Thursday, July 22, 2010

"Bonnie to be" and Something in the Southwest Gulf

The tropics have continued to "heat up" over the last few days.  A couple of days ago I created a post on "Invest 97L", which is soon to become either a Tropical Depression, or perhaps go right into named Tropical Storm Bonnie.  This system is currently located in the Southeast Bahamas (noted by the red circle in the image above).  The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 100% chance of this system becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours.  In my opinion, based on satellite imagery and available surface observations, the system has already reached depression status.  I would expect an "upgrade" on the classification of this system later this morning.  Folks in Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico should watch this system closely over the coming days.  I'll post the latest computer model forecast guidance on this system later today after the morning computer models process the latest data.

The second area of interest, noted by the orange circle on the above image (in the extreme Southwest Gulf of Mexico), is a strong tropical disturbance advancing slowly westward toward Mexico.  This system also has a chance of becoming at least a tropical depression before moving into Mexico on Friday.  The National Hurricane Center currently places that probability at 50%.

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