Thursday, December 15, 2011

Strong Storm System to Affect Southern Plains Early Next Week...

As alluded to in a post earlier this evening, a major weather maker is taking shape for the central and southern Plains on Monday.

The image below shows the surface weather map as forecast by the GFS computer model, valid at 4pm CST on Monday:

As you can see, a strong low pressure center is forecast to be located over southwestern Oklahoma at that time, with widespread precipitation taking place along and East/Northeast of the center, covering much of Oklahoma.

Meanwhile, in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere, a very strong disturbance is also forecast to be lifting across the region at the same time:

The combination of the strong surface low and cold front, as well as the potent middle and upper-level disturbance will result in very heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms across much of Oklahoma, western Arkansas and far northern Texas.  

Widespread rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches are possible, mainly on Monday, as indicated by the latest HPC rainfall forecast below:

At the moment, it appears that the low-levels of the atmosphere will be too cool to support severe weather, yet too warm to support widespread ice or snow.  We will need to monitor northwestern Oklahoma for the possibility of a changeover to wintry precipitation on Monday night, and if temperatures are able to warm enough over southeast Oklahoma or northern Texas during the day Monday, a severe weather threat may develop in that region.

Regardless of how the two "extremities" of this system unfold, there's a whole lot of rain, chilly air and strong, gusty winds to be had in between on Monday.

Stay tuned for more details on this developing situation...

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