Of Course It's Hot - It's July!

Call me old fashioned, but I fully expect it to be hot outside on a July afternoon.  I've lived in the southern U.S. my entire life.  If it weren't 95 degrees with a heat index of 105 every afternoon from June through September I would fear that I had been abducted by Siberian aliens.  That's what pools, rootbeer floats, popsicles, water balloon fights and air conditioners are for!  

I can't help but be amused by the news media freaking out this past week over  95+ degree weather in the Northeast.  Last time I checked it was summertime up there, too.  Call me an idiot, but as a result, I would expect it to be hot every now and then, even in New York City...

Don't get me wrong.  It's absolutely horrible to hear of anyone actually dying from heat exhaustion in their own home.  Many times this involves the elderly and/or folks with serious illnesses.  Here in Texas and around the country there are many organizations, like Family Eldercare, who will help folks in need with free fans.  

If you know an elderly person or someone in poor health who is without air conditioning in their home, help them find an agency in their area that can provide assistance during the hot summer months.  Better yet, take them to a movie, or the library during the hottest part of the day.  I bet even Wal-Mart would let you wander around in air conditioned comfort - and they might just sell something to you, too.  

This isn't Global Warming....this is JULY!

Tropical Depression 2

The tropical disturbance we've been monitoring over the past several days has been deemed a depression (actually was late yesterday evening).  The above image shows Tropical Depression 2 over the Western Gulf shortly after 6am this morning.  As of 7am central time, the center of the depression was about 80 miles East of Brownsville, TX.

It is currently moving to the Northwest at about 15 mph, and the track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is shown below:

Though still recovering from Alex, which took a very similar track last week, the waters over this portion of the Gulf are still very warm, and some further intensification is possible.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a small portion of the Mexican and Texas coasts, and the depression may strengthen to a minimal Tropical Storm Bonnie before making landfall.  As I blogged yesterday evening, the main threat from this system will be heavy rain.

Many areas of southeast Texas and northern Mexico are still trying to dry out from Alex last week, and the Rio Grande River is still flooding many areas, as well as smaller streams across the region.  This could be a very dangerous situation today into Friday as additional heavy rains fall over many of the same areas.  Below is the latest precipitation forecast for today:

As you can see, widespread amounts of 2-4 inches of rain are forecast across much of central and east Texas.  Localized amounts of 4-6 inches are likely in southeast and southcentral Texas.  This threat will spread West with time into Friday.

"Named Storm" or Not...Heavy Rains are in the Making...

The above image is a satellite picture taken a short while ago of a disturbance located in the western Gulf of Mexico (click the image to enlarge it).  This is the same system I've been blogging about for the past several days.  The 50% notation to the right is the Tropical Prediction Center (aka National Hurricane Center) forecast of the probability of the system becoming at least a Tropical Depression before making landfall over the next 48 hours.  

As I remarked in my last post on this system, it was less organized when compared to Alex before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula, which seems to have taken a toll on its ability to strengthen.  While that's obviously good news as far as high wind potential is concerned, it will still produce widespread, heavy rain across much of the same areas hit hard by Alex last week.  This will result in a significant flooding threat across portions of Eastern Mexico and Texas initially, then spreading Northeast into the central Plains through the weekend.

The image below depicts the HPC forecast rainfall amounts over the coming 5 days. As you can see, widespread amounts of 4+ inches are forecast from parts of central Texas into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with widespread 1-4 inch rainfall totals forecast on either side of those areas.

As I've said before, we can't look a gift horse in the mouth rainfall-wise during the otherwise hot and dry summer months, but folks in already rain-soaked areas need to stay alert and be prepared to move to higher ground if in a flood-proned area.

The above image depicts the latest computer model guidance as to the eventual track of this system.  Residents of Mexico & Texas (same areas where Alex hit last week) stay alert for the next 24-36 hours as this system approaches.  We'll be able to identify any significant wind threat during the day on Thursday, but at this time it appears to be a "toad choker" situation unfolding as described above.

Tropical Invests of Interest...

The above image is the Lake Charles, LA (KLCH) WSR-88D in reflectivity mode, taken a few moments ago.  The swirling configuration you see at the center of the image, just offshore of Franklin and Terrebonne Parishes in Louisiana, is the center of "Tropical Invest 95".  The system was moving almost directly North/Northwest earlier in the evening, but has recently turned more toward the West/Northwest.  So far this evening, surface and buoy observations have not indicated any sustained winds of tropical depression or storm strength (although there have been some gusts of depression strength).  As long as the center of circulation remains over warm Gulf waters, all bets are off; however, the close proximity to land will limit the potential of any significant development tonight before the system finally moves onshore in southern Louisiana.

