Thursday, July 28, 2011

Tropical Storm Don Stronger - Tracking South of Original Forecast

At 10pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Don was located about 370 miles Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX, or 325 miles East/Southeast of Brownsville, TX.  Don was moving toward the West/Northwest at 13 mph.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 29.47 inches of mercury.

As reported earlier this evening, Don took a jog to the West/Southwest by about 60 miles between 4 and 7pm CDT, which has resulted in a shift in the forecast track for the next 24-36 hours.  The revised forecast track brings landfall of the center of Don along the Texas coast about 40 miles to the South of Corpus Christi around Midnight on Friday night/Saturday morning:

As a result, Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended Southward, from South of Port Mansfield to the mouth of the Rio Grande.  The warning continues Northward as far as San Luis Pass.

Residents along the middle Texas coast should not let their guard down just yet.  Systems as (relatively) small as Don are notorious for sudden fluctuations  in both movement and intensity.

Widespread, locally heavy rainfall will take place along and near the center of Don Friday night and Saturday.  Currently, the heaviest rainfall (on the order of 3-5 inches) is forecast within the purple shaded areas on the image below:

The location of the heaviest rainfall is highly dependent upon the exact track of the center of Don.  Any further change in track will result in a shift of the focus for the heaviest rainfall.  Lesser intense showers and thunderstorms will extend up to 200 miles either side of the center of the system.

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