Severe Threat Includes Widespread Damaging Winds This Week...

As we head deeper into the summer months, the threat for "significant" tornado activity generally tends to decrease, while the threat for very damaging straight line wind gusts increases - and that's definitely the type of pattern that appears to be shaping up for this week.

Below are the latest severe weather outlooks for today through Wednesday, respectively:

Today's severe weather threat will be characterized by generally short-lived "pulse" type thunderstorms that pop-up, produce gusty winds and marginally severe hail in spots, and then rapidly diminish.  An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but this will not be the dominant form of severe weather today.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the threat for organized and/or widespread wind damage will increase, particularly across the green shaded areas on the outlook for those days.  The primary threat will exist from late afternoon into the evening and early nighttime hours on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some of the wind gusts may indeed become very damaging (i.e., in excess of 80 mph) and widespread in the indicated areas.  This is the type of situation where you should treat a "Severe Thunderstorm Warning" just as you would a Tornado Warning, and seek shelter in a small interior room on the lowest floor until the storms pass.  In other words, please don't treat this situation like a "garden variety severe thunderstorm" event or you could be placing yourself or your family at greater risk of injury.

Stay tuned for updates as we head further into the week...

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Severe Weather Threat Increasing Again Today thru Wednesday...

After a (thankfully) relatively quiet period with only isolated to scattered severe weather events on Saturday and Sunday, it looks like we're going to be lunged back into a more active pattern for this week...especially the first half of the week.

Below are the severe weather outlooks for today through Wednesday, respectively:

Right now, it appears that the most active day will likely be tomorrow, Tuesday, as the combination of middle and upper level jet stream winds and Southerly low level winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the central and southern High Plains.  This type of set up is likely to produce some of the more organized storms of the week, with the potential for very large hail and tornadoes with the strongest storms.

Otherwise, there will be a risk for damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes with severe storms today through Wednesday, with the highest risk located within the green and reddish-orange shaded areas on the above images.

The threat of severe weather will shift East/Southeast into portions of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions on Thursday and/or Friday, but at this time there is too much uncertainty regarding the placement of low level boundaries to focus in on a particular area for an elevated threat.  Stay tuned for updates on that as we move through the week.

If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather threat areas, please stay alert, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.  Make sure you have a plan in place ahead of time so that you can quickly get to shelter if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Significant Hail and Tornado Threat Again Today in Oklahoma - Adjacent Areas...

As the saying goes, "there's no rest for the weary" and that will certainly be the case again today I'm afraid for our friends in  Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southern Missouri.

The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown above, and the reddish/orange shaded area shows a significant threat of severe weather, including the potential for strong and/or long track tornadoes and hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter.

The most pronounced threat of severe weather includes the cities of Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Joplin, Springfield and Fayetteville (much the same areas as yesterday).

Activity will develop and/or intensify by mid to late afternoon and continue into the evening, so please pay attention to the weather if you live or have travel plans across the region.

Please be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, even at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Significant - But Not Widespread - Severe Weather Threat Again Today...

There is a threat of significant severe weather across the Plains again today, within the red shaded area on the image above.  By significant, I am indicating that the potential exists for hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and strong and/or long track tornadoes in this area.  

This threat includes the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita Falls, Wichita, Emporia, Chanute, Joplin, Springfield, Fayetteville and Ft. Smith.

I noted in the headline that the threat would not be widespread, as the activity today is more likely to be isolated to scattered in coverage within the "significant" severe weather threat area.  While that may sound good from a coverage standpoint, those of you who live in the area know that it is bad news from a severe potential standpoint, as isolated, supercell storms are the ones that produce the most significant tornadoes and severe weather.

For that reason, please be on the alert in this area from mid to late afternoon into the evening hours especially.

I'll try and provide another update at midday or early afternoon once the situation begins to unfold.  Folks on the Western edge of the risk area would be impacted first, with the activity then spreading East/Northeastward over time.  It is much easier to post an update on facebook and/or twitter, so if you're interested in receiving more frequent updates, please be sure to follow me there if you haven't already.

