Monday, July 25, 2011

More Heavy Rain to Aggravate Flooding in Northern Plains / Midwest...

Widespread flooding continues across much of the Missouri River Basin, as indicated by the red shaded areas on the above image.

Scattered thunderstorms and overnight thunderstorm complexes have generally remained in the further reaches (Northward and Eastward) of the basin for the past week to 10 days.  That trend is about to change.  Unfortunately, computer forecast models indicate that the high pressure ridge that has been carrying the heaviest precipitation generally in Northern portions of this region (or Canada) for much of the past week to 10 days will gradually break down toward the end of July and first 10 days of August, which will result in heavier, more widespread rains spreading back Southward into much of the region.

Below is the precipitation outlook for the period July 31st through August 4th:

...and August 2nd through 8th:

The green shaded areas on each image indicate where there is an "Above Normal" likelihood of rainfall during the indicated time periods.  (The darkest green shading indicates the highest probability of an above normal rainfall trend).

On the other side of the coin, you can also see that drought conditions are unfortunately likely to persist across much of the South, as indicated by the brown "Below Normal" rainfall forecast during the same time periods.  As I have maintained for the past couple of months, the best chance for a drought breaker in Texas or adjacent portions of the South will come in the form of an organized tropical system.  I'm afraid that is just going to be an unfortunate fact of life this summer and early fall across this drought stricken region...

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