As expected, the threat of severe weather is shifting Southward today, including a large part of the most heavily populated portion of Texas, as indicated in red on the above image.
While some severe threat may develop as early as this morning across far northern Texas, the bulk of the severe threat is forecast to develop and/or increase from mid to late afternoon in to this evening.
Below are radar simulations as forecast by the high resolution NAM computermodel, valid at 1pm and 4pm CDT today, respectively:
While its important not to take the forecast storm positions literally, this does give you a good idea as to where the bulk of the activity will be located at their respective times.
My main concern for the DFW Metroplex area (other than the severe weather threat itself) is the timing, which will be coincident or very near school release times across the area.
As we move forward into this evening, the threat of severe weather will progress Eastward and Southward, including the Austin/San Antonio corridor along I-35 by late evening. Below are the forecast radar images valid at 7pm and 10pm CDT, respectively:
Very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with all severe storms across Texas today, as well as within much of the red shaded area on the severe weather outlook image at the top of the post.
One or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, again primarily within the red shaded area on the outlook map at the top of the post. This threat includes the cities of Dallas/Ft. Worth, Waco, Temple, Austin, Shreveport and Texarkana.
Elsewhere throughout the severe weather outlook areas for today, large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, with a few isolated tornadoes possible.
Please pay close attention to the weather if you live, work or have travel plans within the severe weather threat areas for today. Make sure to identify your best sheltering option, and listen for later updates and warnings.
As the severe weather threat for today is now moving into the heart of our primary client base for WeatherGuidance, I may not be able to post many updates later today. If I do, it will most likely be on facebook and/or twitter, so please follow me there if you aren't already...
For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter: