Center of Hermine Nearing Coast of Mexico

The above image was taken from the Brownsville, TX radar about 4 minutes ago.  The center of Hermine was located about 8 miles offshore of the Mexican coast...or about 40 miles South/Southeast of Brownsville.

With a movement toward the Northwest at 15 mph...the center of Hermine will make landfall on the Mexican coast about 30 miles South of Brownsville within the hour.

The first stronger bands of thunderstorm activity are currently moving into far South Texas (as you can also see in the image above), and a Tornado Watch has been issued until 5am for much of the Rio Grande and Texas Coastal Plains.

Double Rainbow - Compliments of Hermine

I shot the above images out my front door (near Kyle, TX) about 10 minutes ago.  If you look closely (particularly in the bottom image) you can see a faint secondary rainbow above the primary one.

So far we've only seen very isolated showers today, associated with the extreme outskirts of Hermine, but even a light shower can produce a beautiful site once in awhile.

Hermine Slightly Stronger on 7pm Update

The above radar image was taken from the Brownsville, TX radar about 5 minutes ago.  You can clearly see the center of Tropical Storm Hermine, which as of the 7pm National Hurricane Center advisory was located 80 miles South/Southeast of Brownsville.  Hermine is moving toward the Northwest to North/Northwest at 15 mph.  On this track, the center of Hermine is still expected to make landfall along the Mexican coast (to the South of Brownsville) later this evening.

The image below is from the same radar at the same time, except this time in "velocity" mode, which shows the strength and direction of wind blowing toward and away from the radar.  Red colors are showing winds blowing away from the radar, while green colors show winds blowing toward the radar.

The white circled area in the above image shows the center of Hermine on the velocity image.  At that distance from Brownsville, the radar beam is at about 5,500 feet above sea level near the center of the storm.  The radar was measuring winds of 72 mph near the brighter green area toward the right hand side of the white circle at the time this image was taken. (Again, remember this was at a level about 5,500 feet above sea level).

A dropsonde from a National Weather Service "hurricane hunter" aircraft measured sustained winds of 65 mph at sea level near the same location, so that is the wind speed that was used in the official 7pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center.  Hermine may still strengthen slightly before making landfall later tonight, but significant intensification is not likely since it is already nearing land.

For a more detailed analysis of the projected path of Hermine and the expected heavy rainfall impacts on Texas, see my earlier post here.

Center of Hermine Will Make Landfall South of Brownsville

The above radar image, from the Brownsville, TX radar, was taken just a couple of minutes ago.  You can clearly see the center of Tropical Storm Hermine spinning about 100 miles South/Southeast of Brownsville.  Hermine is moving North/Northwest at 15 mph.  This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with the center of Hermine likely to make landfall along the Mexico coast, somewhere between 25 and 50 miles South of Brownsville, later this evening.

Maximum sustained winds continue near 60 mph, with some higher gusts.  Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center of Hermine.  The center of Hermine is approaching land rather quickly, which would tend to limit any dramatic intensification, however it is still possible that the system could strengthen a bit more before making landfall.

Tropical Storm warnings remain in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor in Texas.  A Hurricane Watch remains in effect as far North as Baffin Bay in Texas.

As we've been talking about for the last 3 days, the main story for Texas will be widespread, heavy rainfall.  We're not just referring to the coastal areas near landfall, but well up into Texas as well.  Below is the latest rainfall forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.  As you can see, widespread amounts of 2-4 inches are forecast for much of Texas, northward into Oklahoma.  A large area of 6-8 inches is forecast from far South Texas into parts of central Texas.

While the above rains will be beneficial for much of the region, there is a pronounced threat for flooding and flash flooding as well, particularly for the Rio Grande Valley into parts of southcentral Texas.  In the image below, the red, hatched area in Texas has a "high chance" of flash flooding with rainfall totals in excess of 5 inches likely. 

T.S. Hermine as Seen with Some Nifty Software

The above radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine was taken at 10:50 CDT this morning, from the Brownsville, TX radar.  To orient you with the map, the light blue lettering "KBRO" (located near the center of the image) shows the location of the Brownsville, TX radar site.  The light blue lettering "KEWX" near the top center of the image shows the location of the New Braunfels, TX radar site (which is between San Antonio and Austin).

The dark red track line shows the current and forecast positions of Hermine over the next 48 hours (each point is roughly a 12 hour forecast position).  The lighter pink lines were the track forecasts from the previous two advisories, so you can see how the track has been adjusted (which thus far has been further Eastward with the last 2 advisories).

The airplane symbols East of the storm in the Gulf of Mexico show the hurricane hunter aircraft that is heading in to evaluate the storm as we speak.

The above images were generated by a software program called GRLevel2, which you can get here (including a free trial download).  The additional data plots (storm tracks, airplane data, etc.) are generated by AllisonHouse, a data provider, which you can access here.  (Please note, I am not affiliated with GRLevel2 nor AllisonHouse in any way, I just love their products!)

For more details on Hermine, including a forecast of the greatest expected impact on Texas, see my earlier post here.

Texas Rainmaker Has a Name: Hermine

As we've been blogging for the past few days, a disturbance over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico / Bay of Campeche holds a promise of significant rainfall for much of Texas this week.  That system organized and strengthened overnight to Tropical Storm Hermine.


At 9am CDT...the center of Hermine was located about 205 miles South/Southeast of Brownsville, TX.   Hermine was moving North/Northwest at 13 mph.  A Tropical Storm warning has been issued for part of the far South Texas Coast, from the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay.


The center of Hermine is forecast to make landfall just South of the Texas border with Mexico border late tonight / early Tuesday morning.

As we've said all along, the big story with Hermine will be rainfall.  The image below is the forecast rainfall from 7am Monday through 7am Thursday in association with Hermine.

As you can see, widespread 1-3 inch rains are forecast for a large part of Texas.  A large swath of 3-6 inch rains are forecast near and East of the expected track of the center, for much of south-central into central and northwest Texas.

More on Recent Oklahoma Tremblers

My post yesterday regarding a 3.3 magnitude (which is an update to the originally reported magnitude of 3.1) earthquake in central Oklahoma has generated several e-mails inquiring about the recent seismic activity in the Sooner state.

The above map shows the locations of earthquakes over the past week (in yellow) and month (in light blue). The 2 red squares show the quakes that took place on Saturday.  As you can see, the bulk of this activity has been centered in an area near Jones, which is about 20-25 miles East/Northeast of Oklahoma City (in the lower left corner of the map), to the North of Highway 62 and South of I-44.

The Oklahoma Geological Survey has dubbed the recent activity the "Jones seismicity".  This uptick in activity actually began in 2009, with 27 quakes were reported in the area (before 2009 a total of only 7 earthquakes had ever been reported in this area).  The strongest so far took place on January 15 2010, when two quakes, one a magnitude 3.8 and the other a magnitude 3.7 took place within 9 minutes of one another, again near Jones.

  

In Oklahoma, "minor" earthquakes are often caused by oil drilling/excavating activities.  The activity near Jones, however, is not consistent with this trend because of the lack of drilling and excavation in the area.  Instead, it is more likely to be associated with truly natural seismic activity that, for some reason, has been increasing in the region for the past year.

For more information on Oklahoma earthquakes, including the examination of increased activity near Jones, here is an excellent website from the Oklahoma Geological Survey in Leonard.