Just as we expected this morning, the tropical wave to the Southeast of Florida was upgraded first to Tropical Depression 3 before Noon, then Tropical Storm Bonnie later in the afternoon. This system is moving West/Northwest and is expected to continue on a general Northwesterly track for the next few days.
Below are the computer model forecast tracks, as of 1pm Central Time today. Keep in mind the system was still "Tropical Depression 3" at the time the image was produced:
The National Hurricane Center is generally keeping with the middle of the above foreacast model tracks. Below is their latest forecast track map:
The letter "S" in the center of the black forecast point dots along the forecast track in the image above indicate that the Hurricane Center, and all of the forecast models so far, expect Bonnie to remain at Tropical Storm strength. She is not currently forecast to reach hurricane strength.
Even as a Tropical Storm, some serious problems are likely to occur in parts of Florida on Friday, and will also cause problems in the Gulf oil spill area over the weekend.