I hope that you, your family and friends have a blessed, safe and happy Thanksgiving! Be safe in your travels...
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Thursday, November 24, 2011
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
As the Models Turn...
In a post this morning, I made the mistake of remarking how much the computer forecast models had come to a greater consensus regarding the track of a strong upper-level storm system and cold shot for this weekend and early next week.
Well, the last 2 model runs have reverted back to the flip-flop we had been witnessing in prior days, and are now forecasting the middle and upper-level energy to move faster and not "cut-off" over the Southeast as earlier indicated.
Will this turn out to be just another flip and/or flop? Only time will tell, but here is how the GFS computer model forecasts now look for the same time periods indicated on the morning post (6pm CST on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday):
Well, the last 2 model runs have reverted back to the flip-flop we had been witnessing in prior days, and are now forecasting the middle and upper-level energy to move faster and not "cut-off" over the Southeast as earlier indicated.
Will this turn out to be just another flip and/or flop? Only time will tell, but here is how the GFS computer model forecasts now look for the same time periods indicated on the morning post (6pm CST on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday):
If this recent trend verifies, then there would be less of a chance of accumulating snow in the Deep South (Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi specifically), and a greater chance in the Midwest, Ohio Valley and the Appalachians. Also, the model hints at the possibility of greater impact on the Northeast by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week if the recent trends verify.
I had hoped to commit to a more precise outlook by this point in time, but there are still too many variables (literally) and too much uncertainty involved. If you live in or have travel plans across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, the Deep South or the Eastern quarter of the nation from this weekend on into the first half of next week, you'll want to pay close attention to the evolution of this system...
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Update on Holiday Weather...Including Big Weekend Storm...
The outlook that I posted on Saturday valid for today and Thanksgiving Day is still on track. A cold front is currently pushing rain and some Northern snow out along the Eastern seaboard this morning, and most areas will be cleared of precipitation by Noon or shortly after.
Thanksgiving Day will be quiet across all but the far western part of the country, where valley rain and mountain snow showers will be on the increase during the day as upper level energy increases across the region.
The next big event will be the weekend cold surge and associated storm system, which I first talked about yesterday.
As I mentioned yesterday, there was considerable division among the computer forecast models, but they are gradually moving toward more of a consensus solution during the last few runs.
Below are the GFS model images valid at 6pm CST on each of Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The left half of each image is the model's forecast of conditions near the middle levels of the atmosphere, while the right half of the image is the model's forecast of surface conditions. I have drawn the surface cold front in blue and circled the middle/upper level storm system in yellow on the respective portion of each image:
The near surface airmass is forecast to become cold enough for wintry precipitation, as noted by the dashed red lines immediately behind the cold front. This current model solution suggests that the upper level storm will slow way down and/or become nearly stationary over the lower Mississippi Valley region by late Sunday and into Monday. This could enhance the potential for snow and/or a wintry mix of precipitation across portions of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi by late in the weekend and early next week. This threat would then progress Eastward across the Deep South as the system moves slowly East into the middle of the week.
Below is the current GFS model forecast of the snow depth across this region valid 6pm CST Monday, November 28th (area being discussed circled in purple):
Keep in mind, the above image shows the actual depth of snow that is forecast to be on the ground at that time (currently forecast at 1-2 inches). More snow will have fallen prior to this time and melted before the ground became cool enough for accumulation. The model also has a harder than normal time forecasting snowfall in this type of situation. We should take the current 1-2 inch forecast lightly (literally) until it becomes more clear how this is going to unfold. What I mean to say is that given the right conditions, we could potentially be dealing with considerably more snow than the model is currently estimating.
The other important take away on this is that as things currently stand, if the above solutions come to fruition, this will be a Southern storm as far as the snowfall potential goes - not a Midwest storm.
I'll post more detailed updates as this situation continues to unfold. I am currently away from home base so I can't draw maps, etc., to really illustrate the outlook as I would like to. I plan to make an updated post with easier to understand mapping of the event later today...
