Trend Toward Wetter, Cooler Weather A Sign of Things to Come for the South This Fall...

Another cold front is making its way to the south across the northern U.S. this morning, and will bring widespread rain and cooler conditions to much of the central and southern Plains through Saturday.

The image above shows the HPC forecast total precipitation for today through Sunday.  Most of the precipitation will fall during the period Thursday through Saturday, and you can see that 1-2 inch amounts are forecast across a widespread area from Texas into  parts of Oklahoma and Louisiana.  Much needed rain that will be spread out over a 24-36 hour period in most areas.

Temperatures behind the front will be pleasantly cool for this time of year, with readings forecast to average as many as 25-30 degrees below normal across portions of southwest Kansas, western Oklahoma and the Texas / Oklahoma panhandle region on Friday:

The core of below normal temperatures will shift Southward by Saturday, with readings forecast to average as much as 15-20 degrees below normal across portions of Texas by that time:

Another, perhaps even more significant, cooldown appears to be in the offing for next week.  The latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is calling for a core of below normal temperatures, this time centered over the Midwest and Great Lakes, southward into the Mississippi Valley region for the period September 19th-25th:

I believe that residents of the southern tier of the U.S. should get used to relatively frequent periods of wet, cool weather as we head deeper into the fall and winter months.  This is because conditions indicate that an El Nino pattern is developing in the Pacific Ocean, and such a pattern typically leads to wetter than normal conditions across the southern tier of states during the fall and winter:

This will be good news for many severely dry areas across the South, and should drastically improve (if not eliminate in some areas) drought conditions as we head into the spring planting and growing seasons.

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The Tornado Chronicles: Breezy Point, Coney Island, NYC, Brooklyn Tornadoes of 9-8-12...

At least two tornadoes, the first beginning as a waterspout off of Coney Island, struck the Brooklyn area of southeast New York City on Saturday morning, September 8th.

Here is the first picture that came in from Coney Island near the New York Aquarium (taken by Charlie Hoxie, via twitter).  The vortex could have been a waterspout at this point, but that is not completely clear:

...and here is another perspective, also from Coney Island (photographer unknown, via twitter):

A video was posted on YouTube, reportedly from Breezy Point, which is very near the same area as above (video by Roy Currlin via YouTube).  You can clearly see damage being done at about 2:35 into the video:

Here is another video from Breezy Point, from the "don't try this at home" department (they are way too close to the tornado, but the video is spectacular).  WARNING:  bad language right off the top and again toward the end:

The National Weather Service (NWS) in New York City has completed a survey of the Breezy Point tornado and rated it EF-0, with maximum winds estimated at 70 mph.  The survey indicates that the tornado began as a waterspout at the New York Harbor entrance and then moved onshore at the Breezy Point Surf Club.  It was on the ground for approximately 200 yards before lifting near Rockaway Inlet.

Photos then started coming in from the Brooklyn area itself, first along Flatbush Avenue near the King's Plaza Shopping Center (photographer unknown, via twitter):

The following video appears to have been taken near the same time that the above photo near Kings Plaza.  Warning - bad language:

...and this one shows the tornado as it crossed Port Gerritsen Beach, which is between Kings Plaza and the JFK Airport:

A photo then emerged along the Belt Parkway heading toward JFK Airport (taken by Zack Rosenthal, via twitter):

Here is a video from the same vicinity:

The NWS has completed the damage survey of the Brooklyn tornado, and rated it EF-1 intensity, with maximum winds estimated at 110 mph.  I am working on some damage photos and videos and will post those soon.

So far, most of the damage reports have consisted of trees and power lines down, limbs down, etc.  Based on that video near Breezy Point, it seems that some structural damage was likely in that area.  I'll be watching for further information as it comes forward.

This post will be updated throughout the day and weekend as additional photos, video and information becomes available, so if you have an interest in this event, please bookmark the post and check back from time to time...

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Update on Northeast Severe Weather Threat Today...

A significant outbreak of severe weather still appears likely on a regional scale today, across portions of the Northeast U.S. and New England.  Above is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK.  Severe storms are forecast within the yellow shaded area on the image, with a risk for more widespread severe weather within the red shaded area on the same image.

The highest threat today will be that of very damaging straight line wind gusts.  The potential exists for winds in excess of 70-80 mph with the most severe storms, which could take place on a relatively widespread basis within the red, lavender and black hatched area on the image below:

This pronounced threat of potentially significant wind damage includes the cities of Raleigh, Baltimore/Washington, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston.

