Monday, November 28, 2011

Update on Early Snowfall Across the Deep South...

The above image was just taken from the Memphis area radar. The small blue icons with snow flakes inside are recent snow depth reports. I've noted the snow depth in inches to the right of each icon.  As you can see, one half inch to around 1 inch of snow has fallen across portions of west-central Tennessee and northeast Arkansas so far.

The latest run of the GFS computer model is forecasting 3-4 inches of snow accumulation across this general area by Midnight CST this evening: 

The county-level, zoomed-in GFS based snowfall forecast images are not yet available from the latest run.  I'll post that image as soon as it becomes available.

This event will be the first time that we will have had the opportunity to evaluate the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model's performance during a snowfall episode.  Below is the latest image from that model, also valid Midnight CST later this evening:

I have highlighted the bright yellow patches of 6-8 inch snowfall that this particular model is forecasting (scale in inches at bottom of image).  The brighter green areas surrounding those heavier patches indicate a healthy 4-6 inch snowfall according to this model.  Again, I have not yet evaluated the HRRR during a snow event, so use this information with caution.  If nothing else, it should give us a good idea as to the general area(s) where the heavier snow is likely to take place, even if the magnitude (in inches of snowfall) is not 100% accurate.  It will be interesting to see how this model performs during the event.  Watch for later updates on this...

If you'd like to see a few photos of the snow as it falls across the region, please take a look at this post.  I'll continue to update it with more relevant photos as they come in...

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