Severe Weather Update - Tulsa Metro Area...

Above is the latest image from the Tulsa weather radar, located near Inola. You can see a line of strong to severe storms advancing toward the city from the West, at about 35 mph.  My earlier prediction of an impact on Tulsa during the 10 o'clock hour appears to be on track.  As you can see, some isolated cells are developing immediately ahead of the main line, to the West of Sapulpa, which could impact portions of western Tulsa before the main line does.

Strong, gusty winds of 60-70 mph appear to be the main threat with this activity.

If we take a vertical slice out of that portion of the line immediately West of Tulsa, we can see that the higher reflectivity (precipitation) values only extend about 10,000 feet above ground level, which suggest that very large hail is not likely.  The higher reflectivity values would need to be indicated at higher levels of the atmosphere in order for large hail to be likely:

I would expect any hail to average 1 inch diameter or less (quarter size).  Very heavy rain is also a threat, and since individual cells within the line are moving Northeast and "training" across one another, localized rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches in little more than an hour are possible in some areas, which could lead to flash flooding.

The image below from the OKC area radar estimates that rainfall rates of 3.5 inches per hour are taking place Southwest of Oklahoma City, with 2.25 inches per hour indicated to the West of Tulsa (in the red shaded areas):

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Severe Weather Update - Oklahoma / Northwest Texas...

The above radar mosaic image shows a nearly solid line of strong to severe thunderstorms extending from extreme southeast Kansas into northcentral and southwest Oklahoma, and extreme northwest Texas.  Individual thunderstorms within the line are moving Northeast at 35 mph, while line is beginning to make a move out Eastward.

Large hail, damaging straight line winds and an isolated tornado are possible with stronger storms within the line.

Based on present movement, strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to slowly advance across the OKC Metro area during the next 90 minutes.

The northern end of the line is likely to impact the Tulsa Metro area during the 10 o'clock hour (could be earlier if the line accelerates Eastward over the next hour).

The tornado threat will continue to diminish as the evening wears on, however isolated tornado development still cannot be ruled out completely.  Strong, gusty winds in excess of 60 mph and hail up to golfball size will be the primary threat with this activity.  I would expect the current Tornado Watch (which expires at 9pm CST for much of western Oklahoma) to be replaced by a new watch shortly.

Very heavy rainfall is also continuing, and is causing flash flooding in some low lying and poor drainage areas.  This threat will exist in areas that have repeat heavy rainfall for the remainder of this evening and into the overnight hours.  If the area of thunderstorms currently over northwest Texas organizes and moves Northeast into the Oklahoma City area later tonight, a significant flooding threat could result as heavy rains are already falling across the area at this time.

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Update: Storm Reorganizing; Still Has Tornadic Potential - Moving Toward Calumet...

The storm we've been tracking West and Southwest of Oklahoma City is now right over Binger, but fortunately the circulation has weakened. I believe this storm is in a reorganizing stage, so the tornado threat has by no means ended.  A tornado could touch down again at any time.  This storm is tracking North/Northeast to Northeast at 35 mph, and the rotation will pass immediately East of Lookeba.  This circulation will eventually pass very near Calumet on its present track.  Folks between Lookeba and Calumet should take immediate tornado precautions.

This storm will pass West of El Reno based on its present movement.

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Midday Severe Weather Update for Oklahoma / Texas...

The above composite radar and surface weather map was taken shortly before Noon CST. Showers and thunderstorms had become widespread along and generally North of a warm front snaking its way across northern Oklahoma into extreme southeast Kansas.  An area of low pressure was developing over the southern Texas panhandle, while a dryline was taking shape Southward from the low into West Texas.

The latest visible satellite image (below) shows that overcast conditions are thinning in parts of southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas, and several breaks in the cloud cover are now visible:

The additional sunshine across this region during the afternoon hours will lead to an even more unstable low-level airmass, while Southerly surface winds draw moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.  Meanwhile, a strong upper-level weather disturbance will approach the region from the Southwest, along with increasing jet stream winds from that direction as well.

As a result, severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop across west-central and southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas by late afternoon, corresponding with the Western edge of the red and black hatched area on the image below:

This activity will have the potential of producing very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter), damaging winds and tornadoes.  A few of the tornadoes could be strong and/or long tracked.  Once formed, this activity will move and/or develop toward the East and Northeast across the remainder of the red shaded area on the above image through early evening.

By mid to late evening, this activity is likely to congeal into one or more lines of strong to severe thunderstorms which will move Northeast across much of the remainder of the region outlined in yellow and brown on the same image.  By that time, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out even into the nighttime hours.

This is a potentially dangerous weather situation for the affected areas.   Please remain alert across this region this afternoon, evening and into tonight.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or other local sources and be prepared to seek shelter if threatening weather is observed or a warning issued.

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Severe Weather Update - Kansas / Missouri / Oklahoma / Arkansas

A broken band of thunderstorms continues to advance southeast from central Missouri into southeast Kansas at midday (see radar image above), while a smaller cluster of storms continues to approach northwest Arkansas from extreme northeast Oklahoma (see radar image below):

This activity has either continued Southeast from overnight thunderstorms, or developed along outflow boundaries that were left behind by the same overnight activity.  Some of these storms may intensify and become severe over adjacent portions of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri later this afternoon as heating increases and the atmosphere becomes more unstable.

The "main show" still appears likely to develop later this afternoon and into this evening across portions of southern and central Kansas.  Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along several boundaries in this region by late afternoon, and then organize as they move and develop toward the East and then Southeast later this evening and overnight.

While an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out during the initial development stages of this activity over parts of Kansas, damaging winds (possibly widespread) will be the primary threat with this activity.  This activity is expected to congeal into a larger complex of storms, which is likely to move into Northern portions of Oklahoma by late evening or overnight (while still producing a damaging wind threat).

Large hail will also be possible with this activity, particularly over Kansas and near the Oklahoma border.

If you live across this region, please remain alert and listen for later statements, watches, and possible warnings.

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