Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Tropical Storm Don Promises Much Needed Rain for Texas...

We're still 24-36 hours out from knowing exactly where Tropical Storm Don is likely to make landfall along the Texas coast early this weekend (likely as a high-end Tropical Storm or low-end Hurricane), but one thing is clear:  things are looking "up" for parts of the Lone Star state when it comes to rainfall!


Take a look at the latest satellite image of Don below:



As you can see, most of the widespread, heavier rainfall is taking place to the "right" of the center, as noted by the white circled area on the same image below:


This is normal for a tropical system.  If we take the latest computer forecast model guidance, shown below, you can see that the current "consensus" of the models is to bring the center of the storm onshore somewhere between Corpus Christi and Port O'Connor early on Saturday morning:


If we assume that the "envelope" of the most widespread, heavy rain remains the same relative to the center of the storm (and it may in fact enlarge prior to the system making landfall - hopefully), then we can assume that the area within the bright green colored line on the image below stands the best chance for widespread, heavy rainfall from Don during the first 12 hours of landfall:


The exact location of this heavy rain envelope will likely change as the exact track and intensity of Don becomes better known over the coming 24-48 hours.    In addition, keep in mind that widespread lighter rain showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur well out to either side of the heavier rain core that stays closer to the center of the system (again, particularly to the right of the center).

Regardless of how this exactly pans-out, it is safe to say that widespread, beneficial rains are on the way to some folks in much of central and eastern Texas this weekend.  Stay tuned for more details as the system approaches over the coming few days!


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4 comments:

Shamrock said...

I hope Don drops oodles of rain on you with no severe/threatening winds, etc. I'm keeping my fingers crossed and my prayers are with you. Be careful!

Rob In Texas said...

Shamrock, thanks. With every mile he turns Southward, I feel the rain slipping through my rain gauge. I hope he turns back to the North before making landfall! Of course, we'll take anything we can get at this point!

Shamrock said...

I hope he does too! You guys need some serious rain! Drought is a dangerous thing. Is this normal for your part of Texas-the lack of rain?

Rob In Texas said...

Shamrock, no, it's not normal. In fact, many parts of Texas haven't been this dry since the dust bowl days. Hopefully between Don and some other systems later in the tropical season, some parts of the state will make somewhat of a recovery...