Bottom line, if you live and/or have travel plans across this region for this weekend or into early next week, you definitely want to keep abreast of the latest updates on this developing weather situation...
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Thanksgiving Day will be quiet across all but the far western part of the country, where valley rain and mountain snow showers will be on the increase during the day as upper level energy increases across the region.
The next big event will be the weekend cold surge and associated storm system, which I first talked about yesterday.
As I mentioned yesterday, there was considerable division among the computer forecast models, but they are gradually moving toward more of a consensus solution during the last few runs.
Below are the GFS model images valid at 6pm CST on each of Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The left half of each image is the model's forecast of conditions near the middle levels of the atmosphere, while the right half of the image is the model's forecast of surface conditions. I have drawn the surface cold front in blue and circled the middle/upper level storm system in yellow on the respective portion of each image:
In a nutshell, this is still shaping up to be a very interesting / active situation for the upcoming post-Thanksgiving weekend. As you can see, a surge of cold air is forecast to rapidly advance Southward into the central and southern Plains on Saturday. As upper-level energy approaches from the West and Southwest, precipitation will break out along and either side of the cold front.
The near surface airmass is forecast to become cold enough for wintry precipitation, as noted by the dashed red lines immediately behind the cold front. This current model solution suggests that the upper level storm will slow way down and/or become nearly stationary over the lower Mississippi Valley region by late Sunday and into Monday. This could enhance the potential for snow and/or a wintry mix of precipitation across portions of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi by late in the weekend and early next week. This threat would then progress Eastward across the Deep South as the system moves slowly East into the middle of the week.
Below is the current GFS model forecast of the snow depth across this region valid 6pm CST Monday, November 28th (area being discussed circled in purple):
Keep in mind, the above image shows the actual depth of snow that is forecast to be on the ground at that time (currently forecast at 1-2 inches). More snow will have fallen prior to this time and melted before the ground became cool enough for accumulation. The model also has a harder than normal time forecasting snowfall in this type of situation. We should take the current 1-2 inch forecast lightly (literally) until it becomes more clear how this is going to unfold. What I mean to say is that given the right conditions, we could potentially be dealing with considerably more snow than the model is currently estimating.
The other important take away on this is that as things currently stand, if the above solutions come to fruition, this will be a Southern storm as far as the snowfall potential goes - not a Midwest storm.
I'll post more detailed updates as this situation continues to unfold. I am currently away from home base so I can't draw maps, etc., to really illustrate the outlook as I would like to. I plan to make an updated post with easier to understand mapping of the event later today...
Bottom line, if you live and/or have travel plans across this region for this weekend or into early next week, you definitely want to keep abreast of the latest updates on this developing weather situation...
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Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Joplin: Six Months Later...
Today marks the 6 month anniversary of the devastating tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri on May 22nd of this year.
A lot has happened since that tragic day 6 months ago: The Home Depot and Wal-Mart stores have re-opened:
...hundreds of homes have been rebuilt, and the restoration of that many more is well underway:
While hearts are still healing after the devastating event 6 months ago, it's certainly good to see that the community continues to pull together and rebuild.
For more on Rebuilding Joplin, go to this Facebook page. For more on the Joplin Tornado as covered on this blog, go to this table of contents link.
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A lot has happened since that tragic day 6 months ago: The Home Depot and Wal-Mart stores have re-opened:
...hundreds of homes have been rebuilt, and the restoration of that many more is well underway:
While hearts are still healing after the devastating event 6 months ago, it's certainly good to see that the community continues to pull together and rebuild.
For more on Rebuilding Joplin, go to this Facebook page. For more on the Joplin Tornado as covered on this blog, go to this table of contents link.
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What Do I Mean By A Lack of Consistency?
In a post earlier this evening regarding the potential for a major cooldown and associated storm system this coming weekend, I mentioned several times about how the computer model guidance is still inconsistent in handling the system.
