Was Hurricane Irene Really "Over-Hyped", or Did it Just Not Affect You?

Several of the "traditional" media outlets and tons of social media outlets (including bloggers) are out there today saying that certain factions of the meteorological community and related media "over-hyped" the potential impact of Hurricane (and later Tropical Storm) Irene this past weekend (some didn't even bother to wait for the storm to end before advancing that theory).

I'd like to ask those who believe that Irene was "over-hyped" a few questions:

If one of your friends or loved ones were one of the now 35 people that have been confirmed dead as a result of Hurricane Irene - would you feel that the event was over-hyped?

If you or your business were one of the 15 million that lost power at the height of the storm - would you feel that the event was over-hyped?

If you or your business were one of the 3.5 million - yes, 3.5 million - that still have no power as of this writing, and have been given an estimate of up to 2 weeks before power will be completely restored - would you feel that the event was over-hyped?

Power outages continue blue shaded areas

I realize those of you who are pro "it was hyped" are probably rolling your eyes and growing tired right now... but stick with me on this for just a minute...

If you or your business were one of the tens of thousands that currently reside within the flood zone of a bank-full river that isn't forecast to crest for up to a week - would you feel that the event was over-hyped?

There are many more examples, but as they say, a picture is worth 1,000 words....so:  If you were walking along what used to be a state highway along the North Carolina coast that has now been reduced to rubble (like the gentleman walking in the picture at the top of this post) - would you feel that the event was over-hyped?

Common sense says that the answer to each of the above questions would be a resounding "NO" - but I realize that's not the society that we live in today.  In the always on, "it's all about me" world, many are only concerned with anything that's happening within a 50 foot radius (and that may be generous) of good 'ol NUMBER ONE.

Sure, Irene could have been much, much worse, and I for one am thankful that she didn't live up to her full potential.  While winds at the surface level were sustained at "only" 90 mph with gusts to 115 mph along the North Carolina coast (see image below), just a few hundred feet above the surface level the winds were howling at 130-140 mph - sustained!

Maximum wind gusts observed with Irene

Sustained winds were generally 75-80% of the gust values

Why the stronger winds just a few hundred feet aloft did not mix down to the surface level is just one of several questions that we have left to answer after an event such as Irene, but that's a good example of why myself and other meteorologists were warning residents and businesses in high-rise buildings that winds would be stronger above the 20th floor than they would be at the surface.

You see, in the weather business, you take the best information that you have available and pass it along in the best way that you know how.  Whether or not those on the receiving end of the warning choose to listen is out of your control to a great degree.  That is a personal decision that is made by balancing past experience with current information.  If the person being warned feels threatened, they'll probably act (to what degree depends on the person).  If they don't feel threatened they'll probably sit back and watch how things play out for awhile before deciding whether or not to take action.

The above maximum wind gust map (which I compiled by utilizing the Iowa State University database that you can access here) only tells part of the story.  There were thousands of individual reports of uprooted trees which resulted in power outages without giving specific wind gust estimates.  The image below shows where those types of reports were concentrated, to the right of the red line:

While I can't speak for other weather-related bloggers or those in the media, the single most significant impact of Irene that we warned of on this blog was the possibility of widespread tree and powerline damage, which would lead to widespread power outages.  Whether or not you call that "over-hyping" is open to interpretation I suppose, but in the end, you can't argue with the facts.

Add to that the flooding that is ongoing or has yet to occur (because rivers are still rising and have not yet flown out of their banks in many areas) and Irene will top out as a storm causing damage in the tens of billions of dollars - one of the top 10 (and possibly in the top 5) costliest hurricanes in U.S. History.  That's not hype - that's a cold hard fact.

Let's look at Irene another way.  An EF-0 tornado has wind speeds of 65-85 mph.  Using that criteria, Irene was the equivalent of a nearly 200 mile wide EF-0 tornado that traveled along a path over 750 miles in length and inhabited by over 50 million people.  Let me ask you this:  if we could give advanced, track-specific warning on such a tornado event, would you want to hear about it, or would we be over-hyping the event?

Sure, the forecast may not have been perfect (and the degree of accuracy, as always, was highly dependent upon the source), but really, when was the last time you've been given 5 days advance warning of the equivalent of a 700+ mile long, 200 mile wide EF-0 tornado that was as accurate as the track forecast provided for Hurricane Irene?

