that day, the Plainfield EF-5 tornado was one of them. Hence the reason that I always caution folks not to let their guard down, particularly when dealing with an isolated, supercell storm.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">You can be that residents of the area will never forget that day, nor are they likely to let their guard down "just because" there isn't a Tornado Watch in effect - and who can blame them, especially after seeing images like these:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg98ekHCEPcChVjTjr8O1z3ozQFxrzyR0qOVlFW2OYa-gNjdPzd1rOiFjrsvSTjXePZH0v2Hq_ZRbnS_x5qVAJGrv5X6gd7cvckKI_c9B8Y5u3psuutcRTKLytvtELitXqon4SIMPhc4F0/s1600/plainfeld_dmg_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg98ekHCEPcChVjTjr8O1z3ozQFxrzyR0qOVlFW2OYa-gNjdPzd1rOiFjrsvSTjXePZH0v2Hq_ZRbnS_x5qVAJGrv5X6gd7cvckKI_c9B8Y5u3psuutcRTKLytvtELitXqon4SIMPhc4F0/s400/plainfeld_dmg_1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS_ELjTBXBXuij-YNuT5_uv8MHd2Mzi5CuBmT513bJbL3qsu4YI3b2_LeEVdF7wqm10XqjAblq1X-_zh7Z6kaPLFbGJjZgEH_PovOA8Ujbt5HczY6xb0iJ4W8DkZpCd5XH8oA3S5OyDhU/s1600/plainfield_dmg_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS_ELjTBXBXuij-YNuT5_uv8MHd2Mzi5CuBmT513bJbL3qsu4YI3b2_LeEVdF7wqm10XqjAblq1X-_zh7Z6kaPLFbGJjZgEH_PovOA8Ujbt5HczY6xb0iJ4W8DkZpCd5XH8oA3S5OyDhU/s400/plainfield_dmg_2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2KwKKszBNHuIbTrtiyDKfczE0v_umpZYgEY0I2QDzgEnsAiW4X3VoPbESxJWpSC3V7Hw9KlXacDcxOJN23OBa4AJd84WU94lZv0xCmDFe0XjjxpYbiQtnTbl1YbX1mjJQQPfgNV1xW1U/s1600/plainfield_dmg_3.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2KwKKszBNHuIbTrtiyDKfczE0v_umpZYgEY0I2QDzgEnsAiW4X3VoPbESxJWpSC3V7Hw9KlXacDcxOJN23OBa4AJd84WU94lZv0xCmDFe0XjjxpYbiQtnTbl1YbX1mjJQQPfgNV1xW1U/s400/plainfield_dmg_3.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This was also one of the last tornadoes to be examined by the late Dr. Ted Fujita, the preeminent tornado researcher and damage survey pioneer of our lifetime (creator of the Fujita "F-Scale").</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">You may find it surprising that the F-5 rating was arrived upon by Dr. Fujita's examination of damage to a corn field, rather than by any structural damage within the city itself:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf-PYfHHAouRfSRwUfHQ6fh_TU8pKd0cVxhosytPtJOkT51RJ4x0NHfiwohLvi62uRjlXV0gizXlpZlZo99g0rxOX0gxVkzPysy09xTgVq8-knbEQrlzKN8cCWfqyZ3Wbj4-5beFmIgn0/s1600/f5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf-PYfHHAouRfSRwUfHQ6fh_TU8pKd0cVxhosytPtJOkT51RJ4x0NHfiwohLvi62uRjlXV0gizXlpZlZo99g0rxOX0gxVkzPysy09xTgVq8-knbEQrlzKN8cCWfqyZ3Wbj4-5beFmIgn0/s400/f5.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Dr. Fujita gave a presentation on the Plainfield tornado as shown in the following YouTube video. This was one of his last formal presentations which was held at the 3rd Tornado Symposium in Norman, OK back in 1991. I had the great pleasure of attending that meeting and seeing his presentation in person. If you have the time and interest, I highly recommend viewing it at some point as it gives a lot of great information on this event:</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-38012826096536875792013-08-27T10:07:00.002-05:002013-08-27T10:07:26.242-05:00Spectacular Photos of Haboob in Phoenix Yesterday Evening...