Large Storm System Continues to Aim for Thursday-Weekend

It still looks like things are shaping up for several days of severe weather toward the end of this week, beginning on the High Plains Thursday.  Here are the latest GFS model screenshots at 500mb for Thursday and Friday of this week:

If the model trends of the past 24-hours continue, much of the Central Plains and Midwest could be in for several days  and several rounds of severe weather.

Dust-off the chase gear and stay tuned!

Medium Range Outlook

Will a strong upper-level disturbance bring an end to the "severe weather drought" on the High Plains toward the end of this week?  The following snapshot form the GFS looks promising for the end of this week:

Beyond this week, the GFS is suggesting a potentially more active pattern may develop into the early part of the last week of April:

Stay tuned (and keep your fingers crossed)!!!

What will spring bring?

So far it's been a wet start to spring here in Central and East Texas - as well as much of the Southern U.S.  It's also been one of the slowest starts of the "traditional" severe weather season in recent memory.  No surprise really, considering the continuing El Nino pattern in the Pacific...and much to the disappointment of the global warming alarmists, I'm sure...
Slowest "Tornado Start" since 1950!

This blog has moved

This blog is now located at http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/.
You will be automatically redirected in 30 seconds, or you may click here.

For feed subscribers, please update your feed subscriptions to
http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default.

Northwest Flow Brings Chance of Rain - Finally

Northwesterly flow in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere will provide a chance of shower and thunderstorm activity across central Texas today. The combination of warm, moist air already in place the surface, cooler winds flowing out of a decaying complex of thunderstorms to the west, and a developing area of thunderstorms moving Southward from North Texas will give Central Texas residents the best chance of rain we've seen in awhile. But "best" is a relative term - relative to whether or not you are underneath a thunderstorm and getting rain, of course! While not all locations will receive rain, those that do could receive locally heavy downpours from isolated thunderstorms. The best scenario for widespread rain would be one in which a larger complex of showers & thunderstorms developes in North Texas and moves South into the area this afternoon or evening - which is exactly what happened last night in West Texas. We'll keep watching the developing cluster of storms (now Southwest of Ft. Worth) for signs of organization.

Much Needed Rain Continues in West Texas

Thanks to the remnants of Tropical Depression 1 in the Pacific, as well as a plume of other tropical-related moisture, widespread rains continue to fall over a large part of West Texas. Isolated rainfall amounts of 4 inches or more have fallen in an area along and 50-75 miles North of the Big Bend region. Rain will continue through a good deal of Saturday, then gradually diminish during the evening hours. Unfortunately, a dominant area of high pressure in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will prevent any movement of the rain into central or eastern Texas.

El Nino Looks to be Forming in the Pacific

El Nino, also known as the 'Southern Oscillation' is a weather pattern associated with abnormally high ocean temperatures in the Pacific ocean, near and North of the equator. On the graphic above, we've highlighted a region in the Pacific ocean where ocean temperatures are running 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of the year. The occurrence of this pattern, and the fact that it is spreading westward all along the region North of the equator, is typical of the early stages of El Nino development. What impact does El Nino have on the weather, particularly in the United States? Initially, the impact for the summer would be lower than normal amounts of tropical weather activity in the Carribean, Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. This doesn't mean that there won't be any tropical development, just that there is likely to be less development than normal. This of course, is a relative statement, because if a tropical storm or hurricane impacts your area, you certainly won't feel like the season has been less active than normal. If an El Nino pattern is indeed forming, and continues to mature through the summer months, the next impact would be to the southern and central United States during the Fall and Winter. In a mature El Nino pattern, cooler and wetter than normal weather conditions can be expected along the southern tier of the U.S. from October through March.