If you live anywhere within the severe weather outlook areas for today and tonight, please be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, event at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Several Significant Severe Weather Events Likely Today...

We are likely to see several significant severe weather events across the Plains and Midwest today into early tonight.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, large to very large hail, and the potential for very damaging straight line wind gusts over a fairly large geographic area.

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today.  The highest potential for very large hail, tornadoes and potentially very damaging winds will exist within the reddish/orange shaded area, including the cities of Amarillo, Lawton, Woodward, Enid, Pratt, Great Bend and Colby.  Some of this threat could extend East as far as the I-35 corridor in the OKC Metro area late this evening or early tonight.

The potential exists for hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and strong and/or long track tornadoes within the red/orange shaded area, so please pay particular attention to the weather in this region this afternoon through early tonight.

Otherwise, scattered severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible across the remainder of the outlook area, especially within the yellow and green shaded areas.  A few tornadoes are also possible with severe storms in these areas, especially with any storm that is able to remain isolated and become well organized.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be widespread across much of the same region today and tonight, with amounts in excess of 2 inches possible in areas with repeat thunderstorm activity:

If you live across the severe weather threat areas for today, please be alert, especially from mid to late afternoon through this evening and early tonight.  Be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, event at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Keep an Eye to the Sky This Week for Severe Weather Threats...

If you've been monitoring the severe weather outlook pages (2nd link on the right hand navigation menu here on the blog homepage) for the last few days, you've no doubt noticed an increase in the severe weather threat for the coming week, beginning today.

The latest outlooks for the next four days are shown below:

If you live in these areas, and especially within the green and/or red shaded areas, please pay particular attention to the weather, especially during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

Large hail, damaging winds and an increasing risk of tornadoes will be associated with the severe weather threat each day.

With lots of outdoor holiday plans in place for today across the Plains, make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings no matter where you're at, and take a few moments to identify your best sheltering option, especially if you're in an unfamiliar place.

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Severe Weather Threat Shifts Southward Into Texas / Lower MS Valley Today...

As expected, the threat of severe weather is shifting Southward today, including a large part of the most heavily populated portion of Texas, as indicated in red on the above image.  

While some severe threat may develop as early as this morning across far northern Texas, the bulk of the severe threat is forecast to develop and/or increase from mid to late afternoon in to this evening.

Below are radar simulations as forecast by the high resolution NAM computer 

model, valid at 1pm and 4pm CDT today, respectively:

While its important not to take the forecast storm positions literally, this does give you a good idea as to where the bulk of the activity will be located at their respective times.

My main concern for the DFW Metroplex area (other than the severe weather threat itself) is the timing, which will be coincident or very near school release times across the area.  

As we move forward into this evening, the threat of severe weather will progress Eastward and Southward, including the Austin/San Antonio corridor along I-35 by late evening.  Below are the forecast radar images valid at 7pm and 10pm CDT, respectively:

Very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with all severe storms across Texas today, as well as within much of the red shaded area on the severe weather outlook image at the top of the post.

One or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, again primarily within the red shaded area on the outlook map at the top of the post.  This threat includes the cities of Dallas/Ft. Worth, Waco, Temple, Austin, Shreveport and Texarkana.

Elsewhere throughout the severe weather outlook areas for today, large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, with a few isolated tornadoes possible.

Please pay close attention to the weather if you live, work or have travel plans within the severe weather threat areas for today.  Make sure to identify your best sheltering option, and listen for later updates and warnings.

As the severe weather threat for today is now moving into the heart of our primary client base for WeatherGuidance, I may not be able to post many updates later today.  If I do, it will most likely be on facebook and/or twitter, so please follow me there if you aren't already...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Significant Severe Weather Threat Continues Today & Monday...

Nothing has really changed since my detailed post yesterday morning.  Severe storms, including tornadoes and very large hail, are likely again today and Monday, primarily during the mid to late afternoon and evening to early nighttime hours each day.

Some of the severe weather events will be significant, and with the threat progressing Eastward into a much more heavily populated region, there could be several major impacts that take place today and Monday.

