Showing posts with label Mid-Atlantic Weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mid-Atlantic Weather. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Significant Severe Weather Episodes Likely Today and Tomorrow...


As mentioned in a post on Monday, the potential exists for a significant wind damage event from late this afternoon into this evening and tonight over a large portion of the Midwest and Ohio Valley region.  The area at greatest risk is within the yellow shaded and lavender hatched area on the above image, which includes the cities of Chicago, Indianapolis, Ft. Wayne and Columbus.

The activity may initially begin with one or more isolated, supercell type storms, particularly over extreme eastern Iowa into northern Illinois, where a strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out before the activity congeals into a larger complex later this evening.

Once the larger bow echo and/or thunderstorm complex forms, it will race East/Southeastward, producing very damaging winds in excess of hurricane force over a potentially large area across the Ohio Valley region into tonight.  People across this region should prepare for the possibility of extended duration power outages as a result of the widespread high wind threat.

If you live across this region, please be very alert from mid to late afternoon into the evening and nighttime hours.  Make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, including during the overnight hours tonight.

Due to the potential intensity of the wind with these storms, this is one of those rare situations where I would recommend that you treat a Severe Thunderstorm Warning the same way that you would treat a Tornado Warning.  Seek shelter below ground if possible, or in a small interior room away from outside walls and windows until the storm passes your location.  

The threat of severe weather will shift Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva regions on Thursday, with widespread wind damage possible once again, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on the image below:


For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Large Hail, Some Significant, Likely Today thru Friday...

After a severe weather "drought" (relatively speaking) over the last several days, the southern and central Plains are about to become active again today through Friday, with some risk of severe weather also extending East into the Ohio Valley Region as well.

The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown below, which includes a threat primarily to the West of the Oklahoma City and Wichita areas:


A cluster of thunderstorms moved East/Southeast along the Oklahoma/Kansas border area overnight and early this morning.  The decaying thunderstorm activity has laid down several outflow boundaries across southern Kansas as well as western and central Oklahoma.  One or more of these boundaries may serve to focus thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, in addition to development that is expected to take place further West along a surface dryline.

Large hail is likely with the activity today and early tonight, some of which may exceed 2 inches in diameter, especially within the green shaded area on the above image.  Damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes are also possible.

A pronounced threat of large to very large hail appears to be taking shape for tomorrow afternoon and evening.  At this time the threat is expected to include the OKC Metro area, the DFW Metroplex and the Hill Country to the West of the Austin / San Antonio corridor along I-35:


Scattered strong to severe storms are also forecast to move East/Northeast into the Midwest and Ohio Valley Region Thursday afternoon and evening, with large hail the primary threat once again.

By Friday afternoon and evening, a threat of severe storms will settle Southeastward into the Austin/San Antonio area in Texas, on Northeastward into portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast:


At this time there not any signals that "scream" tornado potential in association with activity in a particular area nor on a particular day.  The thing to watch (as is often the case) will be for any storms that are able to remain isolated and become well organized before being taken over by larger lines or clusters.

If you live across the indicated areas, please remain alert and make sure to have a way to receive severe weather warnings and updates.  Be sure to identify your best sheltering option, that way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
 

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Heavy Snow Across St. Louis / Surrounding Areas...

It's snowing to beat the band on this late March day across portions of the Midwest.  Snow continues to fall heavily in the St. Louis Metro area this hour:


The numbers inside of the blue and purple squares indicate how much snow is on the ground at a given location as of the last 1-2 hours.  Note the 6-8 inch amounts across the Kansas City area, and 2-4 inches so far in St. Louis, but it's still snowing heavily there at this time.  Wichita ended up with 3-6 inches in most cases.

There is also cloud to ground lightning taking place across western and northern portions of the St. Louis metro area along with the snow at this time, as indicated by the plus signs within the yellow circled areas on the image below:


This is indicative of heavy snowfall with rates of 1-2 inches per hour likely.

Snowfall will spread East into the Ohio Valley through tonight and Monday, where Winter Storm Warnings (shown in pink on the map below ) are in effect:


Six inches or more of snowfall is likely across a broad swath from Missouri into the mountains of West Virginia and Virginia through tonight:


For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
 

Coming April 1, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!
• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)
• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom
• Tornado safety, preparedness and education
• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook
• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Isolated Severe Weather Threat in the Mid-Atlantic Region Today and Plains Tonight...


A weak frontal boundary will interact with a gradually moistening low-level atmosphere to produce scattered thunderstorms from portions of the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and this evening.

A few of the storms could produce hail and wind gusts near severe limits, as shown by the blue shaded area on the image above (click to enlarge).  A significant and/or widespread severe weather episode is not expected.

Further West, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop tonight from southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma, Eastward along the Arkansas/Missouri border.  There is a slight chance that one or two of these storms could produce hail approaching severe limits primarily after Midnight tonight and into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday, especially along the Arkansas/Missouri border region.

Our overall thoughts regarding the possibility of severe weather on Monday have not changed since the update yesterday afternoon.  I'll be posting another update on that situation by midday today.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!
• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)
• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom
• Tornado safety, preparedness and education
• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook
• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Friday, March 15, 2013

Thunderstorms Coming Back Into the Picture This Weekend...

After enjoying relatively quiet weather conditions across the nation for much of this week, things are starting to "heat-up" just a bit for today through the weekend, especially across the eastern third of the country...

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop tonight in the Midwest and Ohio Valley region in response to an increasingly moist, unstable airmass moving into the region from the South.  A few of the storms may produce hail near severe limits, especially after sunset (click image to enlarge):



Thunderstorm activity will become a bit more widespread on Saturday, with a risk of severe storms across portions of the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon and evening.  The primary threat in this region will be hail and wind gusts near severe limits (click image to enlarge):


There are signs that a more robust threat of severe weather may be taking shape for early next week (particularly Monday) across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region.  I'll have more on this threat in a detailed post later today...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!
• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)
• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom
• Tornado safety, preparedness and education
• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook
• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!




Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Winter Storm Organizing in the Midwest; Strong to Locally Severe Storms Possible Southeast Today...


After depositing 6-8 inches of snow in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area overnight, a strong winter storm is still organizing as it moves toward the Southeast today.

Snow has really started to pick up in the Chicago area during the last couple of hours, and a Winter Storm Warning is in effect across much of the region today and into tonight, as shown in pink on the image below:



Snow is likely to exceed 6 inches in many areas, especially within the lighter blue, pink and red shaded areas on the image below through tonight:


As you can see, the heaviest snow today and tonight will include the Chicago area, which is likely to receive its heaviest snowfall so far this winter.

The threat of heavy snow will shift East tomorrow and tomorrow night, reaching the mid-Atlantic and northeastern U.S., with greater than 6 inches in the indicated areas (same color scale as the image above):



On the warm side of the storm, strong to locally severe storms are possible in the Southeast U.S. today.  There have already been some reports of 0.5 inch to 0.75 inch hail this morning in northeast Mississippi and northern Alabama:


Storms may become a bit stronger during the heat of the afternoon today, with damaging wind gusts, hail to near severe limits and even an isolated tornado possible over northeast or east-central Alabama and portions of Georgia:


For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!
• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)
• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom
• Tornado safety, preparedness and education
• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook
• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Sunday, March 3, 2013

Latest Winter Storm to End Snow Drought in D.C.?

A major winter storm system will track from the northcentral Plains (today) through the Midwest and Ohio Valley (Monday and Tuesday) and reach the northeast and mid-Atlantic region by Wednesday of this week.

While some of the exact details have yet to be worked out (particularly for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions), its safe to say that cities such as Minneapolis, Chicago and the DC/Baltimore area that have not seen a lot of snow this winter are definitely in for accumulating snows with this system...

Here is the latest snowfall forecast from the U.S. GFS model valid now through Tuesday evening, showing heavy accumulation for both Minneapolis and Chicago:


...and then through Wednesday evening, with significant snow indicated for the Baltimore/Washington DC areas:


Winter Storm Warnings are in effect ahead of this system in the northcentral U.S. and Midwest, with more to come further to the East tomorrow:


For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
 

Coming March 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!
• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)
• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom
• Tornado safety, preparedness and education
• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook
• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!




Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Severe Weather Continues; Shifting into Southeast/Mid-Atlantic...

Strong to severe thunderstorms continue this morning along a strong cold front that currently stretches from near Buffalo, NY to New Orleans:


The front will continue Eastward during the day, with widespread wind damage a continued threat, especially over the southeast U.S. and mid-Atlantic regions, as shown by the red shaded and black hatched area on the image below:


Within this region, which includes the cities of Columbus, Atlanta, Columbia, Charlotte, Raleigh and Roanoke, damaging wind gusts may exceed 70 mph in some areas.  Such intense winds can cause just as many (or even more) problems as your "average" tornado, so please take the threat seriously if you live in this region.

Like yesterday, a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, however the primary threat will be wind damage, some of which could be significant.

Any tornado threat would primarily come in the form of brief spin-ups in rotating comma heads or "dog leg" signatures on radar.  Any isolated storms that are able to become well organized out ahead of the main line would have a locally higher potential for a tornado, but this would be a relatively isolated threat.

Elsewhere, strong to at times severe storms will be possible across a broad swath of the eastern U.S. today (as indicated by the yellow and brown shaded areas on the above image).  Here again, wind damage will be the primary threat.

If you live across the severe weather threat areas for today, please pay attention to the weather.  Review your severe weather safety and preparedness tips and be ready to seek shelter quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
 

Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!
• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)
• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom
• Tornado safety, preparedness and education
• Daily tornado outlooks/threat index
• Photos, videos & more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Wintry "Treat" for the South; Will Spread into Mid-Atlantic Later Today...


Above is a rare site - accumulating snow near the Mississippi/Alabama border in Starkville, MS (by Greg Nordstrom via twitter).  The area has picked up 1-2 inches of snow so far, and it's still coming down as you can see on the radar mosaic image below:


The reports in blue and purple on the radar map indicate snow depth at those specific locations, which as you can see are as high as 3 inches just South of Jackson and near Yazoo City, MS.  

Snow is beginning to mix in with the rain in west-central and northwest Alabama as well, and precipitation will change entirely to snow across this region during the morning hours.

The above represents the southern end of a swath of wintry precipitation that extends (or will later today) all the way up into the DC Metro and Delmarva Peninsula region.  A variety of winter weather advisories and warnings are in effect along and ahead of the storm system for today:



There is a high probability (greater than 60 percent) of 6 or more inches of snow from the mountains of eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina into central and western Virginia through tonight:


Note the low probabilities (brown and yellow - 5 to 10 percent) for 6 inches or more of snow extend back as far southwest as the region along the Alabama/Mississippi border that we were talking about earlier.  Widespread amounts of 2-4 inches are likely in this region, with up to 6 inches not out of the question.

As you can imagine, travel and commerce have been brought to a near standstill across the South where the snow is more unusual.  Conditions will become hazardous further to the Northeast throughout the day as the precipitation changes over to a mixture and then snow.  Please use caution if you must travel across the Winter Weather Advisory or Warning areas.  If you have air travel planned into or out of Atlanta, the Mid-Atlantic or the Baltimore/Washington area later today, I'd strongly advise checking ahead for delays and/or cancellations.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
 
If you are in need of highly customized, site specific weather forecasts and/or storm warnings for your business, school or event, be sure visit my professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.