Monday, November 7, 2011

Severe Storms, Tornadoes Likely OK / NW Texas Later Today...

As expected, thunderstorms formed yesterday evening and have continued overnight in parts of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle/northwest Texas.  This has taken place in the moist, increasingly unstable atmosphere across the region as upper-level energy increases from the West and Southwest.  Some hail and gusty winds will be possible with this activity during the morning and midday hours.

The main threat of severe weather, as indicated within the yellow shaded areas on the image below, will take place this afternoon and evening, as the atmosphere becomes more unstable and a series of upper-level weather disturbances and strong jet stream winds move over the region:

The most significant threat for severe weather is expected to take place initially across portions of southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas this afternoon, where tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and very large hail are likely.  The most significant tornado risk is indicated by the yellow and black hatched area on the image below:

...and the most significant large hail threat (greater than 2 inches in diameter) is indicated within the red and black hatched area on the following image:

Once the initial (and most significant) severe weather threat has taken place this afternoon and early evening, this activity will likely congeal into a solid line of strong to severe storms with damaging wind and large hail potential that will move East/Northeastward across the remainder of the severe weather outlook area this evening or early tonight.

Very heavy rainfall can also be expected across the region today and into tonight, with widespread 1-2 inch rains and localized amounts over 3 inches possible, as indicated on the image below:

This is a potentially dangerous weather situation for those in the affected areas, particularly within the enhanced tornado and large hail threat areas indicated above.  Please take the time to review severe weather preparedness tips and be prepared to seek shelter immediately if threatening weather is observed or a warning issued for your area today or tonight.

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