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A dense, widespread haboob (fancy name for dust storm) took place in the Phoenix area yesterday evening. Numerous (and many spectacular) photos of the phenomenon circulated throughout social media:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLRNiVfN6HBBD-ec9tCPSGpEb_NOQUvxKa4XUa84HhuONy4cs0MY1SlLfv8H7_mHGBku4ZWMBXSyn87GabzLmIFf4iMNDmoYWy1uf9T9oAOwsfZp9ZKE-xtgWV7n-uEGgcyChNIeM2w3A/s1600/haboob_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLRNiVfN6HBBD-ec9tCPSGpEb_NOQUvxKa4XUa84HhuONy4cs0MY1SlLfv8H7_mHGBku4ZWMBXSyn87GabzLmIFf4iMNDmoYWy1uf9T9oAOwsfZp9ZKE-xtgWV7n-uEGgcyChNIeM2w3A/s400/haboob_1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Jerry Ferguson (via twitter)</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKxQYl9RRxIN46lC4PUI62au1TLmnCE_bzp4-CKbQ4lOtt3fpg8yU1Qe3FVHbigggmn70JPTurko2EyY-sopcfsndSiLHfameIiFSCORzsyJHklV9evoE-PPIRZ7sXV_JrC25UG-pgO4g/s1600/haboob_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKxQYl9RRxIN46lC4PUI62au1TLmnCE_bzp4-CKbQ4lOtt3fpg8yU1Qe3FVHbigggmn70JPTurko2EyY-sopcfsndSiLHfameIiFSCORzsyJHklV9evoE-PPIRZ7sXV_JrC25UG-pgO4g/s400/haboob_2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Rob Schumacher (via twitter)</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgVAzvLZpwYZHmMoJwHcWiro1EuaG2mBCxg9-emjHXG5Gj_-ukO-q-MQCdlta8Ntwx360uSxA_77CmUBEq065FRBi2BidtPa87gx4vrHE8lYT9TE-mFg_Nriq7MpFAwBXqt4MfG5ll7NA/s1600/haboob_3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgVAzvLZpwYZHmMoJwHcWiro1EuaG2mBCxg9-emjHXG5Gj_-ukO-q-MQCdlta8Ntwx360uSxA_77CmUBEq065FRBi2BidtPa87gx4vrHE8lYT9TE-mFg_Nriq7MpFAwBXqt4MfG5ll7NA/s400/haboob_3.jpg" width="300" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Brian Pivar (via twitter)</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGur2R_YQsSLUr6X-9bWI-PMiZxsahytRTvWx1Oa9zVDvSE8UYTbWKYcjqUfwPyyrDKfmTgwhFWf8IcDrnNVP-qsgS6EwNulSIuLkAbOw6GbB87U4g6nqpUSWquuAwtzfB91UlC_XOMok/s1600/haboob_4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGur2R_YQsSLUr6X-9bWI-PMiZxsahytRTvWx1Oa9zVDvSE8UYTbWKYcjqUfwPyyrDKfmTgwhFWf8IcDrnNVP-qsgS6EwNulSIuLkAbOw6GbB87U4g6nqpUSWquuAwtzfB91UlC_XOMok/s400/haboob_4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Jeff Piotrowski (via twitter)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If you look closely at the last 2 photos, you can also see a slight "curl" in the flow along the left side of the dust plume. That suggests downward air motion associated with a microburst or downburst at that particular location.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">On the 2nd photo (from the top) you can see an airplane that had just taken off from Sky Harbor Airport ahead of the oncoming deluge (it was reportedly the last flight to depart prior to the arrival of the dust storm).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The sudden reduction of visibility and strong winds resulted in a 1 hour or more "holding pattern" above the airport for a time yesterday evening:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrU-UZpOTMaB7URRJkUHjqFTi7Lz5g5hqVTHkqgadBuTKTZAE6uvtKy50Kv_JRJWOBG1j07kT8GpGihF39yXdxn2fCSvuQyNOpsN8lFtRFXIIeAtvaZUB4TObueujvP0baxLEjhROjbqM/s1600/haboob_atc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrU-UZpOTMaB7URRJkUHjqFTi7Lz5g5hqVTHkqgadBuTKTZAE6uvtKy50Kv_JRJWOBG1j07kT8GpGihF39yXdxn2fCSvuQyNOpsN8lFtRFXIIeAtvaZUB4TObueujvP0baxLEjhROjbqM/s400/haboob_atc.jpg" width="221" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">...during which time several flights decided to divert to Tucson or other nearby airports.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Strong wind gusts of 45-50 mph pushed the wall of dust from South to North through the region. The following chart from the Phoenix Airport shows a peak wind gust near 50 mph just before 7:00 PM local time yesterday: </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJGM9LElR45z8pnPkt58v_aGxY7BxtSCF36aQm878Z3N0_jWMWIo0nJbUZ2f3HXNz5UKu6LzwP1Pc0oLlEMQ8kuuvM9ym3rHEym_X2kZTnTjcglPw9saQ3VKeBdDFcV1yCRUKnOUBmpIA/s1600/PHX_WIND.