Friday, August 3, 2012

Fairly Widespread Severe Weather Threat Will Progress West-East Across Northern U.S. This Weekend...

A strong disturbance in the middle and upper atmosphere will move from West/Northwest to East/Southeast across an area extending from the Northern Plains through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast over the weekend.  A threat of severe thunderstorms will accompany this system.

First, for today, severe weather will be possible within the yellow shaded area on the image below:

Large hail, damaging wind gusts and even a few tornadoes will be possible with severe storms in this general area mainly this afternoon and into this evening.  Within this area, there will be a pronounced threat for large to very large hail within the red shaded and black hatched areas on the following image:

The threat for severe weather will shift East on Saturday, residing mainly within the yellow shaded area on the image below by the afternoon and evening hours:

Once again, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, with a few tornadoes possible in some of the more isolated, well organized storms that are able to develop during the late afternoon and early evening hours.  The highest risk of severe weather will reside within the red shaded area on the following image, which includes the cities of Chicago, Peoria, Green Bay and Milwaukee:

The threat of severe weather will move into the Northeast and parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions by Sunday afternoon and evening, as noted by the yellow shaded area on the image below:

Within this area, the most pronounced threat of severe storms is expected within the red shaded area on the image below, which includes the cities of Pittsburgh, Scranton, Buffalo, Rochester, Utica and Burlington (VT):

It appears that by Sunday the primary severe weather threat will be that of wind damage, with some large hail also possible.  Although a few tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out, that does not appear to be the primary threat on Sunday.

If you live across the areas that are to be affected by severe weather today through Sunday, please remain alert.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for later information and possible warnings.  Take the time now to review severe weather safety tips and be prepared to seek shelter immediately if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

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