Thursday, November 3, 2011

Severe Weather Threat Southern Plains/Mississippi Valley Next Week...

I will talk about this in greater detail in the weekly outlook for next week (which will be posted this Saturday), but I wanted to give a heads-up to folks in the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley that a pronounced severe weather threat appears to be coming together for the period Monday through Wednesday of next week.

The series of images below are the GFS computer model forecasts valid at 6pm CST (note that the time change will have taken place this Sunday, so we'll be back on Standard Time by then) on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week:

6pm CST Monday

6pm CST Tuesday

6pm CST Wednesday

Note the strong surface low pressure center and trailing cold front across the central and southern Plains on Monday, shifting Eastward through Wednesday.  Severe storms are likely to break out ahead of these features each day, with the greatest threat within the red circled regions on the same images below:

Monday PM Severe Threat

Tuesday PM Severe Threat

Wednesday PM Severe Threat

We'll have to see how the particulars come together, but at this time it appears that large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be a threat each day.  At this time of year, the middle and upper-level winds are stronger, which could lead to a pronounced tornado threat if other factors come into place just right, particularly in the outlook areas on Monday and Tuesday.  The wind fields are forecast to weaken by Wednesday, which could reduce the tornado threat in that area (but it will not be completely eliminated even at that time).

The only real question right now is how far North the severe weather threat will exist each day.  Residents just North of the threat areas outlined on the above images should keep an eye on the weather in case moisture and instability return farther Northward, which would result in a greater threat for those regions as well.

We'll keep an eye on this with more details to come over the next several days...

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