Thursday, July 8, 2010

Tropical Depression 2

The tropical disturbance we've been monitoring over the past several days has been deemed a depression (actually was late yesterday evening).  The above image shows Tropical Depression 2 over the Western Gulf shortly after 6am this morning.  As of 7am central time, the center of the depression was about 80 miles East of Brownsville, TX.

It is currently moving to the Northwest at about 15 mph, and the track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is shown below:
Though still recovering from Alex, which took a very similar track last week, the waters over this portion of the Gulf are still very warm, and some further intensification is possible.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a small portion of the Mexican and Texas coasts, and the depression may strengthen to a minimal Tropical Storm Bonnie before making landfall.  As I blogged yesterday evening, the main threat from this system will be heavy rain.

Many areas of southeast Texas and northern Mexico are still trying to dry out from Alex last week, and the Rio Grande River is still flooding many areas, as well as smaller streams across the region.  This could be a very dangerous situation today into Friday as additional heavy rains fall over many of the same areas.  Below is the latest precipitation forecast for today:
As you can see, widespread amounts of 2-4 inches of rain are forecast across much of central and east Texas.  Localized amounts of 4-6 inches are likely in southeast and southcentral Texas.  This threat will spread West with time into Friday.

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