Tornado Threat Ramping Up as Favorable Wind Profile Increases...

I pointed out in the mid-morning update that we expected the lower through middle level wind profile to become increasingly favorable for strong tornado development within the current Tornado Watch areas as the afternoon hours progress.

Unfortunately, this is indeed taking place just as expected, with storms becoming better organized and now showing signs of strong rotation, particularly over northcentral Kansas:

Meanwhile, back to the Southwest, conditions are also becoming very favorable for storms to rotate, as you can see on the latest regional radar image, overlayed with the "Significant Tornado Parameter (STP)" index:

STP values of  2 or more are considered very favorable for rotating storms and tornadoes.  As you can see, we have a bullseye of 6 over west-central Oklahoma, with high values extending both North and South of there across the Western third of the state.  Once thunderstorms are able to initiate in this region (during the next 1-3 hours), they will have high tornado potential.

The STP values of 2 or more extend up North across western Kansas as well, so storms in this area are increasingly likely to rotate and produce tornadoes during the coming hours.

If you live within the current Tornado Watch areas, or South of there across western Oklahoma where new development is likely to take place this afternoon, keep a very close eye on the weather.  Be prepared to seek shelter immediately if threatening weather is observed or a warning issued.

Now that storms are developing and intensifying rather rapidly, it would be best to follow me on facebook and twitter for more frequent updates.  It's much faster to post an update there than to make a formal blog post.  Look for general summary posts here from time to time, as well as any documentation of actual tornado events as they develop, but for more real-time posts of active storms, follow my facebook and twitter feeds at the links below.

If you enjoy reading the blog, please click on the icons below to "Like" my facebook page and/or follow me on twitter. You'll find posts at these locations that aren't always on the blog, especially during rapidly changing weather situations...