Sunday, November 17, 2013

Rare "High Risk" for Tornadoes/Severe Storms Midwest & OH Valley Today...

A rarely issued (especially for November) "High Risk" of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms has been issued by the SPC for today in the Midwest and Ohio Valley region.

As we mentioned yesterday, please stay very alert in this region today.  Storms will be fast moving, and due to the threat of extensive and intense wind damage with any severe storm, I highly recommend that you treat a Severe Thunderstorm Warning just as you would normally treat a Tornado Warning today, taking the same sheltering action when in harms way.

Thunderstorms will get underway by mid morning near the Western edge of the outlook areas, and race East/Northeast this afternoon and evening.  The highest risk of tornadoes is within the "High" risk area, with widespread wind damage the primary threat otherwise, and extending throughout the "moderate" and "high" risk areas.

If you or someone you know will be attending the Ravens/Bears game in Chicago today, please make sure to identify sheltering options as you enter the stadium and move there quickly if your smartphone app indicates that a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Warning has been issued for that location.

Below is a forecast radar image from the high resolution HRRR model valid at kick-off (12 Noon CST):

If this model verifies, and there is a good chance it will, several possible supercell thunderstorms will be approaching the stadium from the West at kick-off.

The situation will evolve rapidly from midday, with a squall line forecast to develop across much of the moderate/high risk area by 3pm CST:

The highest tornado potential will be with isolated storms that form initially from mid to late morning, and then isolated cells ahead of the line this afternoon.  Widespread, potentially significant, wind damage can be expected with all severe storms today, and especially as the more solid line forms this afternoon.

Thunderstorms will be very fast moving today across the entire threat area, so there will be little reaction time available.  If a warning is issued for your area, please seek immediate shelter.

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