Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Quick Update on Cold Air...

My apologies.... I promised an update yesterday regarding the quick cold shot that is moving down into the Plains during the next 24 hours, but time has simply run away from me the last 2 days.  We finally got some measurable rain today, 0.76 inches at my house here in Kyle, so that's certainly very welcome news!

Back to the subject at hand... a small piece of the cold air that is accumulating over Alaska and western Canada broke loose late in the weekend, and is moving down into the Plains as we speak.  Below is the GFS model's forecast of the departure from normal temperature valid 6pm CST tomorrow evening:

As you can see, temperatures of 10-15 degrees below normal are spreading Southward into the Plains for Wednesday.  The cooldown will, however, be short lived, as you can see on the same anomaly forecast valid 48 hours later, at 6pm CST Friday:

Temperatures by that time are forecast to be back to normal levels for this time of year.

Meanwhile, back up where this brief cold shot originated in Alaska and western Canada, the cold air continues to pile up - a trend that will continue right through the weekend.  This image is valid 12 Noon CST this Sunday, November 20th:

As you can see, temperatures are forecast to continue running some 35-40 degrees below seasonal normals across the region (circled in red on the image).  

As I pointed out in a post a few days ago, air this cold and dense can only sit in once place for so long.  Eventually, it will become so heavy that it forces its way Southeast into the U.S.  We'll continue to monitor this... so stay tuned for details!

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