Monday, November 7, 2011

Severe Weather Update - Tulsa Metro Area...

Above is the latest image from the Tulsa weather radar, located near Inola. You can see a line of strong to severe storms advancing toward the city from the West, at about 35 mph.  My earlier prediction of an impact on Tulsa during the 10 o'clock hour appears to be on track.  As you can see, some isolated cells are developing immediately ahead of the main line, to the West of Sapulpa, which could impact portions of western Tulsa before the main line does.

Strong, gusty winds of 60-70 mph appear to be the main threat with this activity.

If we take a vertical slice out of that portion of the line immediately West of Tulsa, we can see that the higher reflectivity (precipitation) values only extend about 10,000 feet above ground level, which suggest that very large hail is not likely.  The higher reflectivity values would need to be indicated at higher levels of the atmosphere in order for large hail to be likely:

I would expect any hail to average 1 inch diameter or less (quarter size).  Very heavy rain is also a threat, and since individual cells within the line are moving Northeast and "training" across one another, localized rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches in little more than an hour are possible in some areas, which could lead to flash flooding.

The image below from the OKC area radar estimates that rainfall rates of 3.5 inches per hour are taking place Southwest of Oklahoma City, with 2.25 inches per hour indicated to the West of Tulsa (in the red shaded areas):

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