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJGM9LElR45z8pnPkt58v_aGxY7BxtSCF36aQm878Z3N0_jWMWIo0nJbUZ2f3HXNz5UKu6LzwP1Pc0oLlEMQ8kuuvM9ym3rHEym_X2kZTnTjcglPw9saQ3VKeBdDFcV1yCRUKnOUBmpIA/s400/PHX_WIND.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Haboobs/dust storms are not necessarily uncommon in the area, especially with dry weather and strong, gusty winds there is plenty of "fuel" for the fire once things get going on a hot summer afternoon.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-21617255689891432762013-08-25T13:26:00.001-05:002013-08-25T13:26:22.456-05:00Tropics Looking to "Heat Up" - Right on Schedule...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">After a relatively quiet start to the season (in the Atlantic), the tropics are starting to show signs of "waking up" as we head toward the traditionally busy month of September...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become well organized during the past 24 hours, and is likely to become a Tropical Depression or perhaps even a weak Tropical Storm before making landfall in Mexico tonight into early Monday. I've circled the area in red on the latest visible satellite image:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCS8pJQffD0KE1IG2twOgqrhH4JMV4evrVYfCSMEuqMs2hXVF6e2ntiNsfIW0x8GbpaFSxrQrrEW15YekZuda_GobKLfRw8mP7c-hrKDx6UDUgwzKnFY-8yFWzuvaBuVCiFZ85JpjmPAE/s1600/gulf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCS8pJQffD0KE1IG2twOgqrhH4JMV4evrVYfCSMEuqMs2hXVF6e2ntiNsfIW0x8GbpaFSxrQrrEW15YekZuda_GobKLfRw8mP7c-hrKDx6UDUgwzKnFY-8yFWzuvaBuVCiFZ85JpjmPAE/s400/gulf.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Fortunately, with the system so close to land, there is little opportunity for significant strengthening, and this will mainly be a heavy rain and potential flooding/mudslide event for the impacted areas.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Meanwhile, a string of tropical waves are about to emerge from Africa into the Atlantic basin, the first two circled in red and yellow on the satellite image below: </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHtEUSClDJVKatTi55xax_MglSGifOSJdUdPS77ezbyvxhWQnLNnIoBEcD4_dnc1noDy4n7FXSNrPFDDOwhIuegF7Y0CMGQzRVwUgz678d1i5BPUKrkpGa8sBUFNhYSjLCQ4gNN4D8QCE/s1600/africa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHtEUSClDJVKatTi55xax_MglSGifOSJdUdPS77ezbyvxhWQnLNnIoBEcD4_dnc1noDy4n7FXSNrPFDDOwhIuegF7Y0CMGQzRVwUgz678d1i5BPUKrkpGa8sBUFNhYSjLCQ4gNN4D8QCE/s400/africa.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">There is still quite a bit of African dust that could inhibit vigorous development early in the week, as shown by this computer model dust plume forecast from NASA valid 7pm CDT Monday:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi695IS1WmWf1U-SiS9yOnrNkxy7GP2sE4lsccw68HZ7o3msHU4cWdj57q4qC8VdCFCjSoyJSK4PiJ8ly0hhyphenhyphenIb5YnT0KQqsVFSTc-PvwG1jvhhJpO8rvHA_U5P-n1do-Ya1FSn0TnRUq0/s1600/dust_mon_7pm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi695IS1WmWf1U-SiS9yOnrNkxy7GP2sE4lsccw68HZ7o3msHU4cWdj57q4qC8VdCFCjSoyJSK4PiJ8ly0hhyphenhyphenIb5YnT0KQqsVFSTc-PvwG1jvhhJpO8rvHA_U5P-n1do-Ya1FSn0TnRUq0/s400/dust_mon_7pm.