Spring-Like Severe Weather Threat Later Today...

A spring-like severe weather situation is expected to take shape later this afternoon and this evening across the Plains, including a threat for tornadoes.

Large hail and damaging winds can be expected with severe storms that fire from western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle region later today, and a few tornadoes are possible, especially within the green and brown shaded areas on the image above.

This is a situation where the highest tornado potential may not develop for 2-3 hours after storms initially form, so if you plan to attend a high school football game in the area this evening, be sure to dust off the severe weather alert app just in case, and keep an eye to the sky!

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First "Big" Snow of the Season in Butte, MT

...where 18 inches of the white stuff fell overnight and this morning (photo taken just South of town, via twitter).

The latest run of the ECMWF ("European") computer forecast model calls for the first locally heavy snows of the season to spread Southeast across much of the remainder of the central and northern Rockies over the next 5-10 days:

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"Hurricane Drought" Continues In the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico...

...and the only people complaining about it are a select few of the "usual suspects" in the mainstream media.

The system that I blogged about at the beginning of the week (or last weekend?) in the Gulf of Mexico is in the process of being absorbed by a cool front at this time, so it no longer poses a threat of organizing into a tropical system:

Moisture from this system as well as the remnants of a tropical system in the Pacific did produce widespread, beneficial rainfall across much of southcentral and eastern Texas on Thursday and Friday, with 3-6 inches deposited in a good chunk of the Edwards Aquifer recharge zone (which lies immediately to the West of the Austin/San Antonio corridor).

The image below is the storm total rainfall estimate from the dual-pol radar at the New Braunfels airport (between Austin and San Antonio, scale in inches at the left hand side):

So, what are the prospects for organized tropical weather in the upcoming week to 10 days?  Pretty low the way it looks right now, but we'll keep an eye on it...

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Keeping an Eye on 1st Hurricane Potential of Season for U.S. Gulf Coast...

An area of disturbed weather is taking shape in the tropics near the Yucatan Peninsula today (red circled area on the visible satellite image above).  A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit the region this afternoon, and this system is very likely to be named a Tropical Depression or Storm in the next 24-48 hours.

Computer model forecast solutions are all over the place with this system so far, but the general consensus in the last 12-18 hours is focusing on eventual, direct impacts on the northcentral or northeast Gulf Coast (and I agree with that assessment at this time):

The HWRF computer model is the most "bullish" so far, forecasting a hit by a formidable hurricane along the Florida coast late this weekend or early next week:

I would caution that "upgrades" in the HWRF model earlier this year seem to have resulted in its drastically "over forecasting" the intensity of just about every tropical system so far this season.  With that said, folks along the Gulf Coast need to keep a close eye on the development of this system, as some degree of impact from what will likely be a hurricane can be expected later this weekend or early next week.  The good news is that we still have some time to watch the system and gauge its true intensity before it directly impacts the U.S. coast.

In the meantime, moisture from this system will spread West into an already water logged eastern Mexico, as well as much of southern Texas and eventually the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next 2-3 days.  The accumulated rainfall forecast from the WPC for the period today through 7pm CDT Saturday is shown below:

Again, if you live across the Gulf Coast from Texas through Florida, and especially the northcentral and northeastern parts of the Gulf Coast, please keep a very close eye on this system over the coming days. As always, you can track the progression of this and any other system with potential U.S. impacts on WeatherGuidance's Tropical Weather Homepage.

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"Shocking" Photo Illustrates Lightning Danger at Outdoor Arenas

Lightning struck a tree literally feet away from the bleachers at a high school football game in Orlando, FL this past Friday.

For full details, please read the post on WeatherGuidance's blogpage.

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Another Way to Look at Tornado Coverage

University of Florida Geography Professor James Elsner posted an interesting .gif animation on his blog recently.  It shows the approximate area of all U.S. tornadoes by year from 1950-2011, using a red circle centered on Oklahoma City as a point of reference:

I didn't choose 1988 for any particular reason, it just happened to be the year that was up on the rotation when I took the screen shot.  To view James' blog post with the full .gif animation, please go here.

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From the "Don't Try This At Home" Dept. - Waterspout near Pensacola, FL Yesterday...

This boater (egged on by the videographer/passenger you can hear in the background) got way too close for comfort to a waterspout near Pensacola, FL yesterday.  

While waterspouts may seem weaker than a land-based tornado, they can very, very easily flip a boat over before you even know what hit you (literally).

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Tornado Strikes Koshigaya, Saitama Region - Near Tokyo...

A strong tornado struck the Koshigaya region in Saitama Prefecture, to the North of Tokyo, Japan earlier today (local time).  The above screen grab was taken from the following video that was recently posted to YouTube:

Here is another YouTube video of the tornado from a different perspective (videography is not as good as the one above, but still revealing at times):

Damage is reported as widespread in the region, with regional media indicating 400+ buildings damaged and over 60 people injured.

The following photos of some of the damage were posted to twitter by Robert Speta, a U.S. meteorologist who is working in the area:

The Asahi Shimbun news agency posted the following damage photos:

Local radar (via Robert Speta on twitter) showed an apparent hook echo as the storm moved Northeast across the area:

Reportedly, over 30,000 households continue to be without power at this time.

Tornadoes are not unheard of in this area, but are unusual, especially compared to activity in the U.S.  The most deadly tornado in recent years took place on November 7, 2006 when 9 people were killed as a tornado struck the Saroma, Hokkaido region.

On May 6 of last year, a tornado struck the Tsukuba, Ibaraki region, killing a 14 year old boy and damaging over 800 homes.  An article on that tornado was posted on this blog at the time and can be found here.

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