Sunday, November 20, 2011

Update on Severe Weather Potential Next Few Days...

A threat of severe weather will exist in a relatively small area of the southern Plains today, and expand in coverage into Monday and Tuesday as the threat shifts Southward and then Eastward...

This will be a relatively brief post, as "Operation Griswold" continues, but I wanted to give at least a quick update on how things are progressing with the severe weather threat for early this holiday week...

The severe weather threat today will be the least widespread of the 3 day period, as shown within the orange outlined area on the latest SPC severe weather outlook below:

Strong and a few severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the above area along and ahead of a cold front by mid to late afternoon and into this evening.  Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible with the stronger storms, and an isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out, though that is not expected to be a widespread threat today.

By Monday, the threat of severe weather will cover much the same area, but expand in areal coverage, especially to the Southwest.  Severe storms are forecast within the area outlined in orange on the image below, with an even  higher threat inside the area outlined in red:

Both low-level instability and middle and upper level support will be stronger on Monday, so a more potent round of severe weather is likely in the affected areas.  Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will all be possible with activity on Monday afternoon and evening.

By Tuesday, the severe weather threat will shift rapidly to the East, covering much of the lower and middle Mississippi Valley region, as well as portions of the Tennessee Valley.  Severe storms are possible anywhere within the orange outlined area on the image below, with the greatest threat inside the red outlined area:

Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will all be possible with the activity on Tuesday.  At this time, the tornado threat does not appear to be as significant as compared to the episode that we saw across this region last week.  This is mainly due to the fact that there will be less turning of the wind direction with height across the region this time around.

Folks living across all of the severe weather threat areas outlined above should remain alert the next few days.  Monitor NOAA Weather Radio or listen to trusted local media sources for later updates, watches and warnings.  Most of all, be prepared to seek shelter immediately if threatening weather approaches your area.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat with strong to severe storms the next few days, mainly from Oklahoma and Arkansas on Eastward.  Flash Flood Watches have already been posted across eastern Oklahoma and a large part of Arkansas (as shown in green on the image below):

Below are the latest rainfall forecasts for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday from the HPC:

The total rainfall potential for the entire 3 day period is shown below:

For those wondering about travel weather on Wednesday and into Thanksgiving Day, the outlook that I posted yesterday is still on track...

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