Tropics Slowly Coming Alive - No Land Threatened As Of Yet...

There are 4 active Tropical Waves out in the Atlantic as of this morning (within the yellow circled areas on the satellite image above).

The northern-most wave is moving Northeastward, out to Sea, so I'm really not too concerned about that one.  Similarly, the center 2 waves are forecast to turn toward the North and then Northeast and are not likely to become a threat to populated areas (except perhaps Bermuda early next week - I'll be more specific in later posts if a significant threat develops for Bermuda).  

The Southern-most disturbance will need to be watched closely over the next 5 days as it is forecast to continue moving Westward.  The latest computer forecast model projections for this system are shown below (yellow circled area shows the current location of that particular system):

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Tropical Wave About to Become a Depression...or Tropical Storm Don

The strong Tropical Wave that we've been talking about over the Northwest Caribbean for the past few days continues to become better organized today.  According to satellite (above) and radar imagery (below), it appears that a closed circulation may be developing, which would likely boost the system up to at least Tropical Depression status later today.  A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit the system this afternoon and take more detailed measurements.  If it finds sufficient wind speeds, the system might be bumped immediately up to Tropical Storm status, in which case the system would be called "Don."

Computer forecast models continue to suggest this system will move toward the Texas coast by early this weekend:

Residents all along the northern Mexico and Texas coasts should monitor the progression of this system over the coming few days.  

We should have a much better handle on how the system is likely to evolve (including the intensity forecast) once the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data are absorbed into the computer forecast models tonight and Thursday morning.

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