Storms Organizing Out West Again

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop and organize in West-Central Texas again....with their eyes on the I-35 corridor later this evening/tonight.  The cell below near Mason is showing rotation, although it is entering the doppler radar "no mans land" between the San Angelo and San Antonio radar sites.  At this distance, the rotation that is seen by the radar is at about 9,000 feet (obviously well above ground level).  None-the-less, a rotating wall cloud has been reported by spotters in the last half hour.

Additional development is also likely to take place later this evening further to the West along an old outflow boundary/cool front through Southwest Texas.  All of this activity will then likely merge into another complex and roll East/Southeast across parts of southcentral Texas later tonight...

The SPC recently issued the following discussion on the setup as well:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0576.html

  

What a Week in "Tornado Alley"

The title says it all....wowzer!  Mother Nature didn't disappoint this week!

My "real job" has kept me too busy to post this week - but that doesn't mean that I didn't notice what was going on!  I've been archiving radar and other data and imagery throughout the week and plan to make some posts this weekend.

Meanwhile, Texans should keep abreast of the weather tonight through Sunday, as several rounds of severe weather and/or flooding are likely to impact large portions of the state.  Stay aware and stay safe!

Potential for Significant Severe Weather Outbreak on Monday - Update 1

Surface moisture is beginning to make a move Northward in earnest.  This trend should increase overnight and early Monday.    

2133Z (4:33pm CDT) surface map depicting rough boundary of 60s-70s

dewpoints advancing Northward through Texas

SPC 3-Hour Dewpoint Change ending 21Z today (4pm CDT).

Meanwhile, thunderstorms continue to develop across NW Texas into parts of western Oklahoma on the nose of the incoming moisture and in an area of increasing lift:

2152Z (4:52pm CDT) Radar Image from OKC

It remains to be seen what, if any, effect this or other overnight activity could potentially have on tomorrow's severe weather outbreak...stay tuned!

(See my earlier post below for a more detailed discussion of tomorrow's potential for severe weather in OK and KS).

Potential for Significant Severe Weather Outbreak on Monday

I hate to potentially mess things up by jumping on board the "hype" bandwagon that I'm seeing on the internet and some of the media, but I must agree that tomorrow sure looks to be a potentially big severe weather day in the classic "tornado alley" region of OK/KS.


I've seen several bloggers/tweeters compare the forecast synoptic situation for tomorrow afternoon to that of May 8, 2003, which produced a significant tornado in Oklahoma (the F4 event in Moore, to be specific).


I'll post some images below and let you be the judge...

Observed 500mb chart for 00Z on 5-9-03

NAM 500mb Forecast valid 00Z 5-11-10

Observed 850mb chart for 00Z on 5-9-03

NAM 850mb Forecast valid 00Z 5-11-10

Observed Surface chart for 00Z on 5-9-03

NAM Surface Forecast valid 00Z 5-11-10

If the above NAM model forecasts verify, many of the wind fields will be as strong or stronger than the 2003 event.  The images below compare the observed soundings & hodographs for Norman, OK from the May 8,2003 event to the forecast soundings & hodographs for tomorrow afternoon:

Observed OUN Sounding for 18z on 5-8-03

NAM Forecast Sounding for OUN valid 18Z 5-10-10

NAM Forecast Hodograph for OUN valid 18Z 5-10-10

Observed OUN Sounding for 00z on 5-9-03

NAM Forecast Sounding for OUN valid 00Z 5-11-10

NAM Forecast Hodograph for OUN valid 00Z 5-11-10

I think that some differences in the amount/depth of low level moisture and instability may be the most significant in comparing the 2003 event to what is forecast to unfold tomorrow.  In my opinion, the keys here will be (1). the amount of low level moisture return (and depth of that return) over the next 24 hours, and (2). how much low-level heating will be able to take place in the warm sector tomorrow afternoon.

If I had to put a "target area" down myself, I would match it very closely to the SPC's current Day 2 Moderate risk area:

If the NAM model forecasts verify for tomorrow afternoon, I would place the most significant tornado risk, at least initially, in a narrower corridor from near Oklahoma City to near Wichita, spreading East/Northeast with time during the evening.

Just for the heck of it, here is the point sounding & hodograph forecast for Wichita, KS for tomorrow afternoon:

NAM Forecast Sounding for ICT valid 00Z 5-11-10

NAM Forecast Hodograph for ICT valid 00Z 5-11-10

Needless to say, it will be very interesting to see how this situation unfolds tomorrow.  If you live in this area and are an "ordinary citizen", please keep abreast of the latest information and be prepared to take quick action if severe weather threatens your area.  If you live in this area and are a storm chaser, get that gas tank filled-up, the camera loaded and get ready to roll!  Best of luck and safety to all!

Deja Vu in Arkansas

The stage is setting up rapidly for another round of intense thunderstorm activity across AR and adjacent portions of LA/TX and MS/TN this evening.  All persons across this area should remain on high alert!

The "Weather Channel" Sinks to New Low

Like many severe weather enthusiasts, I watched the tornado outbreak unfolding across Arkansas and Missouri with great interest yesterday evening, particularly as tornadic cells began to move into increasingly populated areas such as parts of Little Rock and St. Louis. 

Storm Relative Velocity Image from LZK Radar shortly after 9pm CDT 4-30-10

While I had a clear understanding of what was going on via radar and other data, I naturally became curious at one point as to what coverage the Weather Channel was giving the event (heck, I thought they might even have Jim Cantore or another meteorologist on scene by this time).  You can imagine my utter disbelief as I dialed up the channel only to find Matthew Modine and Jennifer Grey locking lips on some kind of watercraft!  Thinking I surely pulled up the wrong channel, I tried again, even a 3rd time.  Nope, the cable box was pulling up "The Weather Channel" alright, but it seems that some dope in the programming department was unaware that he worked at the WEATHER channel last night (and during a severe/tornado outbreak none-the-less).  I guess I should give him some amount of credit - at least the title of the movie had something to do with the weather ("Wind").

I am skeptical of most broadcast media (particularly "mainstream") anyway, but in the past I had always grown accustomed to being able to turn on The Weather Channel and at least seeing something relating to the weather situation at hand (even if I had to wait through a commercial break or something like that).  I am still amazed at what I saw last night.  I can only conclude that "The Weather Channel" has for whatever reason decided to turn away from what I thought was its core mission - providing weather information (particularly during severe weather episodes).  Or, perhaps I've misunderstood that core mission all along...

One final note to The Weather Channel senior management:  I'd suggest changing the name of your network to more appropriately reflect your current philosophy:  "The B-Movie Channel with Occasional Weather".

Strong Tornadoes Possible in Already Hard-Hit Areas Again Today

Residents of Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and adjacent areas should be on high alert today for possible significant severe thunderstorms - including the possibility of strong tornadoes.  Much of this area will be upgraded to "high risk" on the 8am severe weather outlook from the SPC.  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0443.html