Friday, December 2, 2011

Update on the "Rainy Side" of the Winter Storm System...

Rain will develop and increase across the southern Plains, Deep South, middle Mississippi Valley and Tennesee Valley region in association with the strong surface cold front and upper-level low pressure system that we've been talking about for the past several days.

Light showers are already breaking out in central Texas this morning and will increase in areal coverage and intensity over the weekend:

The latest 5 day rainfall forecast from the HPC is shown below:

...which is in very close agreement with the GFS computer model forecast for the same time period:

As you can see, widespread heavy rainfall of 4-6 inches, with locally heavier amounts, are forecast across a swath extending from northeast Texas across Arkansas and into the middle Mississippi Valley region.

Here is how the rainfall is forecast to break-out by day:





While it is certainly good news to see additional rains across Texas, for example, the severe drought continues.  As has been the case so far this fall and winter, the heaviest of the rain will take place outside of the most severely drought stricken regions (with the exception of far northeast Texas) as you can see on the map below:

Unfortunately, this trend is likely to continue under the La Nina type pattern that we're in...but at least we can hopefully get some periods of even light to moderate rain from time to time to prevent the drought from becoming even worse than it already is.

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