Friday, July 23, 2010

A Disorganized Bonnie Reaches Florida

The center of Tropical Storm Bonnie crossed into the Biscayne Bay of Florida around 10am Central Time this morning.  The system has become very disorganized overnight and into this morning, and is now only a marginal Tropical Storm.  Heavy rains and gusty winds are the greatest threats as the system traverses the Florida peninsula today.  It is currently moving West/Northwest at almost 20 mph, a rather fast pace for a tropical system.

Many of the computer forecast models today are forecasting Bonnie to weaken, with some even forecasting a total loss of tropical characteristics as she emerges back out into the Gulf of Mexico later tonight.  The latest National Hurricane Center forecast track is below:

As you can see, the NHC is currently forecasting Bonnie to remain a Tropical Storm as she emerges back out into the gulf later today/tonight.  We'll have to see how the system holds-up over Florida today.  Right now, it looks to me like further weakening is likely, mainly due to the fact that such systems don't do well over land (loss of warm water, etc.), and she was rather disorganized when entering the peninsula to begin with.

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