Bret Making Northeast Turn

At 7am CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located 65 miles North/Northwest of Great Abaco Island. As expected, Bret has made a turn toward the North/Northeast, presently moving at about 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph, and the minimum central pressure 29.56 inches of mercury.

Bret is forecast to continue on a general Northeasterly motion for the next few days, which will take the threat largely out to sea.

At this time, it appears that Bret will pass well to the West of Bermuda very early on Friday morning, however we'll need to keep an eye on that region in the coming days just in case the track changes.

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TD-Two Now "Tropical Storm Bret" - East of Florida

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Depression Two to "Tropical Storm Bret", as of the 7:30 PM CDT Advisory. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph, and Bret is drifting South/Southeast at 2 mph.


Please see my last post on the system for a recap concerning the forecast movement of Bret, as that has not changed...


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"Tropical Depression Two" Forms Just East of Florida

The system we've been monitoring about 120 miles East/Southeast of Cape Canaveral, FL has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Two as of 3:30 PM CDT.  This system is drifting very slowly Southward at present.

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew through the system during the last 2 hours, and found widespread winds up to 38 mph (which is required for a Tropical Depression).  It also found a few spots with winds of 39-40 mph (which is technically Tropical Storm force).  Click to enlarge the image below, which shows the wind speeds as measured by the aircraft in the square boxes:

The system is currently forecast to wobble near its current position or drift very slowly Southward over the next several hours, then start turning toward the North to North/Northeast on Monday:

With winds already borderline Tropical Storm force, I would expect the system to be named Tropical Storm Bret sometime within the next 12 hours.

At present, this system does not appear to be a major threat to the U.S. (other than increased surf and showers/thunderstorms across parts of Florida), however if you live along the coast from Florida to the Carolinas, keep a casual eye on this system over the next 24-36 hours just in case any drastic change in track and/or intensity were to take place.

Maybe this would be a good time to dust-off those Tropical Weather Safety Tips and make sure that your Severe Weather Preparedness Kit is in good order just in case.  Even though you're not likely to need them now, the refresher could do you good for later in the season if a greater threat develops for your area.

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Tropical Disturbance Slowly Organizing Off of Florida Coast

***Update at 1pm CDT:  I will be surprised if this system is not upgraded to a Tropical Depression soon. The center of the system is coming into view on the Melbourne, FL radar (see red dot inside white circle on radar image below)and is starting to show a nice circulation:

You can also see the circulation on the visible satellite loop here.  It has remained nearly stationary since early this morning, with a tendency to drift slowly Southward, if anything.

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system.  We should have more information later this afternoon...

-----------------------------------------Original Post:

An area of disturbed weather that we told you about yesterday has continued to drift Southward and slowly organize over the last 24 hours. The system is currently located about 100 miles East of Cape Canaveral, FL (as shown in the latest visible satellite image above), and has an increasing amount of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it.  Some circulation is also noted on the latest satellite loop.

This system has been dubbed "Invest 98L" by the National Hurricane Center.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today if signs of organization continue - and I think they will.

At the moment, a band of Northwesterly winds aloft are "shearing" the system a bit, and injecting dry air into it.  Both of those factors tend to mitigate any rapid development of a tropical system.  However, those mitigating factors are forecast to lessen as the middle and upper level wind profile in the area changes during the next 24-36 hours.

Computer forecast models are literally "all over the place" with this one so far.  As you can see by examining the composite image below, some take it West into the Gulf, some take it East back out to Sea, and some take it back Northward:

At the moment, the thing to focus on is the fact that the system is drifting slowly Southward, which is likely to continue as long as the system remains weak and relatively unorganized.  If the system becomes better organized as the wind profile changes over the next 1-2 days, it is likely to begin moving back toward the North.  So, with this in mind, if you live in the Southeast U.S., and particularly Florida, please keep an eye on this system over the next 24-36 hours as we see how things continue to unfold.

Regardless of the later development of this system.... in the near-term, rain showers, thunderstorms and wave action will all be on the increase along the East coast of Florida today through Monday as this system continues to develop off to the East.

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Area of Disturbed Weather off of Florida / Georgia Coasts...

An area of disturbed weather has been slowly developing off of the Southeast U.S. Coast, in association with a decaying surface frontal boundary.  Middle and upper-level winds are not currently favorable for rapid development of the system, however that could change in the next few days.

This system is already producing shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of eastern Georgia and northeast Florida and will continue to do so as it drifts slowly Southward during the next few days.  Shower and thunderstorm activity will become more widespread across much of the remainder of Florida by Sunday and into Monday.

Computer forecast models generally keep the system off of the immediate East coast of Florida through at least Monday evening.  Residents across this region should keep an eye on the weather just in case this system develops any further into early this coming week.

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