Was it really over-hyped, or was it just inconvenient?

Putting all of the hype vs. reality arguments aside, the real question is this:  Will you be ready when the next hurricane approaches?  Perhaps more importantly, if you receive warning that your family is threatened by the storm, will you take action and move to a safe place in advance, or will you decide to stay behind and take your chances just because you felt (or were told) that Irene was over-hyped ("so this one must be too")?

After weighing the options as they relate to where you live and how the storm is forecast to come in, I hope that you'll choose the former option... because the latter one is a gamble that could end up costing you your life...

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Initial Summary of Irene Damage / Other Reports

As of this writing, 10 people have been confirmed dead and over 15,000,000 commercial and residential customers are without power along the East coast in the aftermath of Hurricane (and Tropical Storm) Irene.  

I'll be a bit more specific in a later post, however I wanted to give you a snapshot of some of the wind damage (mostly to trees and power lines as expected) and peak wind reports by region.  The images below start with reports in North Carolina, and then work Northward, ending in New England.  Flood reports are not highlighted here, only wind specific wind speed reports and wind damage reports.  There were thousands of reports, I tried to choose those which were representative of any given area on the images below:

Widespread flooding also continues in the aftermath of Irene, with rivers not even expected to crest for days or even a week before the waters subside.  The purple and red colored icons on the following images show where moderate to major river flooding is either underway or forecast this week:

The damage surveys have just begun.  When it's all said and done (including the flooding), damage will no doubt be in the tens of billions of dollars in association with Irene.  Thankfully, the death toll wasn't nearly as high as it could have been, particularly with 50+ million people being directly affected.  We certainly have that to be grateful for.  Of course, to those who did lose a loved one, that is little consolation, and our thoughts and prayers go out to them.

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Midday Irene Update...

Hurricane Irene made landfall near New York City at about 9am EDT this morning. Shortly after making landfall (at which time a wind gust to 91 mph was recorded over Long Island), maximum sustained winds decreased to near 65 mph (due to friction with the land, buildings, etc., as we would expect in such a large urban area) and she has now been classified as a Tropical Storm.

At 11am EDT, the center of Irene was located 10 miles West of Danbury Connecticut, and was moving North/Northeast at about 26 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are 60 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 28.53 inches of mercury (966 millibars).

The image below (click to enlarge) shows widespread high wind and wind damage reports from across the region overnight and this morning:

...and the same data is presented on the image below, but I've zoomed in to the NYC area and highlighted some of the more significant reports in the blue text boxes:

As expected, and as we saw further South on Saturday, widespread tree and power line damage has been the primary type of damage thus far.  Unfortunately, as you can see by a few of the highlighted reports, some folks were injured when outside and a tree fell, or even trapped in vehicles due to fallen trees.  I think if folks hadn't heeded the warnings in general, though, we'd be hearing of a lot more injuries, so that is certainly good news overall.  I'll make a separate post later today with a breakdown of reports all along the path of Irene, up through New England as well...so stay tuned for that.

Sustained winds of 50-60 mph with gusts to 70 mph are spreading Northward through southern New England at this time.  Both sustained winds and gusts are 20-30% higher above the 20th floor of high rise buildings, so please keep that in mind this morning and early afternoon as Irene moves through the region.

The primary threat, wind wise, will continue to be the downing of trees and power lines which could result in widespread power outages up into parts of New England this afternoon and evening.

Once the center of Irene passes into Vermont and New Hampshire this afternoon, the winds will likely have decreased into the 40-50 mph sustained with gusts to 60 mph range, which will continue a possibility on up into Canada tonight.

Tropical Storm Warnings continue in effect all along the coast along and ahead of Irene's path (dark blue shaded area on the image above).

Gusty winds to tropical storm force are still being observed well South of the center, as far back as coastal Virginia, New Jersey and Long Island, which is why warnings continue for those areas as well.  Winds will taper-off from South to North across Virginia, New Jersey, Long Island and the New York City area during the afternoon hours.