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">...but the mass is forecast to thin out somewhat by 7pm CST on Wednesday:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV_wdiG4-bGSwzpqRLiHcvossSXPgH8eidhoYp6N8HDVtXsWSJcuzxJcF5js-fYnaZwOAyEHlikYazPRlW01K24vCgIfnv-5U8OFCbqMcsGZ6SwMjAAU9wpkLJjjcC6oyJt3vqCWyBkL8/s1600/dust_wed_7pm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV_wdiG4-bGSwzpqRLiHcvossSXPgH8eidhoYp6N8HDVtXsWSJcuzxJcF5js-fYnaZwOAyEHlikYazPRlW01K24vCgIfnv-5U8OFCbqMcsGZ6SwMjAAU9wpkLJjjcC6oyJt3vqCWyBkL8/s400/dust_wed_7pm.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">So, as the week progresses, it appears as though conditions will gradually become more favorable for one or more of these disturbances to hold together and become better organized as they move Westward.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Conditions are likely to become even more favorable for development in the Atlantic as we head into at least the early part of September, so please don't let your guard down just because we've had a "slow start" this season. There's still plenty of hurricane season yet to come, and as I always say, it only takes 1 system to hit the wrong place at the wrong time for us to have a very bad result.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-23260600245247745412013-08-09T08:53:00.001-05:002013-08-09T08:53:26.286-05:00Saharan Dust Keeping a Lid on the Tropical Atlantic So far...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Above is an animation from the NASA GEOS-5 model, showing the spread of dust from the Saharan Desert of Africa, Westward across the tropical Atlantic (model data via Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The plume of dust is associated with a hot, dry layer of air that continues to spread West into the tropics, eroding the deep moist layer that is needed for significant tropical development. It will be interesting to monitor this resource for signs of a breakdown in the "dust train", which could signal an uptick in tropical development shortly thereafter.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I'd also like to take this opportunity to remind everyone not to be lured into a false sense of security due to the seemingly "slow start" to the tropical weather season. As I always point out, whether we have 15 hurricanes or 1 hurricane in a given season, it only takes 1 hitting the wrong place at the wrong time to have a potentially disastrous result.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-29410633180859336152013-07-30T09:17:00.001-05:002013-08-09T09:56:16.396-05:00Too Close for Comfort: Tornado Video from Milan, Italy Yesterday<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<iframe border="0" frameborder="no" name="embed" scrolling="no" src="http://www.youreporter.it/player/ext/video.phtml?vkey=6e0d071b821824fede9b6d9893c5ca9a" style="height: 360px; width: 480px;"></iframe></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">From the "Don't Try This At Home" Department, incredible video of a tornado passing overhead or very nearby the videographer in the Trezzo region of Milan, Italy yesterday.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Due to the relative rarity of such an event in this region, it is quite possible that the videographer didn't realize the danger involved in what he was doing. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">All disclaimers aside, the video is very impressive and an excellent educational tool.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The whistling sound that you hear beginning about midway through the video is the sound of the wind racing through the "air tight" windows of the commercial building. About the same time the whistling begins, you'll see a transformer explode outside the window.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I could not embed the video in any other way other than landscape mode, so be sure to click the "full screen" button in the lower right hand corner to view the entire image.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Below is another video of the same tornado from far enough away such that you can actually see the condensation funnel:</span><br />
