Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Tropical Trouble for Texas / Mexico Next Week?

This is not a forecast, just something that will be interesting to watch from a computer model forecast performance perspective...

The last few runs of both the European and the U.S. based GFS computer models are forecasting a tropical system to develop in the Southwest part of the Gulf of Mexico late next week, with a possible impact somewhere along the Mexico and/or Texas coasts on Thursday or Friday, June 20-21:

European Forecast Model Valid 7pm CDT Thursday, 6/20/13

There's no doubt that tropical weather is very difficult to forecast beyond 120 hours, much less 240 hours in the future as in this case.  With that said, you may  also recall that last season the European Model in particular had a very strong track record in indicating potential tropical development, even at longer range time periods.  

This will be interesting to watch...and will be the first test of "long range" model accuracy in the tropics this season.

It also serves as a reminder to those along the western and central Gulf Coast that it would be a good time to review/prepare your Tropical Weather Emergency Kit and Safety/Preparedness Tips just in case a system does threaten your area later this season.

Stay tuned for updates on this over the coming days...

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