Storm surge coastal flooding of up to 4-8 feet can be expected as Irene continues to pull water up over Western portions of Long Island Sound, Eastward along the Southern coasts of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.  This will especially be a hazard today near the times of high tide.  For more detailed information on potential for local storm surge impacts, please go to this link and select the NWS office nearest you.

Very heavy, potentially flooding rains will be the other hazard from Irene today.  Widespread amounts of 5-7 inches with localized totals of 10-12 inches can be expected along and ahead of Irene today and early tonight:

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Irene Becomes First Hurricane of Atlantic Season

As expected, Irene became the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season earlier this morning. The particulars as of the 9am EDT advisory are shown on the upper left corner of the satellite image above.

The track forecast remains in line with the thinking presented in my last detailed post yesterday.  I'll make a similar post later today with any updates...

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Irene Strengthening - Update for Puerto Rico

The above image was just taken from the radar site at San Juan, Puerto Rico. As you can see, Tropical Storm Irene is becoming better defined, with an eye-like feature clearly taking shape around the center.  As of the 8pm EDT National Hurricane Center advisory, the center was located 90 miles East/Southeast of San Juan, and moving West/Northwest at 15 mph.

The wind velocity (wind speed and direction) mode of the radar indicates sustained winds of 64 mph about 5,000 feet above the surface, on the Northern side of the center (white circled area with text notation on the image below):

About a half an hour ago, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a surface wind of 60 mph near the same location.  Meanwhile, the barometric pressure at the airport in St. Croix has fallen to 29.38 inches of mercury - another sign of an intensifying system.

Based on the present track of the system, as well as the location of the strongest surface winds in relation to the center, at least Tropical Storm force winds can be expected across Puerto Rico this evening into tonight, and I would not be surprised if Hurricane or near Hurricane force winds were to take place later tonight, particularly across the Northern one-half of the island.

For details on the forecast track of Irene beyond Puerto Rico, including the potential for a significant impact across most of the U.S. Eastern seaboard, please see my earlier post here.

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Irene Approaching Puerto Rico; Potential for Huge Impact Along U.S. Eastern Seaboard August 25-31

At 4pm CDT (5pm EDT), the center of Tropical Storm Irene was located near St. Croix, or about 120 miles East/Southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 50 mph, and the minimum central pressure was 29.50 inches of mercury.  Irene was moving toward the West/Northwest at about 17 mph.


You can clearly see the circulation around the center of Irene on the latest radar image from San Juan, Puerto Rico:

As you can see, showers and thunderstorms are rapidly overspreading Puerto Rico at this hour, and this trend will continue into tonight, along with an increase in East-Northeasterly winds initially at Tropical Storm force, but likely near hurricane force later tonight.  In addition, 5-10 inches of rain is also likely in parts of Puerto Rico through tonight and early Monday.

Irene took a jog to the North since the last update, which will result in the center passing directly over or perhaps even just North of Puerto Rico overnight tonight and early Monday.

In the medium to longer-range timeframe, the computer model guidance continues to shift the track of Irene toward the "right".  The latest computer model forecast composite image is shown below:

With the above as well as the recent movement of the system on satellite and radar imagery in mind, the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track (see image below) is quite a bit to the left of the model and observational consensus at this time:

I have a feeling that we'll continue to see the NHC shift the forecast track to the right based on recent observational and model trends.  As I pointed out in a post earlier today, the ultimate key to predicting the amount of impact the system will have on Florida later this week hinges on when Irene will make a turn more toward the Northwest.  At this time, the model consensus points to this taking place on Tuesday after the system passes over Haiti.  I'd also like to point out that on this more Northerly track that has been observed today and is forecast by the models going forward, there may be less of a land impact than earlier expected, which could result in an even stronger hurricane ultimately affecting the U.S.

At this point in time, there is little doubt in my mind that Irene will have an impact on Florida late Thursday and into Friday - primarily for the Eastern part of the state as alluded to in my earlier post.  The question is how much of an impact will she have on Florida?  We should know the answer to this question more definitively by late Monday or Tuesday.  In the meantime, I strongly urge residents of Florida, particularly along the Eastern coastline, to make preparations sooner rather than later.

