The latest in a series of upper-level disturbances is set to move out over the southern Plains tonight and into early Thursday.
It appears that there will be enough low-level moisture in place across southcentral and southeast Texas for a few strong thunderstorms to develop during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, into Thursday morning as this disturbance moves through. Some of the stronger storms may produce hail around one-half inch in diameter, thanks to a layer of cold air just above the surface.
The most likely time for this to take place for southcentral Texas, including the Austin/San Antonio corridor along I-35, would be between Midnight and 6am CST Thursday. The threat will then shift Eastward into the Houston and southeast Texas area during the 6am to 12 Noon CST time period on Thursday.
More beneficial rain will also come about as a result of this system. The latest rainfall forecast from the HPC is shown below:
Please note that the vast majority of the rain shown in Texas on the above image will take place after Midnight tonight, into Thursday morning.
Another disturbance will fall in line behind this one, bringing heavy snow to the southern Rockies on Thursday and into Friday, and possibly some wintery weather into the adjacent Plains as well. I'll have a more detailed post on this disturbance later today...
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