Severe Weather Threat This Easter Sunday...

Good morning and Happy Easter!

Please keep an eye to the sky today if you live in the areas shaded in brown and yellow on the above image, which is today's severe weather outlook via WeatherGuidance.

Isolated severe storms can be expected in the brown shaded areas, with scattered activity within the yellow shaded areas.

Large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the primary threats across the outlook areas for today.  Although storms will be more isolated over southcentral Texas, the atmosphere will be particularly unstable in this region, with hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter likely with any storms that are able to form within the black hatched area.

The most concentrated threat today will take place during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening hours, although some storms are ongoing right now along the Red River and moving toward the DFW Metroplex region with a hail and gusty wind threat this morning in that area.

If you're going to be out and about celebrating Easter today, please be sure to have a way to receive severe weather warnings for the location(s) that you'll be in, and keep an eye to the sky for any threatening conditions.  

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Coming April 1, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

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Isolated to Scattered Severe Storms Central/Southern Plains Today and Saturday...

This is nothing to get too worked up about, but isolated to scattered severe storms are likely this afternoon and evening and again on Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern Plains.

For today, the primary threat is located over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region, into portions of western Oklahoma, as shown in green on the image above.

For Saturday, the Western edge of the primary threat area largely remains in place, while the Eastern edge shifts across most of the rest of the Sooner State, as well as portions of extreme northern Texas (as shown in green on the image below).

Large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds will be the primary severe weather threats both days, however an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly with any isolated, well organized storm(s).

Definitely go ahead with your Easter weekend activities as normal, but keep an eye to the sky each day in these areas, particularly from late afternoon into the evening hours.  Make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings including during the late evening and overnight hours.

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Coming April 1, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

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A Wet and Stormy April Is Ahead...

Both the U.S. based GFS computer forecast model and the European computer forecast model continue to strongly suggest that a wet, stormy April is instore for much of the central and eastern two-thirds of the U.S., including many areas that are currently in a severe to extreme drought situation.

The image below shows the GFS and European model total rainfall forecast, respectively, for the period today through April 4th (scale in inches at the right hand side of the image):

As you can see, both of the models are forecasting a wet first week of April from the Southern Plains and Deep South into the lower and middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions.

The European model forecast out through 360 hours (or April 11th), shows the likelihood of significant precipitation expanding both Westward into the drought stricken southern and central Plains, and Northeastward into the southeast U.S. and along much of the Eastern seaboard:

High resolution precipitation forecasts are not available from the GFS model beyond 192 hours, and I show the European output because it is typically more accurate for the longer range time periods.

The above trends correspond well to the forecast output over the last 30 days by the Climate Forecast System (CFS) models.  The image below shows that model's precipitation forecast for the month of April:

As you can see, that particular model is forecasting a bullseye of 5-10 inch rainfall over a large part of Texas and Oklahoma, which would certainly be welcome considering the present drought conditions:

I wouldn't typically put a whole lot of stock into the CFS model prediction by itself, but that forecast coupled with the signals from both the GFS and European models leads me to believe that the general trend of a wet, stormy April appears likely for these areas.

Of course, with beneficial rainfall often comes a threat of severe thunderstorm and tornado activity in the spring, so take some time now to make sure that you're prepared before the unsettled weather arrives!

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Coming April 1, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

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Heavy Snow Across St. Louis / Surrounding Areas...

It's snowing to beat the band on this late March day across portions of the Midwest.  Snow continues to fall heavily in the St. Louis Metro area this hour:

The numbers inside of the blue and purple squares indicate how much snow is on the ground at a given location as of the last 1-2 hours.  Note the 6-8 inch amounts across the Kansas City area, and 2-4 inches so far in St. Louis, but it's still snowing heavily there at this time.  Wichita ended up with 3-6 inches in most cases.

There is also cloud to ground lightning taking place across western and northern portions of the St. Louis metro area along with the snow at this time, as indicated by the plus signs within the yellow circled areas on the image below:

This is indicative of heavy snowfall with rates of 1-2 inches per hour likely.

Snowfall will spread East into the Ohio Valley through tonight and Monday, where Winter Storm Warnings (shown in pink on the map below ) are in effect:

Six inches or more of snowfall is likely across a broad swath from Missouri into the mountains of West Virginia and Virginia through tonight:

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Coming April 1, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

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Scattered Severe Storms Across the South Today and Tonight...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will blanket much of the South today and tonight, as shown in green on the image above.