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<iframe border="0" frameborder="no" name="embed" scrolling="no" src="http://www.youreporter.it/player/ext/video.phtml?vkey=3a6fb6c34aca84c2b21618051bdf7f7f" style="height: 357px; width: 480px;"></iframe>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">According to media reports, 12 people were injured.</span></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-64669817992765751102013-07-25T13:32:00.000-05:002013-07-25T13:34:35.441-05:00Heavy Rain Tonight & Friday to Delay Storm Recovery in the Tulsa Area...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE26pgz0lYlOvzdgTun8oB9mA2b1pE8tV4sfJPaDtWzYmJ3U_F2MWYw6WaYQk2ZGEolhIvMB9lxToeQITQ5kjtW6-HMno06ok7CCu4S7jaKqLDmCSluGNig_DV4DM-ErqOKOQFVm6aXPg/s1600/tsa_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE26pgz0lYlOvzdgTun8oB9mA2b1pE8tV4sfJPaDtWzYmJ3U_F2MWYw6WaYQk2ZGEolhIvMB9lxToeQITQ5kjtW6-HMno06ok7CCu4S7jaKqLDmCSluGNig_DV4DM-ErqOKOQFVm6aXPg/s400/tsa_2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As mentioned at the time on facebook and twitter, severe thunderstorms produced widespread wind damage across the Tulsa area on Tuesday Night / early Wednesday morning. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOvMynsExin3wSzv57PxBjW-64QE3TpjbNPtefmpzk24igUOeeiIPYQG1NwdykCxFROclhIl_AGub9THtFgTL48obaWk6juQ0w-hRj59t6hgnFPHNtLTKslKhH7FehtYt39v4QPnz_H_c/s1600/tsa_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOvMynsExin3wSzv57PxBjW-64QE3TpjbNPtefmpzk24igUOeeiIPYQG1NwdykCxFROclhIl_AGub9THtFgTL48obaWk6juQ0w-hRj59t6hgnFPHNtLTKslKhH7FehtYt39v4QPnz_H_c/s400/tsa_1.jpg" width="296" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">At one point early yesterday nearly 100,000 customers were without power in the Tulsa metro area. That number has been shaved back to about 45,000 as of this morning, according to AEP/PSO:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU-3C8g1GWZCIL3aoI-1SDPy2-my9Qk2bBz0yXNloRa3mysGDvlv61mIbgC6N1ffBSypySUgyTnE3ulBbe5X6xuSORRF5RybpulBg54KiQj4vsTtoTdnG58A8VXAjVCIQ2OmnR4BC7MWA/s1600/tsa_outage.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU-3C8g1GWZCIL3aoI-1SDPy2-my9Qk2bBz0yXNloRa3mysGDvlv61mIbgC6N1ffBSypySUgyTnE3ulBbe5X6xuSORRF5RybpulBg54KiQj4vsTtoTdnG58A8VXAjVCIQ2OmnR4BC7MWA/s400/tsa_outage.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The company is currently projecting that 95% of customers will have power back by 5pm on Saturday, however I'm concerned that weather conditions tonight and Friday are not being factored into the equation.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Unfortunately, at this time it appears that several rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity will take place across the area, with several high resolution computer forecast models suggesting 2-4 inches of rain likely for the period tonight through 7pm CDT on Friday:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhEc02_cvGHR0nsloyuqZ8I3vO20jDX45_w2yJJ1em_jnfX-YDHgb0bqo70Zdlp7Qa4Ph-bS9dk1VlensPcEV4TxIoGnP_BB3muAZ_6D7x2RMAA2UTYz4OxTWTO68XOkqT8-OfDYuYg-Q/s1600/qpf_tul.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhEc02_cvGHR0nsloyuqZ8I3vO20jDX45_w2yJJ1em_jnfX-YDHgb0bqo70Zdlp7Qa4Ph-bS9dk1VlensPcEV4TxIoGnP_BB3muAZ_6D7x2RMAA2UTYz4OxTWTO68XOkqT8-OfDYuYg-Q/s400/qpf_tul.