Here is the latest severe weather outlook for today:

...and for Monday:

...both of which are largely unchanged from yesterday's forecast for the same dates.

It still appears quite likely that one or more significant tornadoes (i.e., strong to violent and/or long track) will take place this afternoon and/or evening, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on today's outlook.  This threat includes the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Springfield, Wichita, Kansas City, Des Moines and Omaha.

In addition to the tornado threat, very large hail can be expected in this region, likely baseball size or larger in the strongest storms.  Damaging thunderstorm winds are also possible.

If you live in the severe weather threat areas for this afternoon and evening, please keep in mind that this is particularly dangerous situation.  Stay alert and make sure that you have (1). a way to receive weather warnings and (2). a pre-designated shelter or other safe place to go.

If you are attending a graduation or other public ceremony today, please be sure to identify the nearest shelter or safe area as you enter the location.  Many public venues in this part of the country display a sign or other symbol so as to direct you to the best location, like in these examples:

Please be sure to identify this safe area as you first arrive to the location, because if something unfortunate happens while you're there, it could become quite chaotic at that time.  There's no need to panic, and you won't have to if you already have a plan in place before there is any potential for bad weather.

Stay tuned for updates as the afternoon progresses.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

A Combination of Spring and Winter for the First Week of May...

I know it's not the first full week of May this week, but the calendar will flip on Wednesday, and some of you may be flipping out over the (winter) weather by that time as well, so I figured the headline is justified...

A strong area of low pressure will move across the Plains and Midwest this week, producing a variety of weather conditions.  As I mentioned in a post last week, some of that will include a threat of snow in areas that are certainly not used to seeing such conditions in May of all months!

First, dealing with the severe weather threat, conditions appear to be coming together for isolated to scattered severe storms both Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps a threat of more widespread and significant severe weather in spots on Wednesday.

Below are the severe weather outlooks for the first 3 days of the work week, respectively:

As you can see, the threat is forecast to expand in both coverage and intensity as we progress through mid-week.  The primary severe weather threat for Monday and Tuesday will be large hail and damaging winds, with an increasing threat of tornadoes by Wednesday, particularly within the green shaded area on the last image above.

At least some threat of severe weather will shift into the eastern U.S. toward the end of the week, and folks in that region should stay tuned for updates over the upcoming days.

Now, on to the wintry side of things - yes, I said wintry even though today is April 28th, and we're talking about the first part of May!

The potential exists for measurable snow across significant portions of the central and northern Plains and Midwest for the latter one-half of the upcoming work week.

The image below shows the probability of 1 or more inch of snow accumulation for the period 7pm CDT Tuesday through 7pm CDT Wednesday (or nearly the first 24 hours of May):

Sure, it's not like the cities that are forecast to receive snow aren't used to it, but we're talking May for crying out loud.  Many locations across this region will break records for late season snowfall the way it looks right now (even if little more than an inch of accumulation takes place).

So, it looks like we're in for a wild and crazy week of weather for sure.  Buckle your seat belts and stay tuned!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Unsettled Weather to Continue This Week...

While I don't see any "major" severe weather "outbreaks" in the offing for this week, there will be several opportunities for strong to locally severe storms across portions of mainly the southcentral and southeastern part of the country...

For today, the primary threat will extend across a small pocket of the central Plains, mainly across southern Kansas and Oklahoma:

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms are likely to form along and either side of a cold front that will be making its way across the area later this afternoon and into this evening.  Large hail is the primary threat, although an isolated tornado is also possible.

By Tuesday, the front will progress to the Southeast, with isolated to widely scattered strong to locally severe storms possible along and either side of it once again:

Hail and strong wind gusts are the primary threats for tomorrow, although once again an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with any isolated storm that is able to become well organized.

Rainfall in excess of 1 inch will be fairly widespread this week, from the Midwest into the central and southern Plains, with several pockets of precipitation in excess of 2 inches from Kansas and Oklahoma into Arkansas and southern Missouri:

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!