As the Models Turn...

In a post this morning, I made the mistake of remarking how much the computer forecast models had come to a greater consensus regarding the track of a strong upper-level storm system and cold shot for this weekend and early next week.  


Well, the last 2 model runs have reverted back to the flip-flop we had been witnessing in prior days, and are now forecasting the middle and upper-level energy to move faster and not "cut-off" over the Southeast as earlier indicated.


Will this turn out to be just another flip and/or flop?  Only time will tell, but here is how the GFS computer model forecasts now look for the same time periods indicated on the morning post (6pm CST on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday):

If this recent trend verifies, then there would be less of a chance of accumulating snow in the Deep South (Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi specifically), and a greater chance in the Midwest, Ohio Valley and the Appalachians.  Also, the model hints at the possibility of greater impact on the Northeast by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week if the recent trends verify.

I had hoped to commit to a more precise outlook by this point in time, but there are still too many variables (literally) and too much uncertainty involved.  If you live in or have travel plans across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, the Deep South or the Eastern quarter of the nation from this weekend on into the first half of next week, you'll want to pay close attention to the evolution of this system...

If you enjoy reading 'The Original Weather Blog', please be sure to "like" our facebook page!