Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Large Hail, Some Significant, Likely Today thru Friday...

After a severe weather "drought" (relatively speaking) over the last several days, the southern and central Plains are about to become active again today through Friday, with some risk of severe weather also extending East into the Ohio Valley Region as well.

The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown below, which includes a threat primarily to the West of the Oklahoma City and Wichita areas:

A cluster of thunderstorms moved East/Southeast along the Oklahoma/Kansas border area overnight and early this morning.  The decaying thunderstorm activity has laid down several outflow boundaries across southern Kansas as well as western and central Oklahoma.  One or more of these boundaries may serve to focus thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, in addition to development that is expected to take place further West along a surface dryline.

Large hail is likely with the activity today and early tonight, some of which may exceed 2 inches in diameter, especially within the green shaded area on the above image.  Damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes are also possible.

A pronounced threat of large to very large hail appears to be taking shape for tomorrow afternoon and evening.  At this time the threat is expected to include the OKC Metro area, the DFW Metroplex and the Hill Country to the West of the Austin / San Antonio corridor along I-35:

Scattered strong to severe storms are also forecast to move East/Northeast into the Midwest and Ohio Valley Region Thursday afternoon and evening, with large hail the primary threat once again.

By Friday afternoon and evening, a threat of severe storms will settle Southeastward into the Austin/San Antonio area in Texas, on Northeastward into portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast:

At this time there not any signals that "scream" tornado potential in association with activity in a particular area nor on a particular day.  The thing to watch (as is often the case) will be for any storms that are able to remain isolated and become well organized before being taken over by larger lines or clusters.

If you live across the indicated areas, please remain alert and make sure to have a way to receive severe weather warnings and updates.  Be sure to identify your best sheltering option, that way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

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wilfred said...

cool weather blog rob! i like it!

Anonymous said...

Great blog! I recently was in a hail storm like this and it was actually awful. I had to get hail damage repair done to my house. Not to mention my car got dent :/