Severe Threat Includes Widespread Damaging Winds This Week...

As we head deeper into the summer months, the threat for "significant" tornado activity generally tends to decrease, while the threat for very damaging straight line wind gusts increases - and that's definitely the type of pattern that appears to be shaping up for this week.

Below are the latest severe weather outlooks for today through Wednesday, respectively:

Today's severe weather threat will be characterized by generally short-lived "pulse" type thunderstorms that pop-up, produce gusty winds and marginally severe hail in spots, and then rapidly diminish.  An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but this will not be the dominant form of severe weather today.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat for organized and/or widespread wind damage will increase, particularly across the green shaded areas on the outlook for those days.  The primary threat will exist from late afternoon into the evening and early nighttime hours on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some of the wind gusts may indeed become very damaging (i.e., in excess of 80 mph) and widespread in the indicated areas.  This is the type of situation where you should treat a "Severe Thunderstorm Warning" just as you would a Tornado Warning, and seek shelter in a small interior room on the lowest floor until the storms pass.  In other words, please don't treat this situation like a "garden variety severe thunderstorm" event or you could be placing yourself or your family at greater risk of injury.

Stay tuned for updates as we head further into the week...

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Severe Weather Threat Increasing Again Today thru Wednesday...

After a (thankfully) relatively quiet period with only isolated to scattered severe weather events on Saturday and Sunday, it looks like we're going to be lunged back into a more active pattern for this week...especially the first half of the week.

Below are the severe weather outlooks for today through Wednesday, respectively:

Right now, it appears that the most active day will likely be tomorrow, Tuesday, as the combination of middle and upper level jet stream winds and Southerly low level winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the central and southern High Plains.  This type of set up is likely to produce some of the more organized storms of the week, with the potential for very large hail and tornadoes with the strongest storms.

Otherwise, there will be a risk for damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes with severe storms today through Wednesday, with the highest risk located within the green and reddish-orange shaded areas on the above images.

The threat of severe weather will shift East/Southeast into portions of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions on Thursday and/or Friday, but at this time there is too much uncertainty regarding the placement of low level boundaries to focus in on a particular area for an elevated threat.  Stay tuned for updates on that as we move through the week.

If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather threat areas, please stay alert, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.  Make sure you have a plan in place ahead of time so that you can quickly get to shelter if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Significant Hail and Tornado Threat Again Today in Oklahoma - Adjacent Areas...

As the saying goes, "there's no rest for the weary" and that will certainly be the case again today I'm afraid for our friends in  Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southern Missouri.

The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown above, and the reddish/orange shaded area shows a significant threat of severe weather, including the potential for strong and/or long track tornadoes and hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter.

The most pronounced threat of severe weather includes the cities of Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Joplin, Springfield and Fayetteville (much the same areas as yesterday).

Activity will develop and/or intensify by mid to late afternoon and continue into the evening, so please pay attention to the weather if you live or have travel plans across the region.

Please be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, even at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Significant - But Not Widespread - Severe Weather Threat Again Today...

There is a threat of significant severe weather across the Plains again today, within the red shaded area on the image above.  By significant, I am indicating that the potential exists for hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and strong and/or long track tornadoes in this area.  

This threat includes the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita Falls, Wichita, Emporia, Chanute, Joplin, Springfield, Fayetteville and Ft. Smith.

I noted in the headline that the threat would not be widespread, as the activity today is more likely to be isolated to scattered in coverage within the "significant" severe weather threat area.  While that may sound good from a coverage standpoint, those of you who live in the area know that it is bad news from a severe potential standpoint, as isolated, supercell storms are the ones that produce the most significant tornadoes and severe weather.

For that reason, please be on the alert in this area from mid to late afternoon into the evening hours especially.

I'll try and provide another update at midday or early afternoon once the situation begins to unfold.  Folks on the Western edge of the risk area would be impacted first, with the activity then spreading East/Northeastward over time.  It is much easier to post an update on facebook and/or twitter, so if you're interested in receiving more frequent updates, please be sure to follow me there if you haven't already.

If you live anywhere within the severe weather outlook areas for today and tonight, please be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, event at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Several Significant Severe Weather Events Likely Today...

We are likely to see several significant severe weather events across the Plains and Midwest today into early tonight.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, large to very large hail, and the potential for very damaging straight line wind gusts over a fairly large geographic area.

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today.  The highest potential for very large hail, tornadoes and potentially very damaging winds will exist within the reddish/orange shaded area, including the cities of Amarillo, Lawton, Woodward, Enid, Pratt, Great Bend and Colby.  Some of this threat could extend East as far as the I-35 corridor in the OKC Metro area late this evening or early tonight.

The potential exists for hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and strong and/or long track tornadoes within the red/orange shaded area, so please pay particular attention to the weather in this region this afternoon through early tonight.

Otherwise, scattered severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible across the remainder of the outlook area, especially within the yellow and green shaded areas.  A few tornadoes are also possible with severe storms in these areas, especially with any storm that is able to remain isolated and become well organized.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be widespread across much of the same region today and tonight, with amounts in excess of 2 inches possible in areas with repeat thunderstorm activity:

If you live across the severe weather threat areas for today, please be alert, especially from mid to late afternoon through this evening and early tonight.  Be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, event at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Keep an Eye to the Sky This Week for Severe Weather Threats...

If you've been monitoring the severe weather outlook pages (2nd link on the right hand navigation menu here on the blog homepage) for the last few days, you've no doubt noticed an increase in the severe weather threat for the coming week, beginning today.

The latest outlooks for the next four days are shown below:

If you live in these areas, and especially within the green and/or red shaded areas, please pay particular attention to the weather, especially during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

Large hail, damaging winds and an increasing risk of tornadoes will be associated with the severe weather threat each day.

With lots of outdoor holiday plans in place for today across the Plains, make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings no matter where you're at, and take a few moments to identify your best sheltering option, especially if you're in an unfamiliar place.

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Tornado Watches In Effect Until 10pm...

...for southeast Kansas, western Missouri and a large part of central and eastern Oklahoma.  The extreme Northwest corner of Texas, in the Wichtia Falls area, is also included:

Very large hail (baseball size or larger) will be distinct possibility with thunderstorms that form within this area this afternoon and evening.  Tornadoes are also likely with the most organized storms, and one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible.

The watch areas include Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Springfield, Kansas City (although the threat there will only be for the next couple of hours), and the Columbia/Jefferson City area.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the Western edge of the watches during the next 1-2 hours, and move Northeast.  The activity will likely congeal into one or more lines or clusters of storms toward sunset, which could threaten locations to the East of the current watch areas late this evening and into early tonight.  Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat by that time.

The most dangerous time today will be from 45-60 minutes after any storm develops and matures, through about an hour or so after sunset.  Similar to yesterday, we are likely to see one or more strong, long track tornadoes with these storms, before they begin consolidating into lines or clusters.  Keep a very close eye on the cells that become well organized and remain relatively isolated from the rest of the activity.

Please make sure that you have identified your best sheltering option at home, work, school or recreational locations and be ready to move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Significant Severe Weather Likely Again Today - Including Much of Oklahoma...

Severe weather is likely again today, unfortunately in much the same area as yesterday (especially with regard to Oklahoma and southwest Missouri).  

Some of the storms could produce very large hail and one or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on the above image.

The primary threat will exist from mid to late afternoon into this evening.

Please pay very close attention to the weather in these areas today...and check back here for a more detailed update around midday.

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Severe Weather About to Get Underway in the Plains...

Above are Tornado Watches that have gone into effect within the last hour.  Expiration times are noted in white inside of each watch box.  Very large hail and tornadoes are possible with any storm that forms in these areas, and strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, especially in the Oklahoma and eastern Kansas watch areas.

Already, one storm is strengthening rapidly right out of the box, almost half way between Anthony and Wichita, KS.  

This storm bears watching and is moving in the general direction of Wichita.

I will post as many pertinent updates as I can this afternoon, but most likely on Facebook and/or Twitter rather than here on the blog (as I can get the word out much faster that way), so please follow me there if you haven't already...and most of all, stay safe!

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Significant Severe Weather Threat Continues Today & Monday...

Nothing has really changed since my detailed post yesterday morning.  Severe storms, including tornadoes and very large hail, are likely again today and Monday, primarily during the mid to late afternoon and evening to early nighttime hours each day.

Some of the severe weather events will be significant, and with the threat progressing Eastward into a much more heavily populated region, there could be several major impacts that take place today and Monday.

Here is the latest severe weather outlook for today:

...and for Monday:

...both of which are largely unchanged from yesterday's forecast for the same dates.

It still appears quite likely that one or more significant tornadoes (i.e., strong to violent and/or long track) will take place this afternoon and/or evening, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on today's outlook.  This threat includes the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Springfield, Wichita, Kansas City, Des Moines and Omaha.

In addition to the tornado threat, very large hail can be expected in this region, likely baseball size or larger in the strongest storms.  Damaging thunderstorm winds are also possible.

If you live in the severe weather threat areas for this afternoon and evening, please keep in mind that this is particularly dangerous situation.  Stay alert and make sure that you have (1). a way to receive weather warnings and (2). a pre-designated shelter or other safe place to go.

If you are attending a graduation or other public ceremony today, please be sure to identify the nearest shelter or safe area as you enter the location.  Many public venues in this part of the country display a sign or other symbol so as to direct you to the best location, like in these examples:

Please be sure to identify this safe area as you first arrive to the location, because if something unfortunate happens while you're there, it could become quite chaotic at that time.  There's no need to panic, and you won't have to if you already have a plan in place before there is any potential for bad weather.

Stay tuned for updates as the afternoon progresses.

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Severe Weather Update for Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas for Today...

Above is the latest analysis of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) across the primary severe weather threat area for today.  CAPE is a measure of how unstable the atmosphere is, and the values in excess of 5,000 across Oklahoma and southwest Kansas are extreme by any measure.

A surface low pressure area is strengthening over the central Oklahoma panhandle area, with a dryling trailing off to the South and a warm front arching to the East then Southeast across central Oklahoma.

The winds are out of the East to Southeast along and immediately to either side of the warm front, which will provide favorable turning in the atmosphere to cause storms to rotate later this afternoon and evening.

Storms will likely initially form along and ahead of the dryline by late afternoon, and also along and North of the warm frontal boundary.

The latest run of the high resolution NAM model generally agrees with that scenario, as shown on the simulated radar forecast images valid at 4pm, 5pm, 6pm and 7pm today, respectively:

Tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds will be possible with severe storms in this region today, with the highest risk located within the red and orangish-red shaded areas on the image below (which is unchanged from my earlier outlook):

Please stay weather aware in these areas - and be prepared to move to shelter quickly if threatening conditions are observed or a warning is issued.

As I mentioned in my post earlier today, graduation ceremonies and other events are abundant across the region this afternoon and evening.  If you are heading out to a public place, be sure to note your best sheltering option while entering the venue, just in case.  Many public places have signs like these to help direct you to a safe place, but be sure to identify them ahead of time, not in the heat of the moment when you're likely to be distracted:

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