Major Flooding Continues Across the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast...

Major flooding continues across the Alabama and Florida Panhandle region of the Gulf Coast. The above image was taken in Pensacola, FL yesterday afternoon.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 feet have been common across the region since early Saturday.  The Pensacola airport recorded 13.13 inches, and a cooperative station Southwest of the city reported 21.70 inches of rain.  The Mobile, AL airport recorded nearly 7 inches of rain:

Below is a "Storify" thread that we put together for our Top Story page on our sister site, WeatherGuidance.com.  We will be updating it throughout this event:

For complete coverage throughout the day and Monday, including real time radar imagery, rainfall totals, etc., please visit the dedicated page on WeatherGuidance.com.  

For more information, including "live blogging" during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and/or twitter:

 

Update on Texas Rainfall Totals This Week...

On Wednesday I remarked as to the fact that additional, widespread heavy rainfall was likely across a good part of Texas for the end of the week.  Below is a map depicting total rainfall through yesterday:

As you can see by examining the scale on the right, widespread amounts of 5-10 inches were common over southcentral, central and westcentral parts of the state.  

All of that heavy rain is flowing downstream, with 10 river gauges near flood stage (as shown by yellow circles or squares) over southeast Texas this morning:

In addition to heavy rains upstream causing rises at the local level, strong to severe storms in the Houston Metro area yesterday evening also caused rapid rises on local creeks and streams.  The graph below shows a 10 foot rise on Clear Creek near Friendswood: 

Creeks and streams across central and eastern Texas should level-off today, as there are no additional heavy rains forecast overhead or upstream today through Sunday.

For more information, including "live blogging" during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and/or twitter:

 

Meanwhile, Out in the Warm Sector, the Rain Continues...

The large storm system affecting the Rockies and Plains is about more than just winter weather. As we've been talking about for several days now, widespread rain, some heavy, will take place in the "warm sector" of the storm over the next few days.  (The warm sector describes the area that will remain above freezing, with precipitation forecast to fall entirely in the form of rain).

The latest 5 day rainfall forecast from the HPC is shown below:

As you can see, a large area of 3-6 inch rainfall continues to be forecast from extreme northeast Texas across central and eastern Arkansas and on into the mid-Mississippi valley region.  Locally higher amounts in excess of 6 inches are possible, particularly across the brighter orange shaded area.

Here is how the daily rainfall forecast looks for each of the next 5 days:

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday-Wednesday

While the rain is good news for drought stricken areas, the heaviest of the precipitation (as is typical with the type of pattern that we're in this winter) will fall across areas that do not really need it.  Flood and Flash Flood Watches (an in some cases, warnings) are already in effect across portions of this region:

In addition, river flooding is already in progress or forecast for many areas:

...and I would expect additional watches and warnings related to flooding and flash flooding to be issued over the course of the next few days...

Remember, never drive across a roadway that is covered in water - no matter how shallow the water appears to be.  Flash flooding can be especially dangerous at night, so use extreme caution if nighttime travel is required in a flood or flash flood watch area.

If you enjoy reading 'The Original Weather Blog', please be sure to "like" our facebook page!

More Heavy Rain to Aggravate Flooding in Northern Plains / Midwest...

Widespread flooding continues across much of the Missouri River Basin, as indicated by the red shaded areas on the above image.

Scattered thunderstorms and overnight thunderstorm complexes have generally remained in the further reaches (Northward and Eastward) of the basin for the past week to 10 days.  That trend is about to change.  Unfortunately, computer forecast models indicate that the high pressure ridge that has been carrying the heaviest precipitation generally in Northern portions of this region (or Canada) for much of the past week to 10 days will gradually break down toward the end of July and first 10 days of August, which will result in heavier, more widespread rains spreading back Southward into much of the region.

Below is the precipitation outlook for the period July 31st through August 4th:

...and August 2nd through 8th:

The green shaded areas on each image indicate where there is an "Above Normal" likelihood of rainfall during the indicated time periods.  (The darkest green shading indicates the highest probability of an above normal rainfall trend).

On the other side of the coin, you can also see that drought conditions are unfortunately likely to persist across much of the South, as indicated by the brown "Below Normal" rainfall forecast during the same time periods.  As I have maintained for the past couple of months, the best chance for a drought breaker in Texas or adjacent portions of the South will come in the form of an organized tropical system.  I'm afraid that is just going to be an unfortunate fact of life this summer and early fall across this drought stricken region...

If you enjoy reading 'The Original Weather Blog', please be sure to "like" our facebook page!