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Hopefully crews will get far enough ahead of the game today so that the impact will be minimized, but there seems little doubt that recovery efforts as whole will be slowed way down across the area on Friday.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-52942885374891345802013-07-25T13:11:00.000-05:002013-07-25T13:11:13.518-05:00"Catastrophic" Hail Damage in Burgundy Region of France<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGXkuW44F_4gTcgGWhxjgQ-UHgPbUyIQFsAMUcDgtmabD-3LUOo-VR7TXrkIroLgouO8YKvkLNseUg2nNxyLr8RWLrjJj_XaGt9eCLERKOl7UZCIgPW3FWmcZbRVg2UoWwmXRrzvgh_LU/s1600/wine.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGXkuW44F_4gTcgGWhxjgQ-UHgPbUyIQFsAMUcDgtmabD-3LUOo-VR7TXrkIroLgouO8YKvkLNseUg2nNxyLr8RWLrjJj_XaGt9eCLERKOl7UZCIgPW3FWmcZbRVg2UoWwmXRrzvgh_LU/s400/wine.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">One or more rounds of severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and large hail pounded the Burgundy region of France on Tuesday afternoon (local time). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Several vineyards are calling the damage "catastrophic", with some areas reporting 90% or more of their crops destroyed. The photo above shows extensive damage (right half of the picture) to a vineyard in Beaune (photo courtesy Iain Doire).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Thunderstorms with hail of ping pong ball size or larger have plagued the region in recent years. About this same time last year, nearly 60% of crops were impacted by another hail storm that struck the region.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhctaKJsqxPYDjEff7uriK37FeM75VXmtsxN3xcmzFdZy8-R18Cqs9C525A0YRO-2LNmip8O_2Bue81cyAvhYb_y7YPtLxqtPmG4N96r0RifIF4qjbnGUnlocoRk1jTCzJBx_riC-KwNWE/s1600/fr_cell.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhctaKJsqxPYDjEff7uriK37FeM75VXmtsxN3xcmzFdZy8-R18Cqs9C525A0YRO-2LNmip8O_2Bue81cyAvhYb_y7YPtLxqtPmG4N96r0RifIF4qjbnGUnlocoRk1jTCzJBx_riC-KwNWE/s400/fr_cell.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Lower than average yields in recent years have resulted in increased pressure on prices, which are likely to continue to rise as a result of the latest incident.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">For more information, see <a href="http://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2013/07/hail-wreaks-catastrophic-damage-in-burgundy/"><span style="color: blue;">this article</span></a> at thedrinksbusiness.com. </span><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-39922202183193262872013-07-23T12:36:00.000-05:002013-07-23T12:36:00.771-05:00Iowa: Ground Zero for Mammatus Yesterday Evening...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A round of severe thunderstorms produced widespread hail across a large chunk of central and northern Iowa yesterday afternoon and evening.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While some of the hail was destructive, the thunderstorm activity also produced beautiful mammatus clouds across the region, as shared by <a href="https://twitter.com/KWWLSchnack"><span style="color: blue;">KWWL Chief Meteorologist Mark Schnackenberg</span></a> (viewer photos):</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirdnBI72y6JmJ9EHklagpe7KbLPlGnN5Uj1sDExqp_K7xl5W71WLX_SGkhm44fkvSkx3oNFo-NkSP16QHD3CNu3ykbPMEayh8pNIHpwRiHZeAOkjMoJF6QxQh8pQ8EqU-HqxWXzM3Gisc/s1600/mamma_amber_bevers.