As an example of what I was talking about, take a look at how the GFS model diverges over time in handling the system. The GFS is made up of an ensemble of 20 different computer model solutions that are merged together to reach a "consensus". Each of the ensemble models is represented by a different colored squiggly line on the images below. The lines represent what you would generally refer to as the subtropical (Southern) and polar (Northern) branches of jet stream wind flow across the U.S. at each given time period.
The ensembles start out in near unanimous agreement, as to the position of each branch of the jet stream, as shown on the image below (valid 6pm CST tomorrow, Wednesday, evening):
By 6pm CST Friday, the consensus is beginning to shift apart just a bit:
...and now you know why the Hair Club for Men (and the female version I'm sure) is a favorite among meteorologists at this time of the year...
Stay tuned, there's lots more hair pulling to come on this one...
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As an example of what I was talking about, take a look at how the GFS model diverges over time in handling the system. The GFS is made up of an ensemble of 20 different computer model solutions that are merged together to reach a "consensus". Each of the ensemble models is represented by a different colored squiggly line on the images below. The lines represent what you would generally refer to as the subtropical (Southern) and polar (Northern) branches of jet stream wind flow across the U.S. at each given time period.
The ensembles start out in near unanimous agreement, as to the position of each branch of the jet stream, as shown on the image below (valid 6pm CST tomorrow, Wednesday, evening):
By 6pm CST Friday, the consensus is beginning to shift apart just a bit:
...and by 6pm CST Sunday, it's a big squiggly mess out there:
Stay tuned, there's lots more hair pulling to come on this one...
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More on Major Cooldown, Storm System for this Weekend...
There is still considerable inconsistency among the computer forecast models as of this writing, but the overall trend for the last few days has pointed toward a significant shot of cold air along with the potential for widespread precipitation, some of the wintry variety, for the upcoming weekend. This trend will initially develop across the central third of the nation, followed by the Midwest and Mississippi Valley by the end of the weekend.
It's still too early to get very specific with the details, especially with the uncertainties that still exist at this time, but with the event falling during the big post-Thanksgiving travel weekend, I wanted to get a general "heads up" message out there as soon as possible...
For example, if the following image from the GFS computer forecast model verifies (valid 6pm CST on Saturday), it will be snowing across a good part of the Midwest and possibly as far South as eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Sunday morning:
Some of the models want to make this a "quick shot" type system, lasting less than 18-24 hours in a given location, and others want to "cut off" the upper-level energy, suggesting it will sit and park over the lower Mississippi Valley or southeast U.S. by early next week.
Stay tuned for more details...and if you have significant travel plans for Saturday, Sunday or Monday, you'll definitely want to keep abreast of the latest developments. Hopefully I'll be able to become more specific with the outlook as early as tomorrow...
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It's still too early to get very specific with the details, especially with the uncertainties that still exist at this time, but with the event falling during the big post-Thanksgiving travel weekend, I wanted to get a general "heads up" message out there as soon as possible...
For example, if the following image from the GFS computer forecast model verifies (valid 6pm CST on Saturday), it will be snowing across a good part of the Midwest and possibly as far South as eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Sunday morning:
Some of the models want to make this a "quick shot" type system, lasting less than 18-24 hours in a given location, and others want to "cut off" the upper-level energy, suggesting it will sit and park over the lower Mississippi Valley or southeast U.S. by early next week.
Stay tuned for more details...and if you have significant travel plans for Saturday, Sunday or Monday, you'll definitely want to keep abreast of the latest developments. Hopefully I'll be able to become more specific with the outlook as early as tomorrow...
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Tornado Watch Issued Eastward into Georgia
The above Tornado Watch is valid until 2am EST and includes southern portions of Atlanta as well as Macon and Columbus.
Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to advance Eastward into the region from Alabama. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats, although an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out this evening.
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