Friday, December 2, 2011

Winter Weather Event #2 Taking Aim on Oklahoma for Early Next Week...

In a post earlier today, I remarked that a large upper level low pressure system over the Southwest U.S. will come out across the southern Rockies and into the Plains in pieces over the next several days, rather than all at one time.  Please refer to that post (link in 1st sentence above) and the image below for details on this weekend's activity:

This purpose of this post is to alert folks of the next big piece of energy that is forecast to emerge out into the Plains on Monday.  It appears that this particular disturbance will affect areas much further South, as far as winter weather conditions are concerned:

There is no question but that widespread snow will take place in a swath from New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle and across much of Oklahoma and southeast Kansas on Monday and/or Monday night.  The real question right now is how much snow will fall and exactly where will the heaviest snow occur???

The computer forecast models are currently in full fledged "battle mode", with the GFS model suggesting 4-6 inches of snow only across west-central Oklahoma (scale in inches at the bottom of the image):

...while the NAM model is suggesting as much as a foot of snow will take place across a large portion of central and northern Oklahoma, as indicated by the darker red areas on the image below:

The SREF model generally lies in between the other two models, both with respect to the location of the heavier snow and the magnitude.  The image below from that model is valid 6pm CST on Monday (scale in inches of snow accumulation at the bottom left side of the image):

While many uncertainties still remain at this hour, I believe that the SREF model is currently trending toward the best solution (as far as snow accumulation is concerned) for Monday and Monday night.  The exact axis of where the heaviest snow will fall is still in question, and could fluctuate 50-75 miles in either direction from what is currently depicted on the image above.

We will be able to tell a lot more about how this situation is likely to unfold as early as tomorrow, and even more so on Sunday.  Folks across this region should closely monitor this developing weather situation and stay tuned for updates...

If you live in that part of Oklahoma and northwest Texas that will not be affected by winter weather on Saturday and Sunday, I would suggest taking that time to gather some supplies, stock up on a few extra groceries, batteries, etc., that way you are prepared for the possibility of significant winter weather on Monday and/or Tuesday...

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