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirdnBI72y6JmJ9EHklagpe7KbLPlGnN5Uj1sDExqp_K7xl5W71WLX_SGkhm44fkvSkx3oNFo-NkSP16QHD3CNu3ykbPMEayh8pNIHpwRiHZeAOkjMoJF6QxQh8pQ8EqU-HqxWXzM3Gisc/s400/mamma_amber_bevers.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw1vbisc4BEFmV86taAm4gQ6kVuIGzbbMoJswJ5kFcOu44pUMcazrlF2l01zWqvSuaXV0wL77QZyPN0eToHae-rOH3KxJ2y7WCJ7BESyNvv2n-uFDXLeVSFLmJXLsDe-kmL3A9aZzfISc/s1600/mamma_jordyn_shaw.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw1vbisc4BEFmV86taAm4gQ6kVuIGzbbMoJswJ5kFcOu44pUMcazrlF2l01zWqvSuaXV0wL77QZyPN0eToHae-rOH3KxJ2y7WCJ7BESyNvv2n-uFDXLeVSFLmJXLsDe-kmL3A9aZzfISc/s400/mamma_jordyn_shaw.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA7q0apAfOYvFyo4lrSE0qZ8YtJyNtLufmZ3VmwgVXRX8scLWVyJT6LeA7n36iUiUe1TEiYvc74Ln7DA6vuoJ4aXUaKp2kiCYfgIkRwChflf0dYotCiN25v4LgXFO0kiSDSxrLtFkIwuc/s1600/mamma_jordyn_shaw_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA7q0apAfOYvFyo4lrSE0qZ8YtJyNtLufmZ3VmwgVXRX8scLWVyJT6LeA7n36iUiUe1TEiYvc74Ln7DA6vuoJ4aXUaKp2kiCYfgIkRwChflf0dYotCiN25v4LgXFO0kiSDSxrLtFkIwuc/s400/mamma_jordyn_shaw_2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Mammatus clouds are often associated with severe thunderstorms, particularly those which are prolific hail producers. Their grouping, lobe like character are associated with turbulence bubbling up and down in the anvil or "belly" of a severe thunderstorm.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-2032571807219513882013-07-16T12:05:00.002-05:002013-07-16T12:07:53.559-05:00Recent Study Suggests Storm Chasers Positively Contribute to Tornado Awareness...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Following the deadly events in Moore and El Reno, OK in May, there was <a href="http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/thoughts-on-death-of-tim-samaras.html"><span style="color: blue;">much discussion</span></a> of "banning" or otherwise placing significant restrictions on storm chasers.</span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It's easy to jump to conclusions and make hasty declarations following such a devastating and traumatic event. I think in the ensuing days, calmer heads have prevailed, and there is even some recent statistical evidence that suggests storm chasers have positively contributed to tornado awareness, which we know has a direct impact on tornado safety.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Research p</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">erformed by </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;">Laura E. Michaels, Kelsey N. Scheitlin, and Ian J. Elsner (to be published in the </span><i>Weather, Climate and Society Journal</i> later this year) shows that it is just as common for a tornado to be reported well away from population centers today as it is near the city itself. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 20px;">In the past, reports of tornadoes were far more common near population centers than in rural areas, as illustrated by the chart below (I've inserted metric to English conversions at the bottom):</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiayMfHA91JAbHRiFS0AwkaqvPo0mrlfv-7qyPodKAIiM0n7tekOnhNwtIWLWP4hdaUKF5OkCMgfKLgJPAknzzOlwCmlnyfalbplksDb1hLAJA8_KvaFM80OIPepJbQG8S5Z_XlbE-cnOE/s1600/tornado_frequency.