Meanwhile, "Tropical Invest 96" continues to churn immediately to the East of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.  Below are the latest computer forecast model solutions as to where this system will move during the week.  The consensus continues to point toward the Texas coast.  Stay tuned....

Consensus is Shifting Northward...

The above infrared satellite image was taken about 30 minutes ago, and depicts the area of disturbed weather (thus far identified as "Tropical Invest 96") that I've been blogging about over the past several days, in the Western Carribean.


[Before I go any further, I'd like to take care of some "housekeeping" type business.  I guess I've always taken for granted that everyone knows that they can "click" on any image that I post in this blog and a larger, hopefully clearer, view will be displayed.  I've had a couple of folks ask me the past few days if I could make the images bigger on the blog.  Turns out they didn't realize they could click for a larger view.  I hope this helps!]


The squiggly (I guess that's a word as the trusty spell checker didn't flag me as a violator) lines spreading Northwest from the center of the disturbance depict the latest track forecasts by the major computer models.  As you can see, the consensus has shifted Northward since the last update, with eventual landfall shown along the middle Texas coast late this week.  Thus far, the models bring this system up to Tropical Storm strength in the Gulf.  As I mentioned in my last post, regardless of tropical storm or hurricane, additional heavy rains could cause siginficant problems across southeast Texas and Mexico should this forecast verify.


One major difference thus far between this system and Alex is that Alex had already become quite organized by this stage.  It will be interesting to see how this system holds-up after traversing the Yucatan peninsula over the next 24-36 hours.  It may have a harder time reorganizing once it emerges back out into the gulf, compared to what Alex was able to do.


Stay tuned!

Tropical "Invest 96" (aka Alex part 2?)

The visible satellite picture above was taken at 11:45 a.m. Central Time.  It shows a couple of tropical waves/disturbances over the Carribean and Atlantic basin.  The one toward the lower left corner of the image (to the Southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico) is the system that I blogged about a couple of days ago (which had already been picked up by the ECMWF computer models at that time).

The image below is a summary of the current forecast model tracks of this system.  As I pointed out in my last post on the subject, the models want to take this system on a strikingly similar (if not identical) track as with recent Hurricane Alex.  This trend has not changed thus far, and if anything has been solidified by other computer model forecasts jumping on board with the same conclusion.  Obviously a lot can change over the next 5 or 6 days, however we'll have to keep monitoring the system very closely.

The National Hurricane Center has scheduled a hurricane hunter aircraft to fly into this area tomorrow and investigate the system.  

Even if this system does not strengthen to hurricane force, the potential for additional heavy rains alone across parts of Mexico & Texas would be of great concern later this week.  Stay tuned!

Tropical Deja Vu?

No, the above image isn't a copy of a map from earlier this week showing Hurricane Alex approaching the Mexican coast South of Texas (note the "L" just off the Texas coast on the upper-right portion of the 4-panel image).  It is a computer forecast model from this morning produced by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF for short, thank goodness), and is valid at 7am Central Time this coming Friday, July 9th.  Now, keep in mind we're talking 7 full days out into the future, and the system depicted in the image above has not yet even formed in the Carribean Sea as of this writing, but the ECMWF has a pretty solid track record of accurately forecasting tropical systems.  It will certainly be interesting to see how this pans out over the coming week.


Meanwhile, beneficial rains continue to fall across much of southern and central Texas thanks to Alex.  The image below is of the New Braunfels, TX WSR-88D radar (KEWX), taken just a few moments ago.  This image depicts the radar's estimate of rainfall totals across the region since yesterday:

The dark purple areas Southwest of Houston (KHGX) indicate rainfall estimates of 8-10 inches, while the brighter red and orange areas depict rainfall estimates of 3-6 inches.  As you can see, widespread estimates of 2-4 inches are observed across much of the remainder of the region.

Texans know to be thankful for any amount of rain we receive during the summer months, but we could have some serious problems across portions of the southeast half of the state if another tropical system moves across the region as predicted by the ECMWF model forecast that I first spoke about.  Time will tell....stay tuned!