Saturday, December 3, 2011

Update on Winter Weather Event #1 - Verifying the HRRR Model From Earlier...

Snow continues to spread Northeast across Nebraska, northwest Iowa and is now increasing across southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin at this hour.

In a post earlier this morning, I showed you the HRRR computer forecast model's representation of snow accumulation by 6pm CST this evening.  I have re-posted the same image below, but have added some recent accumulation reports that have come in from northwest Kansas and Nebraska:

As you can see, the model has performed quite well so far.  The intensity of the snow is tapering-off over northwestern Kansas at this time, but we still have a ways to go across Nebraska, so some of those heavier accumulation forecasts of 8-10 inches are still in the running.

The latest run of the same model is forecasting widespread 4-6 inch snows, with local amounts near 8 inches along the Iowa/Nebraska border and on into northwestern Iowa this evening.  The image below is valid 6pm CST:

...and this one is valid at 12 Midnight CST:

In case you were wondering.... no, I haven't forgotten about Winter Weather Event #2 for Oklahoma and surrounding areas coming up for Monday.  I'm continuing to evaluate the morning and midday data and will have a full post on this upcoming event later this afternoon...

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