At this time, it's difficult to pinpoint one or more areas that are particularly vulnerable, but if I had to try and pin things down futher, I would suggest that residents of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama (and particularly the southern one-half of those states), southwest Georgia and the Florida panhandle pay particular attention to the weather this afternoon into tonight.  A few tornadoes are possible with severe storms, particularly in this area, as well as large hail and strong, possibly damaging winds.

Thunderstorms, some of which are severe, are ongoing right now over northeast Texas as well as northern Florida and southern Georgia.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect for the second area, as shown below, which is valid until 5pm EDT:

Folks in the Florida panhandle and southwest Georgia, please don't feel that the threat has ended for your area since storms earlier this morning have moved off to the East.  Additional development is likely across your area later this afternoon and especially this evening and tonight.

A significant portion of the severe weather threat across the South will take place and/or continue into the nighttime hours tonight.  Please make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings and information at night if you live in these areas.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Damaging Tornado Strikes Yarrawonga, Mulwala Australia Areas...

A large, damaging tornado struck the communities of Yarrawonga and Mulwala in New South Wales, Australia this morning (U.S. time).  This is about 135-140 miles North/Northeast of Melbourne.

The above photo is a screen grab taken from this video posted to facebook.

Another video of the tornado was recently posted to YouTube (note the power flashes, especially toward the end of the short clip):

Stephen Hicks of Yarrawonga took this photo of the tornado as posted to facebook:

Authorities say at least 90 people have been injured, though fortunately most appeared to be "walking wounded".  

Damage reports so far include the roof of a post office being removed, as well as widespread tree, powerline and vehicle damage.  Large hail also reportedly accompanied the storms that hit the region during the late afternoon and early evening hours (Australian time).

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

First Major Hail Storm of 2013 Strikes the South, Including Jackson, MS...

As feared (but also as expected), the first widespread, damaging hail storm of 2013 struck the South yesterday.  In particular, the Jackson, MS area was hit very hard with widespread hail of 2 inches or more in diameter.  The above image shows the general areas affected by hail damage yesterday.  Red indicates severe, widespread damage.  Orange indicates significant damage, and yellow indicates spotty hail damage.

Here are a few hail and/or hail damage photos that have come forward on social media in the last 12-18 hours:

Pearl, MS (unknown photographer - via twitter)

Softball size hail near Clinton, MS (unknown photographer-via twitter)

Jackson, MS (WLBT via Facebook)

Significant wind damage also took place from Alabama, Eastward into Georgia as well as possibly a few tornadoes:

Jacksonville, AL via the AP

Center Point, AL via the AP

Silver Creek, GA via the AP

Scenes like the above are widespread across the region, and there is much damage to clean up in the coming days for sure.

I am watching with interest for storm damage surveys to be complete near the Gay and Concord, Georgia areas.  A very strong tornadic signature was indicated on radar in that area late yesterday afternoon, as shown by these images that I shared on twitter at the time:

On the lower image, I have circled what appears to be a "debris ball" which is a radar indication of debris being lifted up and carried aloft by the tornadic circulation.  Debris can be anything from trees, dirt and power poles, to parts of buildings.  Fortunately, this appears to have taken place in a relatively rural area and I am not hearing of deaths or injuries in this immediate area as of now.

From the "shameless plug" department, this severe weather event was forecast very accurately (and well in advance) by our team at WeatherGuidance.  Many of our clients were able to move their employees and assets to shelter prior to storms hitting (which avoided or reduced damage and injury), while others took action to move equipment and other resources into the impact areas ahead of time so that they could quickly help those who were affected after the storms passed.

If you feel like your company, school or organization was taken by surprise as a result of this event, please contact us today so that we can help you next time!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Severe Weather Threat Across the South Today...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will become numerous by this afternoon across the Southern U.S., especially over the lower Mississippi Valley into the Deep South and portions of the Tennessee Valley region.

Thunderstorms are already underway this morning from central Arkansas into the Tennessee Valley, including some storms capable of producing wind damage that are currently moving across the Nashville Metro area:

This activity will become more numerous as the day progresses and the line pushes East/Southeast into the more moist, unstable airmass to the South.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats today, although an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, particularly across portions of eastern Alabama and western Georgia this afternoon and early this evening.

Some of the hail may be particularly large, i.e., 2 inches in diameter or greater, from southern Mississippi into southern Alabama and extreme west-central Georgia.

If you live across the severe weather threat areas for today, please remain alert and listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information and possible warnings.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!