A cold front is moving Southward into northwest Texas at midday (solid blue line on surface weather map above), while several weak outflow boundaries and sea breeze fronts (red dashed lines) are drifting West and Northwestward....
The clashing boundaries will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across much of southcentral and southeast Texas later this afternoon and into this evening...
Not everyone will receive rain, but it appears as though a good many locations will have a shot at it. The image below is from the latest run of the HRRR, an experimental, short range computer model, which shows widespread rains of 1-2 inches with localized amounts of 3-4 inches across portions of southcentral and southeast Texas by 7pm CDT this evening:
While this is certainly good news for some this afternoon and evening, it will be tempered somewhat by the fact that strong, gusty North winds behind the front will result in extreme fire danger across much of the central and eastern part of the state on Friday (just like what is happening across Western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle today, with the strong, gusty North winds behind the front).
By the way, I alluded to the possibility for rain across this part of Texas during the last week of September in this post on September 13th. Good job to the GFS model, which consistently forecast this event to take place...
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