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiayMfHA91JAbHRiFS0AwkaqvPo0mrlfv-7qyPodKAIiM0n7tekOnhNwtIWLWP4hdaUKF5OkCMgfKLgJPAknzzOlwCmlnyfalbplksDb1hLAJA8_KvaFM80OIPepJbQG8S5Z_XlbE-cnOE/s400/tornado_frequency.png" width="353" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">As you can see, during the most recent period of 2002-2011, you're almost as likely to hear of a tornado report "in the country" as you are "in the city". James Elsner, one of the researchers involved in the study, states <a href="http://hurricaneclimate.blogspot.com/2013/03/decreasing-population-bias-in-tornado.html?m=1"><span style="color: blue;">on his blog</span></a> "we show evidence that this (result) could be related in part to an increase in the number of storm chasers..."</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii1S6R6BxRFbfmChlswhKsahsQqwGiXKttogi-JjtNXOR6ygHS475JS7jpr7Sur7HPYTs3O6mlBvQsDZ5w9LUKEXF9V3sTiuQB2IsJkV1x30RnwE7y0PYjsVEhM7wqr99Ew96dwyT_nrM/s1600/tornado_frequency_quote.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="56" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii1S6R6BxRFbfmChlswhKsahsQqwGiXKttogi-JjtNXOR6ygHS475JS7jpr7Sur7HPYTs3O6mlBvQsDZ5w9LUKEXF9V3sTiuQB2IsJkV1x30RnwE7y0PYjsVEhM7wqr99Ew96dwyT_nrM/s400/tornado_frequency_quote.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Meteorologists have long known of the contribution that <u>responsible</u> storm chasers make to severe weather awareness and safety, but as far as I know there hasn't been a formal study made that puts some "numbers" behind the suggestion. Perhaps this will be the one. I look forward to reading the full publication and will post a review here on the blog when it becomes available.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-684151770662764217.post-22724178718965694592013-07-04T09:23:00.000-05:002013-07-04T10:21:00.856-05:00Happy 4th of July!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBxyh6V7ndLUWBHIsKcrEHVhc-jCvZM0qw0TRaMG2226_mA17AuGAiQrws8jAF7j-osQmUuc1iN6IVUxKokj4anfb0n_enQpf5X8cfS-mOhk8q0E5tecq0PHD1ZkIQfc_Hhqg74le1HM4/s479/fireworks.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBxyh6V7ndLUWBHIsKcrEHVhc-jCvZM0qw0TRaMG2226_mA17AuGAiQrws8jAF7j-osQmUuc1iN6IVUxKokj4anfb0n_enQpf5X8cfS-mOhk8q0E5tecq0PHD1ZkIQfc_Hhqg74le1HM4/s400/fireworks.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Have fun and stay safe!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Overall, there are no major severe weather threats across the nation today, but a few storms may produce gusty winds and small hail in a belt from the central Gulf Coast through New England this afternoon and evening, as well as over New Mexico and Montana.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The primary concern today will be that of locally heavy rainfall in the Deep South, Southeast and Tennessee valley region, some of which could produce flash flooding, especially within the purple and blue shaded areas on the rainfall forecast map below:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuN3X5A_amUFRgvz-y6yGNE95VirqBzSAPty-f36J_eqep5sff4aGLNiCXTYuNxcKeqFqLGfuyNCPKrQa38r-QpoQb3qGvfKWOQBt1UVOrrVZxeLI-WYtgMvzgsTW2iNN3ZK6bBwwXzCk/s750/qpf_today.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuN3X5A_amUFRgvz-y6yGNE95VirqBzSAPty-f36J_eqep5sff4aGLNiCXTYuNxcKeqFqLGfuyNCPKrQa38r-QpoQb3qGvfKWOQBt1UVOrrVZxeLI-WYtgMvzgsTW2iNN3ZK6bBwwXzCk/s400/qpf_today.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If you're worried that bad weather may impact your outdoor activities today, be sure to bring along a </span><a href="http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/make-sure-that-you-have-way-to-receive.html" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">weather radio or smartphone app</span></a><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> that will alert you to any severe weather threats.</span></div>
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