In my post earlier today, I mentioned that in my mind, the likely track of Irene (with respect to Florida), looks remarkably similar to that of Hurricane Cleo from back in 1964:

This general theory continues to hold water (no pun intended) at this time.  If anything, the Cleo track may end up being slightly to the left of where Irene ultimately travels, if the current observations and forecast model guidance pan out.

If the center of Irene remains offshore, even just immediately offshore, of Florida, then the system will likely grow even stronger as it approaches the Georgia/South Carolina border areas by early Saturday.  This possibility is hinted at by the recent runs of the ECMWF model (image below valid 8am EDT Saturday, 8-27-11):

...as well as the latest GFS model forecast valid at the same time:

If the above model solutions verify, then we could be looking at a Category 3 or stronger storm impacting the region from Georgia to the Carolinas over the upcoming weekend.  The last time a "major" (Category 3 or higher) hurricane impacted this area was in association with Hurricane Hugo back in 1989.  Hugo ultimately ended up a Category 5 storm.  I'm not saying that Irene will do the same, but she is likely to be at least Category 3 based on current projections.

What all of this means is that if you live anywhere along the Southeast U.S. coast, from Florida through Georgia and the Carolinas, you should begin preparing for Hurricane Irene now.  Take the opportunity to review your preparedness plan and stock up on needed supplies now while they are plentiful, rather than waiting until closer to the time of potential impact when they are likely to be harder to come by.

Furthermore, this system could have significant impacts much further Northward along the Eastern seaboard into the following week (week of August 28th).  This was alluded to in my post earlier today, and that forecast is still "on track" at this time.  Below is the latest GFS computer model forecast valid 8am EDT Monday, August 29th.  As you can see, the model is forecasting the system to be right on top of New York City at that time:

If the above computer model forecast verifies, some serious trouble with respect to both rain and wind can be expected in the "Big Cities" of the Northeast in roughly 1 weeks time.  A lot can obviously change between now and then, but this should serve as fair warning to all folks along the Eastern seaboard to keep a close eye on the progress of Irene over the coming days.

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Irene Organizing in Caribbean - Threat to Florida by Friday, Eastern U.S. Beyond

The above satellite image shows the center of Tropical Storm Irene swirling about over the Caribbean. At 8am EDT, the center of Irene was located about 35 miles West/Northwest of Guadalupe, and moving toward the West at a rather brisk 21 mph  Maximum sustained winds were 50 mph, and the minimum central pressure was 29.68 inches of mercury.

You can also clearly see the center of Irene (noted by the red arrow) on this recent image from the French Government's radar site at Guadalupe:

Irene is currently forecast to maintain a general West to West/Northwestward motion for the next couple of days, before turning more toward the Northwest by mid-week.  The "official" National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast is below:

Based on the present forecast track, the center of Irene will pass immediately South of Puerto Rico during the early morning hours on Monday.  Irene is then forecast to reach hurricane strength by the time she approaches the Dominican Republic later in the day on Monday.

Here in the U.S., of course, the concern is what track she will take beyond that point.  As I pointed out a few paragraphs above, computer forecast models continue to show Irene turning more toward the Northwest as she approaches Cuba by mid-week.  A composite image of the latest computer forecast model guidance is shown below:

As you can see, the official NHC forecast track lies right down the middle of the computer guidance at this time.  Both the majority of the computer models and the official NHC forecast currently indicate significant impact on Florida with the center tracking along the Southern or Eastern coast during the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning.  The exact timing of the expected Northwestward turn of Irene late Tuesday or early Wednesday will hold a major key to pinpointing the locations of greatest impact in Florida.

The major key to forecasting the intensity of Irene when she reaches Florida will be how much land mass the center of the storm will pass over as she crosses the rugged terrain of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba early this week.  Forecast models and the official forecast both show weakening due to this, however it is likely that Irene will rapidly develop back to hurricane strength once she emerges out over the very warm waters between the Florida Straights and Cuba on Thursday.

