Typhoon Ma-on Nearing Japan

The bad news is in the headline.... but the good news is that Ma-on has weakened considerably since this time yesterday. Maximum sustained winds are currently estimated at 85 mph, with gusts to 105 mph.  Ma-on is moving Northward at 13 mph, and a turn toward the North/Northeast is expected later tonight.

Heavy rains and gusty winds are already impacting Japan, and based on the system's current track, the stronger winds near the center of Ma-on will begin to impact the region later tonight and into Tuesday.

Based on the above forecast track, it appears that the Kochi and Tokushima Prefectures will take the hardest hit early on, with sustained winds of 75-95 mph and gusts up to 115 mph possible, along with very heavy rain and high incoming wave action.

The system is forecast to maintain its current intensity before turning East and heading back out to sea after it passes through the Wakayama and Nara Prefectures on Wednesday.

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Typhoon Ma-on Advancing Toward Japan

Typhoon Ma-on continues to advance toward the island of Japan.  At 9pm Japan Standard Time (JST), the center of Ma-on was located near 25.2 North Latitude / 133.8 East Longitude, and was moving Northwest at 13 mph.  Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 115 mph, with gusts to 145 mph.

Ma-on is forecast to continue Northwest to North/Northwestward today and Monday, then turn more toward the North to Northeast late Monday into Tuesday:

This will bring the threat of Typhoon conditions to the heart of the island from Tuesday into Wednesday.  At that time, the system is forecast to have sustained winds of 110-130 mph.  Very heavy rains and dangerous storm surge will also be likely.

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Typhoon Ma-on Continues to Organize... Will Threaten Japan

The above satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on shows a well defined eye centered at about latitude 21.8 North / Longitude 137.1 East, as of 9pm Japan Standard Time (JST).  Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 125 mph, with gusts to 155 mph.  During the last 12 hours, Ma-on has taken a Northwestward turn (as expected) and is moving at 11 mph.

The system is forecast to continue Northwestward today and Sunday, then take a more Northward track on Monday, as shown below:

If the above track verifies (and consistency among the computer models and other data has remained high, so I am confident in the above forecast), then the island of Japan will be threatened as early as Tuesday.  If we zoom-in on the above forecast track, you can see the potential impact on various locations in Japan on the image below:

The last 4 forecast positions shown in the zoomed-in image correspond to 9pm Monday, 9am Tuesday, 9am Wednesday and 9am Thursday, respectively (all JST).

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Typhoon Ma-on Forecast to Threaten Japan

Typhoon Ma-on continues to gain strength out in the Pacific, and is forecast to assume a path that will threaten Japan next week. The above satellite image shows that an increasingly well defined eye has been developing during the last few hours.

At 9pm Japan Standard Time (JST), the center of Ma-on was located near latitude 20.6 North / longitude 140.4 East, and was moving West at 11mph.  Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 130 mph.

Ma-on is forecast to assume a more Northwesterly track over the weekend, then turn Northward toward Japan by early Monday.  Current computer models suggest the system will impact the island as early as Tuesday:

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