Saturday, July 16, 2011

Typhoon Ma-on Continues to Organize... Will Threaten Japan

The above satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on shows a well defined eye centered at about latitude 21.8 North / Longitude 137.1 East, as of 9pm Japan Standard Time (JST).  Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 125 mph, with gusts to 155 mph.  During the last 12 hours, Ma-on has taken a Northwestward turn (as expected) and is moving at 11 mph.

The system is forecast to continue Northwestward today and Sunday, then take a more Northward track on Monday, as shown below:

If the above track verifies (and consistency among the computer models and other data has remained high, so I am confident in the above forecast), then the island of Japan will be threatened as early as Tuesday.  If we zoom-in on the above forecast track, you can see the potential impact on various locations in Japan on the image below:

The last 4 forecast positions shown in the zoomed-in image correspond to 9pm Monday, 9am Tuesday, 9am Wednesday and 9am Thursday, respectively (all JST).

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