From now through at least the impact on Florida, the forecast track of Irene is taking on a striking similarity to that of Hurricane Cleo back in 1964:

In fact, if we take a look at the latest GFS computer model forecast for the end of this week, you'll see just how close the projected path of Irene corresponds to the actual path of Cleo from 1964.  The first GFS image is valid 8am EDT Friday, 8-26-11 (Irene is the "blob" over Florida in the lower left quadrant of the image):

The next is valid at 8am EDT Saturday, 8-27-11:

and finally, 8am EDT Sunday, 8-28-11:

Looking even further out into the future prospects of Irene, the GFS model from next Sunday forward continues to track the system along the Eastern seaboard into southern New England, as shown on the series of images below, first being valid 2pm EDT Monday, 8-29-11:

...and 2pm Tuesday, 8-30-11:

This "coast hugging" track that is forecast by the GFS model from South Carolina on Northward along the Eastern seaboard is in close proximity to the actual track of Hurricane Charley from 2004 (though a little further Westward on the Northern end):

Beyond the Florida impacts on Friday, this is all of very speculative of course, however the overall middle and upper-level weather pattern does support a Cleo-Charley "hybrid" like track as depicted by the GFS forecast model images above.  If this indeed comes to pass, it is possible that we'll have significant impacts from Irene not only in Florida by the end of this week, but Northward along much of the Eastern seaboard through the early part of the following week.

Residents of Florida should begin making a plan of action for later this week now.  Stock up on needed supplies and review Hurricane Preparedness Tips early so that you don't have to rush around and potentially panic as the event draws near.

Residents all along the Southeast U.S. coast, and even Northward along the Eastern seaboard, should keep a close eye on the forecast track of Irene this week and be prepared to take action as the future path of the system becomes more definite.

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Tropical Storm Irene Is Born...

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has upgraded "Invest 97" to Tropical Storm Irene. Based on recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, I am not surprised by this move, as pointed out in a recent post.


Below is a satellite image of Irene on a little wider view so that you can see her current position in relation to the U.S. (which is in the upper-left corner of the image):

The official NHC forecast track is shown below:

Not surprisingly, the NHC forecast track is basically right down the middle of the latest computer forecast model guidance, which is shown on the composite image below:

I think they're being a bit conservative with the intensity forecast (which is typical - especially on the first advisory), but I am in agreement with the overall forecast track based on what I've seen so far.

If you live in Florida or the Southeast U.S., it would be a good idea to begin reviewing your Tropical Storm & Hurricane Preparedness Plan, and be ready to take action as more definite track and intensity forecasts are developed over the coming days.

I am preparing a more detailed post concerning the computer model forecasts and my thoughts on the potential track of Irene and plan to have that up tomorrow.  This afternoon's hurricane hunter aircraft data will be fed into the computer forecast model cycle this evening, which should provide some good additional information on this subject.

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Do We Have Irene Yet?

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is just finishing up a recon mission through "Invest 97" out in the eastern Caribbean.

I have superimposed the flight path and data observations on the satellite image above.   I sort of "connected the dots", if you will, with respect to the observed wind directions by drawing the red line with the arrows over the data.  As you can see, a counter-clockwise, closed circulation does exist.

The winds are very weak on the Southwest side (only 10-15 mph) near the center, but are very strong further to the Northeast.  The red circled area with text notation indicates where a dropsonde measured a 46 mph wind at the surface in the Northeast quadrant of the system.  Remember, only 39 mph winds are needed for a Tropical Storm.  Since I began typing this post, the detailed report/summary was published, which indicates that a maximum surface wind of 62 mph was measured 82 miles Northeast of the center:

In my opinion, we have Irene at this time... but who knows what the NHC is going to do.  It's been harder to predict what they're going to do at times this season than it has been to predict what the storms will do...

Regardless of what the "official" call is, the good news is that we now have a detailed set of recon data which will be ingested by this evening's computer forecast models, among other things...

The system has been battling the dry Saharan air for the past 24-36 hours, but is starting to move into a region with greater available moisture, as you can see on the water vapor satellite image below:

This should lead to further organization and intensification over the coming days...

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Invest 97 Looking Very Organized - Irene in the Making...

Tropical Invest 97 is looking very organized on satellite imagery this evening (center of image above). I would not be at all surprised if this system were to become Tropical Storm Irene on Saturday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.

Residents of Florida and adjacent portions of the southeast U.S. need to keep a close eye on this system as computer forecast models continue to converge on this region for potential landfall at the end of next week:

I plan to make one or more detailed posts regarding the model forecasts of this system over the weekend, so stay tuned!

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