Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Another Major Pattern Change in the Offing?

The computer forecast models have been hinting at a major pattern shift for the first part of next week, including the possibility of a major cold outbreak for much of the central third of the nation later in the week.  The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) picked-up on this over the weekend, and reiterated it in their latest outlook issued today:

In case you're unfamiliar with how to read the above chart, it is showing "anomalies" or departure from "normal" temperature conditions.  The valid period is November 15th-19th.  As you can see, the CPC is forecasting a 70% chance of below normal temperatures in the darkest blue region, and a 60% and 50% chance in the correspondingly less dark blue regions.

The computer models continue to show cooler conditions spreading Southward through the Nation beginning this weekend, with increasingly stronger "bursts" of cold air well into next week. 

Below is the latest surface weather map (as forecast by the HPC) for Tuesday morning, November 16th:  

As you can see, the first cold front is shown entering the Gulf Coast region, with another, stronger front entering the Northwest (with yet another depicted surging Southward over central Canada).

There are several other scenarios that could unfold next week, but I'm going to sit back and see how the computer model forecasts evolve over the next few days before posting more detailed information...

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