If you live or have travel plans in this region today, please take all warnings seriously.  Some folks have a tendency to place less emphasis on a Severe Thunderstorm Warning than they do a Tornado Warning.  While there may be some situations where that can generally be done safely, today is not one of them.  With severe storms potentially producing wind gusts in excess of hurricane force on a widespread basis today, all severe thunderstorm warnings should be taken seriously.  I strongly advise that you take the same precautions for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning today that you would normally take for a Tornado Warning, especially if you live within the red, lavender and black hatched area on the above image.  If you'd like to review those safety and sheltering tips, please see this post.

Unfortunately, we saw a scenario play out in Oklahoma yesterday where two grandparents and their grandbaby were killed as a result of damaging straight line wind gusts.  Please take this situation seriously today, as similar damage is likely to take place on an even larger scale, and potentially in very heavily populated areas.

With the above said, there will also be a threat of at least a few tornadoes today, especially within the yellow and brown shaded areas on the image below:

Tornadoes are most likely today under two scenarios:  (1). brief, but still potentially damaging, tornadoes that form underneath a rotating storm within a bow echo or other damaging wind producing thunderstorm configuration, and (2). with any storm that is able to remain isolated and become well organized ahead of the main line (or lines) of thunderstorms that will develop.

Large hail will also be possible with severe storms across the entire severe weather outlook area for today.

If you live across the severe weather threat areas for today, please remain alert and listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information, watches and possible warnings.

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Widespread, Significant Severe Weather Possible in the Northeast on Saturday...

I made a post on my facebook page at midday today remarking about the possibility of a widespread, significant severe weather event tomorrow afternoon and evening across the Northeast.  I promised a full update here on the blog, and really little has changed since that post.

Above is the outlook for tomorrow from the SPC in Norman, OK.  While severe storms are possible anywhere within the yellow, red and lavender shaded areas, the highest risk of severe storms lies within the red, lavender and black hatched area.  This includes the cities of New York City, Philly, Boston, Baltimore/Washington and Atlantic City.

Widespread, potentially significant wind damage is the greatest threat, along with large hail.  A few tornadoes are also possible, particularly with any isolated storms that form ahead of the main line(s).

If you live across this region, please be on the alert on Saturday.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, your local media or another trusted source for the latest information and possible warnings.  Be sure to identify your best sheltering option ahead of time so that you can move there quickly in case of threatening weather.

This will be one of those situations where straight line wind damage could be as significant as with a moderate or even strong tornado.  Please don't take the Severe Thunderstorm Warnings lightly tomorrow, as winds in excess of 70 or 80 mph will be possible, particularly in and near the red, lavender and black hatched areas on the above image.

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Wild Oklahoma Weather...As Usual...

A strong cold front is blasting across the Sooner state at this hour, producing wind gusts of 51 mph at the Tulsa International airport and spreading a wall of dust across the city (photo via twitter, by Pat Baldwin):

The temperature contrast is also impressive as depicted by this recent screen shot of the Oklahoma Mesonet reporting stations:

The range runs from 66 degrees at Blackwell (and now Newkirk) to 107 degrees at Waurika and Ringling!

Unfortunately, the strong, gusty winds are causing a high wildfire danger, and at least one large grassfire is reportedly underway in the Sperry area at this time.

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Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Risk for Midwest/OH Valley Later Today...

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for this afternoon and evening from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK.  Severe storms are forecast within the yellow shaded area on the image, most of which will occur along and ahead of a cold front that will continue moving through the region.

Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible with severe storms across the risk area today and at least early tonight.  The greatest chance for tornadoes will take place within the green and brown shaded areas on  the image below, which includes the cities of Indianapolis, Ft. Wayne, Detroit, St. Louis, Evansville, Louisville, Columbus and Cincinnati:

The highest chance of a tornado will take place in association with any thunderstorm that is able to remain relatively isolated and become well organized.  Damaging straight line wind gusts will be a pronounced threat, particularly within the red shaded area on the image below (which covers much the same area as the highest tornado threat):

If you live across this region, please remain alert this afternoon and evening.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information and possible warnings.  Be sure to take a few minutes early in the day to identify your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

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Update on "Isaac II / Nadine Wannabe" in the Gulf...

In a post yesterday, I remarked that thunderstorm activity in association with part of the remnants of Isaac in the northern Gulf of Mexico continued to remain well away from the center of circulation.  That trend has continued since then, and continues to hamper the development of the system overall.

The system will be overtaken by a cold front on Saturday and pushed East, bringing an increased threat of rain to portions of an already drenched northern Florida.  Other than that - and some rough surf along the northcentral and northeast Gulf Coast today and Saturday, I expect the affects of this system to be minimal.

With the above in mind, I think the name "Nadine" will be reserved for the next system, which has yet to form somewhere in the Atlantic.

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