Northwest Flow Brings Chance of Rain - Finally

Northwesterly flow in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere will provide a chance of shower and thunderstorm activity across central Texas today. The combination of warm, moist air already in place the surface, cooler winds flowing out of a decaying complex of thunderstorms to the west, and a developing area of thunderstorms moving Southward from North Texas will give Central Texas residents the best chance of rain we've seen in awhile. But "best" is a relative term - relative to whether or not you are underneath a thunderstorm and getting rain, of course! While not all locations will receive rain, those that do could receive locally heavy downpours from isolated thunderstorms. The best scenario for widespread rain would be one in which a larger complex of showers & thunderstorms developes in North Texas and moves South into the area this afternoon or evening - which is exactly what happened last night in West Texas. We'll keep watching the developing cluster of storms (now Southwest of Ft. Worth) for signs of organization.

Much Needed Rain Continues in West Texas

Thanks to the remnants of Tropical Depression 1 in the Pacific, as well as a plume of other tropical-related moisture, widespread rains continue to fall over a large part of West Texas. Isolated rainfall amounts of 4 inches or more have fallen in an area along and 50-75 miles North of the Big Bend region. Rain will continue through a good deal of Saturday, then gradually diminish during the evening hours. Unfortunately, a dominant area of high pressure in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will prevent any movement of the rain into central or eastern Texas.

El Nino Looks to be Forming in the Pacific

El Nino, also known as the 'Southern Oscillation' is a weather pattern associated with abnormally high ocean temperatures in the Pacific ocean, near and North of the equator. On the graphic above, we've highlighted a region in the Pacific ocean where ocean temperatures are running 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of the year. The occurrence of this pattern, and the fact that it is spreading westward all along the region North of the equator, is typical of the early stages of El Nino development. What impact does El Nino have on the weather, particularly in the United States? Initially, the impact for the summer would be lower than normal amounts of tropical weather activity in the Carribean, Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. This doesn't mean that there won't be any tropical development, just that there is likely to be less development than normal. This of course, is a relative statement, because if a tropical storm or hurricane impacts your area, you certainly won't feel like the season has been less active than normal. If an El Nino pattern is indeed forming, and continues to mature through the summer months, the next impact would be to the southern and central United States during the Fall and Winter. In a mature El Nino pattern, cooler and wetter than normal weather conditions can be expected along the southern tier of the U.S. from October through March.

Tropical-Like Showers & T-Storms Likely Again Today

A moist, tropical airmass is in place across much of central and east Texas again this morning. This instability, combined with energy from a middle and upper-level low pressure system over the Arklatex region will result in pretty solid coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The most likely time for development is after 11am and will continue through late afternoon/early evening. The most likely area for more widespread coverage is in an area from Austin northward through the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex, and on East toward the Arkansas/Louisiana borders. This activity is expected to diminish rapidly after 6pm.

Very heavy rainfall along the I-35 corridor.

Very heavy rainfall has developed along the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Austin. Locally heavy rains of 1 to 2 inches per hour can be expected through at least 2pm across this area. Flooding of small creeks, streams and other low lying areas can be expected, as well as widespread street flooding.

Much Needed Rains on Tap for Central & South Texas

A slow moving cool front will combine with copious amounts of low level moisture, as well as several upper-level disturbances, to produce widespread rainfall today across central and south Texas. Some of the storms will produce locally heavy rainfall that may accumulate several inches in one location. Activity will continue to develop & increase through midday and become widespread this afternoon & evening.

Severe Storms Heading Toward Tulsa

Severe storms are moving toward the Tulsa metropolitan area. Wind gusts of 70-80 mph and hail up to the size of golfballs have been reported with this activity. Arrival to Tulsa will begin around 9:45, and continue through 10:30. Very heavy rainfall can also be expected...

Severe Weather Continues Across Oklahoma

Big, severe storms continue West and north of the Oklahoma City Metro Area. This storm Northeast of Guthrie is currently showing signs of rotation, as well as producing hail up to the size of baseballs....

Big, Severe Storms Pound Oklahoma

Severe storms continue to pound central through northeast Oklahoma this evening. A large, high precipitation (lots of rain and hail), supercell thunderstorm is currently tracking East/Southeast at 25 to 30 mph to the West of Oklahoma City. This storm is producing hail up to the size of baseballs and we continue to monitor the Southwest portion of the storm for tornado development. Radar and spotters on the ground continue to indicate occasional rotation and a lowering "wall cloud" with this very dangerous storm.

Severe Storms Develop Along Cold Front

UPDATE 6:35 PM: Severe storms have developed along the front. Individual storms are moving East at 30 mph, while the front/line is moving Southeast at 15 to 20 mph. Large hail of 1 to 1.5 inches has been the most common report so far, but we are watching the southwestern most storm as it is slowly developing signs of rotation. Severe thundestorm watches are in effect along and ahead of the front until 11pm this evening...

Severe Weather Season Ramping Up

The 2009 severe weather season is well underway, with yet another risk of significant severe storms and flooding in the central Plains and Midwest again today. As of the time of this writing, we are expecting severe storms to develop along a slow moving cold front from east-central and southeast Kansas into Oklahoma, and quickly become severe this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary severe weather threats, however isolated tornadoes are also possible, particularly across western and central Oklahoma. We'll post an update later this evening and a full recap of the evenings events tomorrow...