Monday, September 6, 2010

Center of Hermine Will Make Landfall South of Brownsville

The above radar image, from the Brownsville, TX radar, was taken just a couple of minutes ago.  You can clearly see the center of Tropical Storm Hermine spinning about 100 miles South/Southeast of Brownsville.  Hermine is moving North/Northwest at 15 mph.  This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with the center of Hermine likely to make landfall along the Mexico coast, somewhere between 25 and 50 miles South of Brownsville, later this evening.

Maximum sustained winds continue near 60 mph, with some higher gusts.  Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center of Hermine.  The center of Hermine is approaching land rather quickly, which would tend to limit any dramatic intensification, however it is still possible that the system could strengthen a bit more before making landfall.

Tropical Storm warnings remain in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor in Texas.  A Hurricane Watch remains in effect as far North as Baffin Bay in Texas.

As we've been talking about for the last 3 days, the main story for Texas will be widespread, heavy rainfall.  We're not just referring to the coastal areas near landfall, but well up into Texas as well.  Below is the latest rainfall forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.  As you can see, widespread amounts of 2-4 inches are forecast for much of Texas, northward into Oklahoma.  A large area of 6-8 inches is forecast from far South Texas into parts of central Texas.

While the above rains will be beneficial for much of the region, there is a pronounced threat for flooding and flash flooding as well, particularly for the Rio Grande Valley into parts of southcentral Texas.  In the image below, the red, hatched area in Texas has a "high chance" of flash flooding with rainfall totals in excess of 5 inches likely. 

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