Monday, November 7, 2011

Severe Weather Update - Oklahoma / Northwest Texas...

The above radar mosaic image shows a nearly solid line of strong to severe thunderstorms extending from extreme southeast Kansas into northcentral and southwest Oklahoma, and extreme northwest Texas.  Individual thunderstorms within the line are moving Northeast at 35 mph, while line is beginning to make a move out Eastward.

Large hail, damaging straight line winds and an isolated tornado are possible with stronger storms within the line.

Based on present movement, strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to slowly advance across the OKC Metro area during the next 90 minutes.

The northern end of the line is likely to impact the Tulsa Metro area during the 10 o'clock hour (could be earlier if the line accelerates Eastward over the next hour).

The tornado threat will continue to diminish as the evening wears on, however isolated tornado development still cannot be ruled out completely.  Strong, gusty winds in excess of 60 mph and hail up to golfball size will be the primary threat with this activity.  I would expect the current Tornado Watch (which expires at 9pm CST for much of western Oklahoma) to be replaced by a new watch shortly.

Very heavy rainfall is also continuing, and is causing flash flooding in some low lying and poor drainage areas.  This threat will exist in areas that have repeat heavy rainfall for the remainder of this evening and into the overnight hours.  If the area of thunderstorms currently over northwest Texas organizes and moves Northeast into the Oklahoma City area later tonight, a significant flooding threat could result as heavy rains are already falling across the area at this time.

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