Saturday, December 3, 2011

Meanwhile, Out in the Warm Sector, the Rain Continues...

The large storm system affecting the Rockies and Plains is about more than just winter weather. As we've been talking about for several days now, widespread rain, some heavy, will take place in the "warm sector" of the storm over the next few days.  (The warm sector describes the area that will remain above freezing, with precipitation forecast to fall entirely in the form of rain).

The latest 5 day rainfall forecast from the HPC is shown below:

As you can see, a large area of 3-6 inch rainfall continues to be forecast from extreme northeast Texas across central and eastern Arkansas and on into the mid-Mississippi valley region.  Locally higher amounts in excess of 6 inches are possible, particularly across the brighter orange shaded area.

Here is how the daily rainfall forecast looks for each of the next 5 days:





While the rain is good news for drought stricken areas, the heaviest of the precipitation (as is typical with the type of pattern that we're in this winter) will fall across areas that do not really need it.  Flood and Flash Flood Watches (an in some cases, warnings) are already in effect across portions of this region:

In addition, river flooding is already in progress or forecast for many areas:

...and I would expect additional watches and warnings related to flooding and flash flooding to be issued over the course of the next few days...

Remember, never drive across a roadway that is covered in water - no matter how shallow the water appears to be.  Flash flooding can be especially dangerous at night, so use extreme caution if nighttime travel is required in a flood or flash flood watch area.

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